An extra postseason round? Padres-D-backs series could decide final Wild Card spot

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SAN DIEGO -- It’s a 19-game sprint to the postseason.

But you know what? Let’s call it 16.

The longer the season goes with the Padres and Diamondbacks still neck and neck in the National League Wild Card race, the more likely it is that the final weekend of the regular season is going to decide the final playoff spot.

Remember, the Padres and Diamondbacks play three times at Petco Park Sept. 25-27. They’re currently tied in the loss column, with Arizona ahead by half a game. Their season-series tiebreaker still has not been settled. In fact, they’ve split their 10 games so far this season, meaning the winner of that series wins the tiebreaker as well.

Barring something strange, there’s almost certainly only one playoff spot available for these two teams. And they’ll play three games later this month with the winner potentially lined up to claim that spot.

You know what that is? It’s a playoff series. Even if it comes during the regular season.

I think we should reframe our thinking that way: There’s an extra round of the playoffs for the Padres this season, and it begins Sept. 25.

There are a couple caveats, of course.

• Either team could win a whole bunch of games between now and then and essentially earn themselves a bye through that playoff series, if their lead grows to four games or greater.

• A likelier scenario is that one team could make that series easier on itself by building a cushion of at least two games. In that scenario the team with a lead would only need to win one of those three games during the final weekend.

• And, of course, this assumes that none of the handful of contenders from the fringe of the Wild Card race makes a serious run down the stretch. The Marlins, Cardinals and Pirates are longshots, but they’re still alive.

If this comes down to a final-weekend showdown between the Padres and Diamondbacks, it’s time to start thinking of it the same way you’d think of a playoff series.

Meaning, the Padres need to start lining their pitching up for that series. (And maybe they already have? As things currently stand, Michael King could be lined up to start the finale of that series if it’s decisive -- or he could be bumped back to Game 1 of the postseason.)

Obviously, there are plenty of hypotheticals at play. The Padres don’t even know who they’ll have available on their pitching staff. Nick Pivetta returns Monday after missing nearly five months with a flexor strain in his right elbow. Joe Musgrove, though? TBD. He's still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Anything the Padres get from him down the stretch should be treated as a bonus.

Another injury-related question that might be just as important: What about Jeremiah Estrada and Jason Adam? Adam is ramping up. Estrada is a bit further away. But if they can get one or both of them back … I’m starting to think the San Diego bullpen is deep enough to ride bullpen games through some of the biggest games of the season. Can you cover 18 outs with some combination of Adam, Estrada, Yuki Matsui, Kyle Hart and Bradgley Rodriguez? If so, you’ve gotten to the point where you’re only asking Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller for the last nine.

These games are all massive. The Padres only have 16 of them left to put themselves in the best position possible for that final-weekend showdown.