Skenes seeks return to Cy Young form against one of MLB's hottest lineups

Paul Skenes has taken a step back in 2026. The buzz surrounding his decline has never been more prevalent.

The fastball velocity is down (average 96.8 mph, down from 98.2 mph in 2025), the walk rate is up (7.2%, up from 5.7% in '25) -- as is the ERA (a career-high 3.95). Whether it’s fatigue, an adjustment the league has made against him, overall lack of feel and command of his stuff, or a combination of all of those things, Skenes and the Pirates know he should be better.

The only way out of this funk, the way Skenes sees it, is through.

“Grinding is a relative thing,” he said after his last start against the Tigers. “I would say that in ‘24 and ‘25, I grinded at times too,” Skenes said. “So I think it's how you view it more than anything. I've been learning a lot, and I'll continue to learn a lot. Just got to keep going.”

Skenes gets another shot at returning to his Cy Young form on Tuesday night in San Diego at 9:40 p.m. ET, but he’ll have to go through one of the sport’s hottest lineups to do so.

The Padres, who have won 21 of their last 28 games dating back to July 24 and whom the Pirates have fallen significantly behind in the National League Wild Card race, have been surging at the plate throughout the second half. They boast an MLB-best 125 wRC+ (league average is 100) and are tied with the Cubs for tops in the NL in OPS (.801) in that span.

Taming competitive lineups and teams is nothing new for Skenes. He is 13-6 with a 2.64 ERA in his career against teams with records above .500. It goes without saying that those types of things don’t faze him -- not many things do, in general.

The difference in performance this season has been jarring, though. And it has hit a new low in the second half. Skenes has posted a 5.28 ERA over his last six starts. He’s surrendered four walks in three of those outings. He only has one quality start in that stretch.

Over his previous two starts, Skenes has been limited to under 85 pitches, which is largely because Pirates manager Don Kelly said they weren’t going to push Skenes over that threshold against the Tigers last time out after giving him seven days rest in between the start before that, when he threw just 65 pitches against the Marlins.

Skenes will be coming off of regular five-day rest when he starts on Tuesday, looking to get himself and his season back on the rails.