The stat that helps explain McLean's up-and-down season
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Standout rookie Nolan McLean (4-5, 4.03 ERA) is slated to toe the rubber for the Mets against the Blue Jays on Tuesday, one half of an intriguing matchup against veteran Kevin Gausman (4-6, 4.36 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET.
Perhaps the best news for New York fans? The game is being played in Toronto.
McLean’s 4.03 ERA has been a true tale of two halves in 2026. The 24-year-old righty is 2-4 in nine starts at home with a 5.03 ERA, while he's 2-1 in seven starts on the road with a much better 2.85 ERA.
That gives him the 20th-best road ERA among pitchers with a minimum of 40 innings, behind a list littered with names you’d usually expect to be there: Cam Schlittler, Jacob Misiorowski, Shohei Ohtani, Zack Wheeler or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. None of those stars, though, also find themselves in the bottom 10 qualified pitchers in home ERA; McLean is ninth-worst.
The only pitcher with a worse home ERA and a better road ERA this season is Phillies lefty Jesús Luzardo (6.60/1.55), who had been a fascinating case study in expected vs. actual results this season. However, five more solid innings on Sunday helped Luzardo continue to right the ship.
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Eye-opening splits are not the only similarity McLean shares with Luzardo. McLean’s actual ERA is fairly significantly inflated over his 3.42 expected ERA, which accounts for amount of contact and quality of contact. He also has a solid 3.69 FIP -- focusing on outcomes the pitcher has the most control over -- that portends better results. His strong ground ball rate (47.1%) in front of a struggling Mets defense is one culprit.
Of course, Gausman has followed a similar story this season, albeit in the opposite sense and less extreme. The righty has a 3.70 ERA at home and a 5.40 ERA on the road. Gausman has struggled overall in June, pitching to a 7.62 ERA across five starts.
McLean looked to be cruising his last time out against the Cubs, going four scoreless innings before Chicago tagged him with three runs in each of the fifth and sixth innings, including a pair of two-out home runs. He struck out nine for the second straight start.