5 keys to the Phillies' possible postseason run
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This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
PHILADELPHIA – The Phillies chatted on Wednesday about their potential postgame plans, if they beat the Brewers a few hours later at Citizens Bank Park.
If they won, they only needed the Diamondbacks or the Padres to lose to clinch an NL Wild Card spot and their fifth consecutive trip to the postseason. Would they wait at the ballpark to see if Arizona lost in Colorado and pop champagne to celebrate? And if Arizona won, would they wait to see if San Diego lost in Los Angeles in a late-night game to celebrate?
It could have made for an incredibly long night, but there are only so many of these moments in a player’s career.
“Honestly, you play a long season,” Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly said. “It’s no guarantee of getting in. If we’re fortunate enough to get in, we should celebrate because we’ve gotten ourselves to it, giving ourselves an opportunity. You just can’t take for granted 160-something games and fight for that and you don’t celebrate. To me, it doesn’t make sense.”
The Phillies lost to Milwaukee, 4-1, meaning they left the ballpark on Wednesday just as normal. But, they can still clinch a Wild Card on Thursday.
Whatever happens, here are a few things to watch in the Phillies’ final four regular-season games. They could impact how the Phillies look and play in the postseason:
Luzardo played catch for a fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, which is a good sign in his recovery from inflammation in his left shoulder. He has not pitched since Sept. 7, when he threw a two-hit shutout after winning National League Pitcher of the Month in August. But the fact that he keeps throwing shows he is recovering well, and he is moving in the right direction.
The Phillies haven’t announced Luzardo’s next step, but he could throw off a mound as early as Thursday. Luzardo could also throw a simulated game before the end of the weekend.
The Phillies said they haven’t ruled out Luzardo starting or relieving in next week’s NL Wild Card Series. Luzardo, even for just an inning, is better than nothing.
Painter is scheduled to start on Thursday night against Milwaukee. The Phillies bumped their bullpen game (Luzardo’s spot) from Thursday to Saturday against Tampa Bay to keep Painter on normal rest.
The Phillies also moved Cristopher Sánchez’s start from Saturday to Friday, lining him up to start Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series.
Zack Wheeler is expected to start Game 1.
But Mattingly said if the opportunity presented itself, he would like to see Painter pitch out of the bullpen before the postseason. Painter could pitch out of the ’pen this weekend.
Getting him comfortable coming out of the bullpen and pitching out of the stretch wouldn’t hurt, although they probably would prefer to start with a clean inning.
Consider:
• Painter’s numbers with nobody on base (i.e. from the windup) since he rejoined the rotation on July 31: 1.00 WHIP, .155/.259/.248 (.507 opponents' OPS), 24.5 K%, 10.9 BB%.
• Painter’s numbers with runners on (i.e. from the stretch): 1.37 WHIP, .303/.333/.487 (.820 opponents' OPS), 22.0 K%, 4.9 BB%.
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If you haven’t heard, the Phillies’ bullpen has been a bit of a mess in recent weeks. But McFarlane could play a key role in its postseason resurrection. The rookie right-hander entered Wednesday at 4-1 with a 2.12 ERA in 17 appearances. He pitched 1 2/3 scoreless innings in Tuesday night’s win over the Brewers.
McFarlane hasn’t been fazed by the moment so far, but a strong finish would be nice to see.
4. Trea Turner
It won’t be a season for Turner to remember, unless he plays well in the postseason. He enters Thursday batting .238 with a .703 OPS this month, which is his third-best month this season based on OPS (April: .755, July: .897).
He has been a bit better recently, batting .270 with a .697 OPS in his previous 10 games. If Turner can chase less and get on base more, it would make a huge difference in the playoffs.
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"Yeah, I think more and more you see how they're pitching him, and it's basically not throwing him strikes," Mattingly said. "And so, the more he walks, the more they're forced in the strike zone. And when he's on base, obviously, it creates a danger there with him running. So, yeah, we need him to get on base. When he's on base, we're better."
Before he strained his right groin last Thursday in New York, Bowlan had become Mattingly’s most trusted late-inning right-hander, besides closer Jhoan Duran. He threw off the mound on Wednesday, so there’s a chance he could be back before the weekend. If not, then maybe he’ll be ready for the postseason.
The Phillies only used six pitchers in the 2022 NL Wild Card Series. They used only seven in the 2023 Wild Card Series. But both of those series lasted only two games. If next week’s series goes three, the Phillies will need as many quality arms as possible. Bowlan could help.