How the top of the Draft rankings have played out over the past 5 years -- and so far this year
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MLB Pipeline just expanded and updated its Draft Prospects list to a Top 150 last week, and we'll do so again with a Top 200 later this month and a Top 250 in June.
This got me to wondering about how much change we typically have atop our rankings. Let's take a quick look back at how the first 10 spots have played out during the last five years:
2021
No. 1 in December: Kumar Rocker
No. 1 in July: Marcelo Mayer
No. 1 overall pick: Henry Davis
Out of the Top 10 from December: Matt McLain, Adrian del Castillo, Jaden Hill, Jud Fabian, Alex Binelas
Into the Top 10 in July: Kahlil Watson, Davis, Jackson Jobe, Brady House, Colton Cowser
The first post-pandemic Draft was an odd one, and none of the 12 players above has distinguished himself in the Majors at this point. Complete list »
2022
No. 1 in December: Druw Jones
No. 1 in July: Jones
No. 1 overall pick: Jackson Holliday
Out of the Top 10 from December: Brock Jones, Chase DeLauter, Dylan Lesko
Into the Top 10 in July: Holliday, Kevin Parada, Cam Collier
The Jones versus Holliday debate went on for much of the spring after the latter improved significantly following a lackluster summer on the showcase circuit, and the Orioles made the right decision at No. 1. A broken foot dinged DeLauter's stock and continued to plague him in pro ball, but he's finally healthy this year. Complete list »
2023
No. 1 in December: Dylan Crews
No. 1 in July: Paul Skenes
No. 1 overall pick: Skenes
Out of the Top 10 from December: Jacob Gonzalez, Enrique Bradfield, Hurston Waldrep
Into the Top 10 in July: Rhett Lowder, Kyle Teel, Noble Meyer
Even with several industry sources telling us we shouldn't rank a pitcher No. 1 on our list, we flipped from Crews to Skenes in June and feel good about that call. Complete list »
2024
No. 1 in December: JJ Wetherholt
No. 1 in July: Travis Bazzana
No. 1 overall pick: Bazzana
Out of the Top 10 from December: Vance Honeycutt, Tommy White, Seaver King
Into the Top 10 in July: Chase Burns, Hagen Smith, Bryce Rainer
Wetherholt might have stayed No. 1 in our rankings and gone No. 1 in the Draft if not for a hamstring injury. This was the most loaded top of a Draft in the 2020s, with seven of the first nine picks already reaching the big leagues, including Konnor Griffin and Nick Kurtz. Complete list »
2025
No. 1 in December: Ethan Holliday
No. 1 in July: Holliday
No. 1 overall pick: Eli Willits
Out of the Top 10 from December: Jace LaViolette, Tyler Bremner, Kayson Cunningham, Xavier Neyens, Kruz Schoolcraft, Brendan Summerhill
Into the Top 10 in July: Kade Anderson, Willits, Billy Carlson, Liam Doyle, JoJo Parker, Kyson Witherspoon
We had more Top 10 turnover last year than in the previous four Drafts, and none of it was injury related. It was more a case of bumper crops of college pitchers and high school shortstops emerging, and those demographics claimed 10 of the first 12 selections. Complete list »
In the last five years, the No. 1 prospect switched three times between December and June. UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky headlined both our 2026 Top 100 and Top 150, and he probably won't relinquish his lofty standing. He's the favorite to go 1-1 to the White Sox as well.
On average, four prospects have moved from outside the Top 10 in December to inside by June during the past five Drafts. We've already had three changes this year from December to May, with Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey, UC Santa Barbara right-hander Jackson Flora and Mississippi high school outfielder Eric Booth taking leaps forward this spring. They nudged out Louisiana State outfielder Derek Curiel, South Carolina prep left-hander Carson Bolemon and Coastal Carolina righty Cameron Flukey.
The Draft is just 67 days away, set to start July 11 as part of the All-Star Week festivities in Philadelphia. Can't wait to see how it plays out!