20 quick thoughts on the Padres' playoff push

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SAN DIEGO -- Here are 20 thoughts and insights on the Padres’ push for the postseason:

1. The Padres lead the D-backs by half a game entering today's mutual off-day, and everyone seems to think this Wild Card race is coming down to the final weekend. Manager Craig Stammen alluded to the possibility when the Padres left Arizona last month. Manny Machado admitted to scoreboard watching this week. “It probably will,” Machado said. “Hopefully not. But I wouldn’t be opposed.”

2. Then again, there’s serious incentive for the Padres to make sure it doesn’t come down to that three-game series against Arizona, Sept. 25-27. The first goal is making the playoffs. But there are bigger goals beyond that. If the Padres have to burn through pitchers to win games that weekend, those pitchers could be impacted for a theoretical Wild Card series the following week.

3. Math time! So, everybody thinks that season-ending series will be decisive. But how likely is that? For argument's sake, let’s call every game a tossup. The odds that either the Padres or Diamondbacks would be four games ahead of the other by that weekend? About 17%. Leaving an 83% chance that that series proves decisive.

4. Just as relevant: The odds that the two teams are within one game of each other at the start of that series? About 44%. That would turn that series into a de facto playoff series, where two wins out of three gets you in. Except…

5. I'm just saying … the Padres and Diamondbacks have significantly easier schedules down the stretch than the Cubs and Phillies. Maybe, just maybe, this isn't an either/or proposition.

6. Jason Adam is facing hitters in Arizona today, as he works his way back from a strained subscapularis muscle in his right shoulder. The next step for Adam could be a rehab outing. Probably another after that. But does he need to be ready for everyday innings to return to the Padres? Their bullpen is deep enough, and they’ve got an extra arm available with expanded September rosters.

7. Jeremiah Estrada is further away. As in, he’s not throwing yet. A regular season return seems unlikely.

8. So where does that leave the Padres’ bullpen? Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon are the relief aces at the back end. If you get Adam back and can pair him with Bradgley Rodriguez, those are serious high-leverage setup weapons. Yuki Matsui and Kyle Hart can get lefties (and cover multiple innings if needed). And if you need a long man in a game you’re not throwing away, Randy Vásquez is your guy. That’s a really well-balanced unit. There’s a reason -- beyond just Miller and Morejon -- that it’s the best bullpen in baseball.

9. Gavin Sheets has a plantar plate tear in his left foot. He played through it for much of the summer. But he aggravated it while running the bases in Tampa Bay. Sheets has been in a walking boot since. It's possible (maybe even likely) that the injury will require surgery in the offseason. But the Padres have confidence that, with some rest, it will heal enough for Sheets to return and contribute down the stretch and into the postseason. That will almost certainly be in a DH/pinch-hit role, however. Sheets is no longer an option for left field.

10. I wouldn’t count on Ramón Laureano as an option either. Laureano has been out since undergoing hip surgery in June. He’s resumed baseball activity, including swinging off a tee and playing catch. But he hasn’t resumed running and is “not close to playing,” per Stammen.

11. So where does that leave the Padres in left field? They’re getting meaningful contributions from Dustin Harris. Samad Taylor is the guy against left-handed pitching. Austin Hays could play his way into at-bats. Jase Bowen remains the defensive replacement. But there’s no obvious solution, other than, as Stammen put it, “Playing the hot hand and the platoon advantage.”

12. Miguel Andujar began a rehab stint Tuesday. I don't think he's an option for regular reps in left. But that's still a useful bat, if they can get him back in the DH/PH mix.

13. Remember, the Padres wanted a corner-outfield bat at the Trade Deadline, but decided to allocate their resources to starting pitching instead. I still think that was the right strategy. This rotation needed to stabilize. And even if Robbie Ray and Casey Mize have endured some struggles ... it sort of has.

14. I was extremely impressed by Mize on Tuesday night. By far the best he’s looked as a Padre. He got a bunch of swings and misses with his splitter. His command was on point. Ignore the final line. That version of Mize could start a playoff game. (And in a playoff game, there’s no way he goes back out for that fateful sixth inning).

15. This wasn't Craig Stammen's best homestand -- even before Wednesday's awkward forced removal of Walker Buehler. (Which, by the way, was the right move, strategically, even if the process to get there was convoluted.) Stammen made a couple other decisions that left me scratching my head. He didn’t pinch-hit for Hays with the winning run on third base on Friday against the Yankees. Even though Hays was facing a righty, and there were multiple lefty bats available on the bench. Then, on Tuesday, Stammen waited to use Vásquez to relieve Mize until there were two on and two out -- even though Vásquez has minimal experience entering games in such situations. Both decisions backfired. And then … they didn’t. The Padres won both games.

16. What I appreciate about Stammen is that he owns -- and seems to learn from -- these kinds of mistakes. Not very often you hear a manager say things like, “If I had to do it all over again, I probably would’ve done it a little bit differently.” But that’s what Stammen said on Tuesday. Or, Wednesday: "We've got a great team; they've picked me up all year."

17. Thing is, at this time of year, you can’t afford too many more of those moments. For 5 1/2 months, I think the manager’s job description is basically: keep the vibes up, keep the bullpen fresh, keep the clubhouse together through the ups and downs. Stammen has done a great job of all that. (Not to mention the way he navigated a threadbare rotation all summer.) But in a pennant race -- and in the postseason, if you get there -- the in-game tactics start to matter a whole lot more. Let’s see how Stammen handles that challenge.

18. For instance, there's clearly a level of comfort with Machado-France-Merrill hitting 3-4-5. But it's probably time to move them up to 2-3-4 (in some order) behind Tatis. The Padres need their four best hitters hitting one through four.

19. Talk about a potentially season-defining road trip, one way or the other. The Padres face San Francisco and Colorado, currently the two worst teams in the National League. But they're just 32-39 away from Petco Park this season (and they've had some strange things happen to them at Coors Field over the years).

20. I wasn't buying Machado’s hair as the difference-maker he said it would be. But I’m willing to be proven otherwise. I mean ... the Padres have won three straight since he went platinum blond.