With NL Wild Card hanging in balance, Padres face big decisions with Miller's workload

Workload has always been a top-of-mind concern when it comes to Mason Miller. The Padres have toed a fine line with that when deploying their ace closer.

But in the midst of a tightly-contested race with the Diamondbacks for the final National League Wild Card spot in the twilight of the regular season, it’s hard not to wonder how much more of a factor Miller’s usage could become as San Diego vies for its third consecutive postseason berth.

“It’s meaningful baseball in September, that’s all you ask for as a baseball player,” Miller said. “Regardless of what is happening and how we got here, this is the situation we’re in.”

Could a fully-unleashed version of Miller -- one who consistently pitches past his usual requisite one-inning save situation or is called upon several days in a row to get the biggest outs of the game -- be realized in the Padres’ sprint to the finish? We’ve already seen signs of that being the case.

Miller’s last three outings have come within four days of each other, including his two-inning appearance against the Yankees last Friday that saw him lock down the win in the 10th inning after entering in the ninth -- just the second time he’s pitched two full frames this season.

He also made four appearances in five days for the second time from Aug. 21-25 (previously did so June 5-9), a stretch that, prior to this year, he’s never had in his career.

It’s clear the Padres are leaning on Miller at a higher rate as the games are becoming more meaningful. It’s hardly a surprise given his absurd level of dominance. His 1.17 ERA is the lowest in the Majors and his astronomical 48.5% strikeout rate is the highest in baseball by over 10% (min. 60 innings pitched). On top of that, Miller’s 34 saves rank second in the NL to only the Cardinals’ Riley O’Brien’s 36.

But there’s an equally important element the Padres are having to consider here.

Miller is creeping up on a career high in innings, currently just 3 2/3 shy of matching his 65 frames in 2024. He’s been featured in more games overall both this season and last year, when he was acquired by the Padres from the A’s at the Trade Deadline, but he has yet to exceed that innings mark. His recent workload suggests that he could blow past that threshold before season’s end.

“You take different years and you learn different things,” Miller said. “Two years ago was my career high in innings, but I only threw in 55 games. Last year I threw fewer innings, but I felt like I was pitching more, so it’s a little bit of a different animal. This year I feel like I’ve been able to keep my body feeling really good the entire season. It’s allowed me to pitch four out of five days for the first time, three days in a row.”

San Diego’s ultimate priority is keeping Miller healthy, and a higher workload is almost never the pathway toward that -- quite the opposite actually. Padres manager Craig Stammen has talked about the challenges associated with preserving his All-Star right-hander as much as possible in an effort to maintain his dominance throughout the season.

Stammen has had to do the same thing with lefty setup man Adrian Morejon, who has already pitched past his previous career high in innings and appeared in three consecutive games earlier this week.

Having one of the league’s most formidable bullpens has made sharing the load much easier. San Diego entered Friday with the third-most innings pitched out of the ‘pen (618 2/3) and the fourth-lowest ERA (3.42) in the sport. Along with all the options at Stammen's disposable currently -- Bradgley Rodriguez, Yuki Matsui, Wandy Peralta, Kyle Hart, among others -- the Padres are anticipating that rehabbing All-Star right-hander Jason Adam will make his return sometime over the final two weeks, further strengthening the group.

“Sometimes it’s hard, you’re in a bullpen where guys are constantly getting the ball,” Miller said.

So is it even worth asking Miller to shoulder more during the pennant chase? Does it make sense given the bullpen depth the Padres have had all season long?

Maybe not. But then again, it’s September, and more than anything, you need your best players on the field as much as they can be. That’s what this part of the season is all about. The rate at which the Padres have used Miller recently reflects that sentiment.

“We’ve kind of gotten here on the back of the bullpen, in a lot of ways,” Miller said. “It takes a complete team effort to win a game, but we’ve won a lot of close games, we feel comfortable playing in close games. I think we know more might be asked … but we’re prepared to go every night.”