Predicting the season ahead as Phils eye 5th straight playoff run

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CLEARWATER, Fla. -- It has been 165 days since the Phillies’ 2025 season ended in the 11th inning at Dodger Stadium.

In three days, however, they start anew.

Opening Day is Thursday. The Phillies will play the Rangers at Citizens Bank Park. They return much of the roster that made the postseason in each of the past four years, but they also have 11 players on the Opening Day roster that were elsewhere a year ago. Those new faces include top prospects Andrew Painter and Justin Crawford, outfielders Adolis García and Otto Kemp, utility player Dylan Moore and six relievers.

FanGraphs projects the Phillies to win 87 games, which seems low considering they won 90 or more games each of the past three seasons. But only four teams are projected to win more than the Phils this year: the Dodgers (96 wins), the Mets (88), the Braves (88) and the Mariners (88).

What needs to go right? The Phillies are built to win in October, whether you think they’re “running it back” or not. If everybody is healthy, they should get there. They’re too talented. It all starts with starting pitching. If Zack Wheeler returns to Cy Young-caliber form, whenever he rejoins the rotation, the team’s strength becomes even stronger. Painter and Aaron Nola have shown good things this spring. The Phillies feel so good about Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo that they signed both of them to new contracts this month, too.

Great unknown: Crawford has looked big league ready. He tripled on Friday against Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. It was his fourth extra-base hit of the spring. He has made nice plays in center field, too. Crawford doesn’t need to be a savior for the Phillies. Not even close. He just needs to hit enough in the nine hole and catch the baseball. If he exceeds those modest expectations, Philadelphia will be thrilled.

Team MVP will be ... A highly-motivated Bryce Harper is going to have one of the best years of his career. After the World Baseball Classic, he spoke about chasing less and walking more. He mentioned 140-150 walks as a goal. (Lenny Dykstra walked a franchise-record 129 times in 1993.) “If I can hone in my strike zone and understand I'm really good when I walk,” Harper said, “so if I can walk 140-150 times this year, then I think I'll be right where I want to be.”

Team Cy Young will be ... A few candidates, but we’re going with Sánchez, who finished second in 2025 NL Cy Young Award voting. Sánchez hasn’t added a new pitch this spring, but he has talked about being in the best condition and mindset possible to be the best pitcher in the long term. He is oozing confidence, and there’s no reason to think he can’t replicate or improve upon his 2025 season.

Bold Prediction: Bryson Stott makes his first NL All-Star team and finishes top five for the NL batting title.