3 weeks in, here's what the new rules have produced

By | April 21, 2023

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It’s been easy to spot the dramatic effect Major League Baseball’s new rules for 2023 -- the pitch timer, larger bases and restrictions on shifting and pickoff attempts -- have had on the game.

Three weeks into the season, we’ve seen crisper games with more action and less downtime. Players are running wild on the basepaths, the average game time is down significantly and scoring is up.

Here’s a look at some of the most telling numbers from the first three weeks of action.

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Stolen-base success rate is at an all-time high

Teams are not only attempting more steals than they did in 2022, they’re attempting more steals than they did in each season since 2012.

Combined stolen-base attempts per game, 2021-23

Meanwhile, runners are succeeding on these attempts at an 80.8% clip, which would set an all-time record.

Stolen-base success rate, 2021-23

Though it’s probably safe to say the running game has been aided by the shorter distance between bases caused by the larger bags, the limit on disengagements -- a step-off or pickoff attempt -- arguably has been even more impactful.

Pitchers are able to freely attempt only two disengagements per plate appearance, whether to reset the pitch timer or try to nab a baserunner. If they try it a third time, they need to successfully get the runner out or they’ll be called for a balk.

Runners have taken advantage of this rule by successfully stealing at an 83.9% rate after the first disengagement and a 90% rate after the second, compared to 78.9% when the disengagement count is zero.

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More pulled grounders are going for hits

As teams instituted more shifts and became more sophisticated in how they utilized them over the past decade, we saw a drop in batting average on balls in play, especially on pulled ground balls.

However, with teams now required to have at least four players on the infield dirt and at least two infielders completely on each side of second base, more of these balls are finding holes.

BABIP on pulled grounders is up 19 percentage points among all batters year over year -- 25 points for left-handed batters and 17 points for right-handed batters. Overall, BABIP has increased 7 points on all types of balls in play since 2022.

Teams are scoring more, but average game time is down

After averaging 8.5 runs per game last season, teams have combined to score 9.1 runs per game in 2023. It’s the same number of runs per game teams averaged in 2021. However, games on average have been 33 minutes shorter than they were in 2021 and 27 minutes shorter than they were in 2022.

Average time of a nine-inning game, 2021-23

In other words, we’ve seen more action packed into a shorter amount of time.