Here are the 18 most important Padres to watch in spring

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

PEORIA, Ariz. -- I don’t really care what Manny Machado does in the Cactus League.

Hear me out … I certainly hope he’s healthy. And I’m very eager to watch him at the World Baseball Classic. But whatever he does in the Cactus League -- it’s just not relevant. Come Opening Day, he’s still Manny Machado.

Same goes for a bunch of the other veterans in camp. But not everyone. With that in mind, I set out to rank the most important Padres to watch this spring. Here are 18 that I came up with:

18. Jason Adam

All about health here. I wasn’t originally convinced Adam would be ready by Opening Day, following quad surgery. Then I saw him pitch Friday, facing five hitters and retiring all five, while striking out three. Adam still has to check boxes with his movements while fielding. But if he’s available Opening Day -- which is his stated goal -- this will be a fearsome bullpen on Day 1.

17. Michael King

With King, it’s about a little more than just health. I want to see him on the mound, looking like Michael King. Which wasn’t the case down the stretch last season, even after he returned from injury. The Padres re-signed King, envisioning the version they got in 2024 and in the first two months of ‘25. Let’s see that version.

16. Matt Waldron

“I’m out of options this year,” Waldron said. “So they’ve kind of just free-reigned it.” Translation: The Padres won’t ask Waldron to throw his signature knuckleball at any specific rate. They just want him getting outs, using any pitch necessary. (In his spring debut, that equated to 33% knuckleball usage.) The Padres would love to keep Waldron in the organization. But winning a roster spot feels like a tall task. He’s off to a nice start.

14-15. Bryan Hoeing and Kyle Hart

Hoeing was excellent down the stretch in 2024 after being traded to the Padres. Hart showed promise after his bullpen transition last year. The Padres don’t exactly need them -- their bullpen is strong enough already. But both could be useful in the middle innings, considering their ability to cover length.

12-13. Ty France and Bryce Johnson

Based on current roster construction, I’d guess the final bench spot comes down to these two. It’s obviously possible that an injury or some roster shuffling would open a place for both. But the Padres would be thrilled if both have strong springs, giving them a tricky decision.

11. Bradgley Rodriguez

The best-case-scenario Padres bullpen has Rodriguez in it. His stuff is electric, and he might work his way into leverage spots this season if he can reach his ceiling. But he’s still only 22 and relatively unproven.

7-8-9-10. Triston McKenzie, Marco Gonzales, Walker Buehler, Germán Márquez

There might be only one place available at the back of the Padres’ rotation, and they’ve certainly brought in some interesting candidates to compete for it. All four of these arms have had success in the past. All four are coming off a down year (or two, or three). The Padres don’t need to hit on all four. If they can get quality innings from one or two of them, it’ll be a major success.

6. Sung-Mun Song

The Padres are high on Song, whom they signed to a four-year deal in December. But there’s typically an acclimation period for players coming from the KBO. Song’s spring is off to a slower start, after he strained his oblique during the winter. But with a strong showing, Song can earn regular starts against righties, playing all over the field -- including, possibly, the outfield. And when he doesn’t start, his versatility should prove crucial off the bench.

5. Ethan Salas

2025 was a lost season for Salas, while he dealt with a stress reaction in his lower back. He’s not going to earn a roster spot this spring. But he’s going to get some much-needed reps -- and a chance to prove that he’s healthy and belongs back among the sport’s top prospects.

4. Randy Vásquez

Vásquez’s peripheral numbers weren’t good last season. But he just kept getting big outs when he needed them. And then -- in defiance of conventional wisdom -- Vásquez didn’t regress to the mean. The mean regressed to him. He began missing bats and limiting walks as the year progressed. His velocity ticked up, too. Vásquez is out of options this year. But if the Padres get the late-2025 version of Vásquez, he will win a rotation spot easily and should play a crucial role in the rotation.

3. Nick Castellanos

Castellanos made a strong first impression at first base. There’s playing time available for him if he can make that transition. Castellanos seems comfortable in his new clubhouse, and if he hits, his signing could be a massive bargain for a team that needs to slug more.

2. Luis Campusano

Is this, at long last, the year Campusano breaks through and sticks as a viable No. 2 option behind the plate? The Padres are clearly banking on it, considering they didn’t add another big league catching option this winter.

1. Joe Musgrove

The way I see it, there’s no player more important to the Padres’ success this season than Musgrove. He’s one of the clubhouse’s most vocal leaders and a San Diego mainstay. He’s also 33 and coming off Tommy John surgery. The variance in potential outcomes feels massive. If Musgrove is back to the dominant pre-surgery version of himself, the top of the Padres’ rotation looks formidable. (So far, so good: Musgrove looked sharp over two scoreless innings in a back-field sim game against Mariners hitters on Saturday.)