Down 0-2 in NLDS, Padres confident they have what it takes to come back

SAN DIEGO -- The Padres don’t have to achieve the impossible. Only the unlikely.

Trailing two games to none to Milwaukee in the National League Division Series, they’re being counted out by many. Among those doubters: Hall of Famer and FS1 analyst David Ortiz (who would know a thing or two about postseason comebacks).

“It’s over, I’m sorry,” Ortiz said on the postgame show after San Diego’s Game 2 loss to the Brewers on Sunday. But -- as the Padres are quick to remind you -- they’ve been counted out before.

“Those aren't the first comments that we've heard about us this year,” said Manny Machado. “It's been all year from everyone. But here we are once again with our backs against the wall. We've overcome it once, and we can do it again. And we're going to do it again. Just a matter of going out there and doing our job and focusing on what we can control.”

Indeed, in late July, the Padres sat three games below .500 in 11th place in the National League. They romped to a 41-18 finish and the No. 4 seed in the NL. So how do they channel that energy again to mount a comeback for the ages?

Here’s a look at the Padres’ path to getting back in this series:

1. Ride this Petco Park crowd
No secret here. The Padres love playing at home. They went 51-30 at Petco Park during the regular season. They rode the atmospheres during the Wild Card Series to two emphatic victories over the Cubs.

“We're looking forward to getting back home,” said Ty France after the Padres’ Game 2 loss. “You heard how loud this place was these last two games. So looking forward to getting home and having our fans be just as loud. If not louder.”

In the history of best-of-five series in the current 2-2-1 format, 36 teams have dropped the first two games on the road. Only three of them have come back to win the series -- most recently the Yankees in the 2017 ALDS against Cleveland.

Of course, just last season, the Brewers won the first two games of their Division Series against the Cubs -- then lost Games 3 and 4 at Wrigley Field (before finishing off Chicago in Game 5 in Milwaukee).

“Excited to be home in front of the crowd,” said Game 3 starter Nick Pivetta. “Looking forward to the challenge ahead. I think you view this as a great opportunity.”

2. Start cashing in these opportunities
The endings of Games 1 and 2 in Milwaukee were especially cruel. They didn’t have to be.

In both games, the Padres created all sorts of traffic against some elite Milwaukee arms. They simply couldn’t create that major breakthrough. San Diego finished those two games 3-for-18 with runners in scoring position. They stranded 20 baserunners.

“They got the big hit when it counted,” Machado said. “We haven't been able to get that big hit. Obviously we've been scoring first. We just couldn't really get over the hump and get there.”

They’ve been so close, too. In Game 1, Jacob Misiorowski was on the ropes, trailing by two runs with the bases loaded in the second. In Game 2, France came through with a couple of clutch two-out RBI knocks. But the Padres couldn’t break down the door, stranding runners and running into outs.

In September, the Padres’ offense was the best in baseball. They routinely turned small opportunities into big innings. That’s harder to do in the playoffs against top-level pitching. But the Padres will need to.

3. A big start from Pivetta in Game 3
After missing five months with a flexor strain in his right elbow, Pivetta has been outstanding since his early September return. Counting Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Cubs, he’s posted a 1.63 ERA. He’s emerged as a legitimate No. 2 option in the rotation behind Michael King.

In that Wild Card Series, the Padres were content to lift Pivetta after 3 1/3 innings, with a fresh bullpen and a chance to clinch. They would absolutely do so again, if they need to. But in this instance … they’d rather not.

You could make an argument that Game 2 was lost during Game 1 -- when the Padres had to empty their bullpen. A day later, they didn’t have any fresh arms in that ‘pen (except Miller). And Miller was tasked with covering six outs. He only got five.

If Pivetta can give the Padres some length -- while continuing to be effective -- that’s the clearest path toward getting this series back to Milwaukee. Because there’s every chance the Padres would need a fresh bullpen -- at least relatively speaking -- for Game 4.

4. Back to Milwaukee, at all costs
Throw the traditional roles out the window. In all likelihood, the Brewers are lining up presumptive NL Cy Young Award winner in Misiorowski to get the ball in a potential Game 5. The Padres could match him with their ace, King, for that start. But they shouldn’t.

King has extensive experience pitching in relief in the playoffs. He was asked if he was planning for that Game 5 start after his outing on Sunday.

“I’ll probably be available, Games 3 and 4,” he said.

And he should be. The Padres are the ones with their backs against the wall. There should be no planning for Game 5 at all in their decision-making. If, and only if, they get there, then there will be ample time to worry about Game 5. And adequate rest. They’ll have the best bullpen in baseball to pull from with an off-day off beforehand.

The tricky part is getting there. By any means necessary.