Will these absurd small-sample surges carry into 2026?

Baseball is filled with wild performances in tiny samples. Many are just statistical noise, but sometimes a seemingly absurd stretch proves more meaningful than anyone realized.

With that in mind, we pored through the 2025 data to find nine of the most interesting -- and extreme -- small-sample-size success stories to watch in '26.

All of these surges could end up being harbingers of something bigger in the year ahead.

Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox

Key stat: 60.3% hard-hit rate / 20.0% chase rate combo

MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 overall prospect at the time of his debut last June, Anthony not only lived up to the hype as a rookie but also showed an underlying offensive profile that placed him alongside some of the game’s elite bats. Combining strong plate discipline with a fast, efficient stroke, the 21-year-old was one of only two hitters (minimum 300 PAs) to post a hard-hit rate above 55% and a chase rate below 21%. The other? Juan Soto. Add in his superb defense, and Anthony could be a dark horse MVP candidate for Boston in 2026.

Kyle Bradish, SP, Orioles

Key stat: 29.4-point difference between strikeout and walk rates

Although their 2025 season was a major disappointment, the Orioles did have some positive developments on the starting pitching front that bode well for ’26. Trevor Rogers’ strong bounceback year drew most of the attention, but Bradish was also brilliant over six starts in his return from Tommy John surgery. Bradish has a fourth-place AL Cy Young finish on his resume, so his success last season wasn’t entirely out of the blue, but the level of dominance he displayed was eye opening nonetheless. Especially impressive were the 29-year-old’s 37.3% strikeout rate and 29.4 K-BB% (strikeout rate minus walk rate), which ranked first and second, respectively, among those with at least 30 innings after he came off the IL on Aug. 26. Health is obviously paramount, but those figures suggest Bradish could be capable of breaking into a higher stratosphere in 2026.

Chase Burns, SP, Reds

Key stat: 14.94 K/9 as a starter

Debuting less than a year after the Reds took him second overall in the MLB Draft, Burns endured an uneven rookie year that was interrupted by a flexor strain and included a 5.24 ERA over eight starts. Still, the righty showed flashes of the potential that made him such a highly touted prospect, posting double-digit K’s in four of those outings en route to a ridiculous 14.94 K/9 -- the highest among pitchers who made multiple starts. Injuries are a lingering concern for both, but Burns and fellow flamethrower Hunter Greene could give the Reds one of the game’s most electric rotation duos in 2026.

Carter Jensen, C, Royals

Key stat: .447 expected wOBA in 69 PAs

While longtime Royals catcher Salvador Perez remains a central figure for the club, having just signed a two-year extension, the veteran’s heir apparent is poised to play a major role for Kansas City in 2026. As evidenced by his eye-popping Statcast profile, Jensen (MLB Pipeline’s No. 18 overall prospect) immediately announced himself as one of the game’s most dangerous young bats after debuting last September. In fact, the only player with a higher xwOBA -- a Statcast metric that measures a hitter’s performance based on his quality of contact, plus strikeouts and walks -- than Jensen over the final month of the season (minimum 50 PAs) was Aaron Judge.

Daylen Lile, OF, Nationals

Key stat: 1.212 OPS in September/October

Lile took some time to find his groove after making his big league debut last May, but once he got going, there was no stopping him. Lile’s 1.212 OPS and 230 wRC+ both ranked second in MLB after the calendar flipped to September, putting him smack dab in the middle of Judge and Shohei Ohtani. In Expos/Nationals history, only Bryce Harper, Juan Soto and Alfonso Soriano have had a better month than that (minimum 100 PAs). With president of baseball operations Paul Toboni and manager Blake Butera steering the Nationals into a new era, Lile will enter the 2026 campaign looking to cement his place as one of Washington’s cornerstones while the team sorts out its core for the years ahead.

Nolan McLean, SP, Mets

Key stat: 30.3% strikeout rate / 60.2% ground-ball rate combo

Ground-ball specialists typically don’t double as premier strikeout artists, but McLean (MLB Pipeline's No. 6 overall prospect) did both during his eight-start debut season with the Mets in 2025. In fact, the 24-year-old became the first starting pitcher in the pitch-tracking era (since 2008) to post a ground-ball rate of at least 60% on 100 or more batted balls while also striking out at least 30% of opposing hitters. That combination contributed to a 2.06 ERA, making McLean one of the Mets' few bright spots amid a second-half collapse that cost the team a playoff berth. The right-hander looms as one of New York’s most important pitchers entering 2026.

Colson Montgomery, SS, White Sox

Key stat: 21 HR from July 22-Sept. 27 (56 games)

Montgomery brought some serious thunder to the White Sox lineup during his abbreviated rookie season, becoming one of the fastest players in MLB history to reach 20 career home runs. The youngster did that in just his 69th game, adding one more for good measure the next day to cap a stretch that saw him go deep 21 times in 56 games. Montgomery did strike out nearly 30% of the time in that span, continuing the contact struggles that slowed his rise as a prospect. Even so, his power potential at shortstop makes him a key piece of Chicago’s ongoing rebuild.

Emmet Sheehan, SP, Dodgers

Key stat: 13 hits allowed, 45 K’s in final 32 1/3 innings

With the Dodgers’ stacked rotation at full strength, Sheehan was relegated to relief duty in October, throwing just 7 1/3 innings during the team’s playoff run. As a result, it’s easy to forget how truly dominant he was down the stretch. From Aug. 25 through the end of the regular season, Sheehan ranked second in ERA (1.11), third in FIP (1.99) and first in expected ERA (2.11) among those with at least 30 innings. Opponents slashed just .117/.183/.189 against him in that span. The 26-year-old may continue to fly under the radar on Los Angeles’ star-studded roster as the 2026 season gets underway, but if he maintains the form he showed late last season, he’s going to be impossible to ignore.

Trey Yesavage, SP, Blue Jays

Key stat: Combined 38.5% whiff rate as SP in regular season and playoffs

Yesavage turned himself into a household name in short order last October, becoming a postseason star for the Blue Jays after beginning the year in Single-A and making just three big league starts during the regular season. But even with all of the attention he’s already received (deservedly so), the full extent of his success warrants a further look. Of particular note? The righty’s 38.5% whiff rate as a starter, which put him atop the MLB leaderboard (minimum 300 swings as SP). That dominance was fueled in part by Yesavage’s devastating splitter, which generated a staggering 59.1% whiff rate across his eight starts.