MLB execs poll: Biggest name moved at Trade Deadline will be ...

The Trade Deadline is still three months away, but it’s possible we could see more early action on that front than we have in several years.

After relieving Rob Thomson of his managerial duties this week, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said that trade talks have already been taking place around the Majors. While no deals appear imminent, slow starts by a number of expected contenders could hasten trade timelines within some front offices.

“I’ve had trade conversations earlier than I ever have this year,” Dombrowski said. “Other clubs haven’t been doing very well, either. Clubs have called around.”

As part of our annual first-month executives poll, we asked 20 front-office members whom they believed would be the biggest name moved by the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline. Some of the names have been rumored trade targets for the past year or two. Others may surprise you:

Sandy Alcantara, Marlins (4 votes)
CJ Abrams, Nationals (3 votes)
Joe Ryan, Twins (3 votes)
Yordan Alvarez, Astros (2 votes)
Luis Arraez, Giants (1 vote)
Jarren Duran, Red Sox (1 vote)
Seth Lugo, Royals (1 vote)
Freddy Peralta, Mets (1 vote)
Tarik Skubal, Tigers (1 vote)
Mike Trout, Angels (1 vote)
Michael Wacha, Royals (1 vote)
Zack Wheeler, Phillies (1 vote)

Sandy Alcantara was also the most popular answer to this question a year ago despite a 8.42 ERA through his first seven starts after returning from Tommy John surgery. The 2022 National League Cy Young Award winner settled in after his rough start, though he still posted a 4.70 ERA over his final 24 outings.

The right-hander has looked more like his old self this season, going 3-2 with a 3.04 ERA through seven starts. His 47 1/3 innings were tied for the most in the Majors entering Friday, and while his fastball velocity is similar to last season, his Statcast numbers are better across the board, specifically his hard-hit percentage, barrel percentage and whiff percentage.

“He looks healthy again and is pitching well,” an American League executive said. “Nothing moves the trade market like a good starting pitcher.”

Alcantara is earning $17.3 million this season and has a $21 million club option for 2027, providing the desired club control that teams often look for in trade targets. The Marlins are hanging around the .500 mark this season, but unless they plan on making a large financial commitment to extend Alcantara, his value will never be higher than it will be this summer given that additional year of control.

“Given the price of free-agent starting pitching, he’s a pretty good bargain,” an NL executive said. “There are some good pitchers on the market next winter, but they’re going to cost a lot.”

Two players who appeared on the trade rumor mill during the past year were named by three executives: Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams and Twins right-hander Joe Ryan.

Abrams has posted a bWAR between 3.3 and 3.5 in each of the past three seasons, averaging 19 home runs, 63 RBIs and a .736 OPS in 144 games per year during that stretch. The 25-year-old is off to the best start of his career in 2026, hitting eight home runs with 26 RBIs and a .960 OPS in his 31 games this season.

The drawback to Abrams’ game is his defense. His minus-43 Outs Above Average since the start of 2023 – which includes a minus-5 mark this season – isn’t just the worst mark among Major League shortstops; it’s the lowest of any player in the game at any position.

“His defense isn’t great, but it’s probably better than the metrics suggest,” an NL executive said. “If he keeps hitting the way he has this year, the bat could make up for any defensive deficiencies.”

Abrams is earning $4.2 million this season and is arbitration-eligible in both 2027 and '28. The Nationals are a few games below .500, and given the state of their rebuild – and their organizational depth at shortstop – it wouldn’t be a surprise if they field calls on Abrams this summer.

Ryan has been a consistent presence in the Twins' rotation since 2022, though last year marked the first time he has made 30 starts in a season, posting a career-best 3.42 ERA in a career-high 171 innings. He’s 2-3 with a 3.76 ERA in seven starts in 2026.

“It seemed like [Ryan] was someone that they were considering trading last year,” an AL executive said. “They’re looking like they’ll be in a similar spot this year.”

The right-hander is earning $6.1 million this season and has a $100,000 buyout of a $13 million mutual option for 2027 that figures to be declined. That would send Ryan back to the arbitration process for a final time, as he’s set to become a free agent after the 2027 season.

“Unless someone like [Tarik Skubal] becomes available, guys like Alcantara and Ryan will be the best option for teams looking for frontline rotation help,” an NL executive said. “And that’s assuming they’re even available.”

Yordan Alvarez was the only other player to receive more than one vote, with one NL executive theorizing that the Astros’ 12-20 start could prompt big moves in Houston. Even if that was to happen, trading Alvarez would be a bold move to say the least.

The 28-year-old slugger has been the best hitter in baseball this season, slashing .356/.462/.737 (1.199 OPS) with 12 home runs and 27 RBIs through 32 games. He’s in the fourth season of a six-year, $115 million extension, with a $26.8 million salary each year through 2028.

Of the players receiving one vote apiece, there were impending free agents (Skubal, Freddy Peralta and Luis Arraez), controllable starters on underperforming teams (Zack Wheeler, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha), as well as Jarren Duran, though his slow start to 2026 may have impacted his trade value.

Wheeler is set to earn $42 million this season and next, and while he’s a key component to the Phillies’ championship aspirations, their 12-19 start could prompt Dombrowski to shake things up by the Deadline.

“If Philly can’t right the ship, how heavy of a reset will they go through at the Deadline?” an AL executive said. “While it hasn’t been Dombrowski’s style to sell at the Trade Deadline, the organization may have a chance to fully reload for years to come if they make some hard calls in July if a trip to the playoffs is looking bleak.”

The 12-19 Red Sox could face a similar scenario, and the outfield would be a logical place for chief baseball officer Craig Breslow to start. Duran was a popular name on the trade market last offseason, but his disappointing start – he’s slashing .170/.231/.250 with one home run in 108 plate appearances this season – has cratered his trade value.

“You hold on to Duran all offseason and rebuff overtures for him,” an AL executive recently said. “I don’t know what you could even get for him right now.”

The most eye-popping name on the list, however, is Mike Trout, the three-time AL MVP who is having a bounce-back season in 2026 after dealing with injuries in recent years.

Would the Angels actually try to trade Trout, who has never shown an inclination of wanting to play elsewhere? Probably not. Even the executive who voted for Trout admitted it was simply a “hot take.”