Inbox: Which 2026 Fall League squad is most intriguing?
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Greetings from the desert!
I'm out in Arizona with the start of another exciting Arizona Fall League campaign coming with three games here on Saturday. We’ll have plenty of coverage, from Opening Day to the Championship Game on November 14, so come back early and often.
Since I'm preparing to dive headfirst into the AFL, I decided to answer a pair of Fall League-related questions to kick things off for this week's MLB Pipeline Inbox.
Some last-minute additions to the AFL have made the Surprise Saguaros the clear team to watch, at least in the box.
A trio of Top 100 guys -- Rangers infielder Sebastian Walcott (TEX No. 1/MLB No. 8), Phillies shortstop Aidan Miller (PHI No. 2/MLB No. 59) and Royals outfielder Angeibel Gomez (KC No. 2/MLB No. 76) -- were all announced on Monday -- and all will be playing for the Saguaros this fall. Both Walcott and Miller were supposed to spend the autumn in this league a year ago, but Miller’s back was already starting to bother him, so he got shut down before he got here; Walcott played in just one game because of what was first called arm fatigue, but ended up being a torn elbow ligament that led to internal brace surgery.
Gomez's addition might be the biggest surprise as a member of the 2026 international signing class. He had a terrific debut in the Dominican Summer League (1.120 OPS), but it's an unprecedented move to send someone from the DSL to the AFL before he's played a game in the United States. He'll be 17 for all of the Fall League season and is the second-youngest player to ever play in the league.
After Surprise, I'd probably list Glendale as my second choice. The Desert Dogs lead the way with four Top 100 guys, and it'll be fun seeing Eduardo Quintero (LAD No. 2/MLB No. 15) and Charles Davalan (LAD No. 6/MLB No. 79) from the Dodgers, Caleb Bonemer (CWS No. 2/MLB No. 27) from the White Sox and Tate Southisene (ATL No. 3/MLB No. 58) from the Braves all on the field.
We started ranking prospects in 2004, going from a Top 50 to a Top 100 in 2012, so we can start there to see if history can teach us anything. That's a total of 21 Fall League seasons (there was no AFL in 2020 because of the pandemic) and the scorecard looks like this:
MVPs not on the Top 100: 13
MVPs on the Top 100: 8
It should be noted that a trio of players parlayed their MVP campaigns into a Top 100 spot the following year: Braves right-hander Tommy Hanson (MVP in 2008, Top 100 in 2009), Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado (MVP in 2011, Top 100 in 2012) and Tigers' catcher/first baseman Josue Briceño (MVP in 2024, Top 100 in 2025). And we should give at least a partial special nod to Heston Kjerstad, who had been on the Top 100 before his AFL stint, fell off because of health issues, then jumped back on in 2023 following his MVP season the prior fall.
For whatever it's worth, Jim Callis and I both picked Top 100 guys to win MVP honors this year, with Jim picking Caleb Bonemer and me predicting Ike Irish to take home the hardware. But the last two decades show us that a non-Top 100 guy has a better chance to make more of a name for himself by winning the award.
Sure, consider it done.
OK, it's not as simple as that.
Tait still has considerable upside and comes in at No. 6 on the current Twins' Top 30. The key prospect acquired in the Jhoan Duran Trade Deadline deal in July 2025, he played nearly all of his first full season in his new organization at age 19 in High-A Cedar Rapids, more than three years younger than the average hitter in the Midwest League. He finished sixth in the league with 22 homers.
That's the good news. Tait has always been a very aggressive hitter, and in the early stages of his career, his knack for contact was a blessing and a curse. He would chase too much, but kept his strikeouts low and there was hope he would refine that as he matured and moved up the ladder. He regressed in this area in 2026, still chasing at a high rate (35 percent) but seeing his strikeout rate tick up and his walk rate go down. Neither of those moved dramatically, but they didn’t move in the right direction and his 119/35 K/BB ratio led to him hitting .221 with just a .699 OPS and 74 wRC+. Add in concerns about his receiving, and there were plenty of reasons to drop him off.
But there are also plenty of reasons for optimism. The power, especially to his pull side, is very real. And he’ll be only 20 in 2027, so there's time for him to figure things out at the plate and hit his way back onto the Top 100 in the future.
If this reads like someone trying to get some information for a keeper or dynasty league, you’re right. (A follow-up about other players specifically said as much.) Let's quickly touch on all the players:
* There are few guarantees in life, but Made making it to the big leagues next year is as close to a prospect slam dunk you can get. When you look at his very solid age-19 season in Double-A and the Brewers' willingness to push their young phenoms to the big leagues, I'm pretty confident he will hit Milwaukee in 2027. I'd probably make sure he gets a lot of reps at third this offseason, because he's already an upgrade over the Joey Ortiz/David Hamilton tandem at the hot corner.
* I'd have to give Sloan the slight edge, only because he spent all season in Double-A last year. They're roughly the same age, but Sloan has over 100 more pro innings compared to Hernandez's résumé. Had Hernandez not gotten hurt this past year, he would have finished the season in Double-A. That said, it wouldn’t shock me if he pitches so well at that level in 2027 that he quickly moves up and gets a shot in Pittsburgh at some point. And I'll take Hernandez's ceiling if I had to pick one long-term, though I think both have the potential to be elite-level big league starters for a long time.