Undrafted Padres prospect Karpathios making noise in Fall League
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GOODYEAR, Ariz. – Braedon Karpathios’ path to the Arizona Fall League has been one of the most unique in this year’s class, but it’s led him to the same destination as some of the game’s top prospects. Soon, it could lead him to San Diego.
Hailing from Pennsylvania’s Lancaster County, the Padres’ No. 30 prospect, who played both ways, fell out of a commitment to Coastal Carolina due to grades concerns and underwent Tommy John surgery as a Lampeter-Strasburg High School prepster. He got a few sniffs as a potential Draft pick in 2021, enough for his family to throw a small party in case the call ever came. One of those inquiries was the Padres via area scout Danny Sader, the same evaluator who brought Jackson Merrill into the organization the same year.
After going unselected, the left-handed talent headed to junior college at Harford Community College in Maryland, and Sader stayed on him with a preference for him as an outfielder. Even though Karpathios was Draft-eligible again, there was no party in 2022, but maybe there should have been. San Diego and Sader offered to sign him for $125,000 as a nondrafted free agent. He accepted the offer before the 20-round process was complete.
“If an opportunity was knocking at the door, I wouldn’t be dumb enough to not go for it,” he said. “I didn't really care if I signed as a free agent or if I got drafted. I just wanted an opportunity and thankfully enough, Danny signed me and now we’re here.”
It still took some explaining to the rest of the family.
“I’m like, ‘Stop playing,’” said his father, Jim Karpathios. “‘You got three more rounds to go. Just be positive.’ He's like, ‘Dad, I signed.’ I hung up the phone on him.”
A San Diego official later called Jim to confirm his son wasn’t joking; the offer – the accepted offer – was real.
“I'm like, I think it's great, but I'm sorry, I have to hang up,” said the elder Karpathios. “I have to call my son back because I just hung up on him. … It’s been a great ride.”
Most players in the Draft process hail from high schools or four-year colleges, but the many who go to junior college do so hoping to hear their names at least called. If they don’t sign, they head to bigger programs, aiming to push the envelope.
Karpathios just sought a pro chance, knowing becoming a full-time hitting could be a lengthy process. He split his first full season between the Arizona Complex League and Single-A Lake Elsinore, only to return to the California League for his age-21 campaign in 2024.
This most recent season, for all intents and purposes, has been his breakout.
Karpathios slashed .254/.370/.410 in 103 games with High-A Fort Wayne. His 125 wRC+ ranked 10th-best in the Midwest League, and his 15 percent walk rate was 12th-best among all High-A qualifiers. His 15 homers, including three from a late-season promotion to Double-A San Antonio, nearly doubled his previous career high of eight.
“I came from a junior college, and we didn't see, you know, the greatest pitching ever,” he said. “So it just took me time to get adjusted to it.”
With that has also come increased, but selective, aggression. Karpathios’ overall swing rate went from 39 percent in 2024 (per Synergy) to 42 this summer, while his in-zone whiff rate dropped from 26 percent to 23.
“He was always a two-strike hitter,” said Jim Karpathios. “For whatever reason, I couldn't get him to swing the bat unless he had two strikes on him. That's just how he was. So it kind of helps him, because he's used to swinging with two strikes on him.
“But I think this year, he started studying the game more and getting a better approach, attacking the first pitch when he sees it. When he doesn't do well, it's because he's not swinging his bat and waiting for two strikes. When he's in an attack mode, he’s a really good hitter.”
Still in possession of his strong arm that makes him a nice fit in right field, Karpathios jumped onto the Padres’ Top 30 list this summer, and sensing that he could build on his momentum, San Diego told him with about a month to go in the season that he’d join Peoria in the Fall League.
The main focus these days is in directionality. Karpathios pulled only 21.2 percent of his batted balls in his 21-game Double-A stint; by contrast, 38.5 percent of those were sent the other way. While it’s nice to have an all-fields approach, being that anemic to pulling the ball in the air can dull a hitter’s overall power output.
As of Saturday in the AFL, eight of Karpathios’ 12 batted balls have exceeded 95 mph exit velocities. But only three of those eight have been pulled to the right side, including a pair of groundouts to second. His latest extra-base hit – a 97.5 mph double on Saturday – was sliced down the third-base line.
“I’m working every day in the cage, whether that's with a hard foam ball machine or just setting the [pitching] machine up or just working inside,” Karpathios said. “Just trying to have something click. It'll click eventually, and hopefully it takes off from there.”
Because Karpathios turned 19 two weeks after the June 5 cutoff in his signing year, he still has one year remaining until he reaches Rule 5 eligibility. Without the need to win a 40-man spot, he can focus on honing that approach that’s got him this far and could get him farther still than is expected for any nondrafted free agent.
“He was pretty set on what he was going to do with junior college,” Jim Karpathios said. “I thought about it and thought that probably is a better avenue for you. He was like, ‘Trust me. Let me do this.’ And he did it.”