Inbox: If 1st-round Draft picks were tradable who could they fetch?
I'm not sure which is greater, my College World Series fever or my Draft fever. And I couldn't be more excited about the Guardians promoting Daniel Espino to the big leagues, so I have Espino fever too. Let's try to abate at least one of those things by answering some Draft questions!
Jesse is our international prospect maven and wears a variety of other hats as well for MLB Pipeline. We liked this question so much that we fielded it on the latest edition of the Pipeline Podcast, and I wanted to expand on it here.
Our colleague Jonathan Mayo immediately wondered if a contender would sacrifice its first-round pick for the likely biggest prize on the trade market, Tarik Skubal. Jonathan proposed the Padres dealing the No. 21 choice to get the two-time American League Cy Young Award winner, and also speculated that the Cubs would surrender the No. 23 selection to do the same. I wondered if the Braves, who have the best record in baseball, might go all in with the No. 9 pick, and Jesse later said that thought inspired his question.
I took a different tack based on the industry perception that the Giants would do whatever it takes to get UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, the top-rated prospect on our Draft Top 200. They own the No. 4 selection but don't have a realistic hope of floating him past three teams.
In Jesse's world with tradeable first-rounders, what would San Francisco have to add to the No. 4 choice to persuade the White Sox to part with No. 1? I don't think the Giants would want to part with their three best prospects, shortstops Josuar Gonzalez, Luis Hernández and Jhonny Level. But all that shortstop depth and the impending arrival of Cholowsky would make it easier to give up another shortstop, Gavin Kilen, who was the 13th overall pick in 2025.
I suspect San Francisco might have to sweeten the pot a little more beyond the No. 4 selection and Kilen. The White Sox need pitching and could ask for Landen Roupp. If that didn't work, maybe Triple-A left-hander Carson Whisenhunt and a younger arm such as Keyner Martinez and Argenis Cayama.
One thing is certain. These kinds of trades would create a lot more interest in the Draft.
So we're all on the same page, this is the past three Drafts as well as this one if we're including both Paul Skenes and Roch Cholowsky. I'll line up the players based solely on their prospect status at the time (based on our rankings and how they were drafted and paid) and not at all on anything that has happened since they turned pro. And I'm just ranking the top 25 in order rather than taking teams' drafting philosophies into consideration, though I did lean college over high school and hitter over pitcher to settle close calls.
Here we go, using this year's Draft order for the first round:
1. White Sox: Paul Skenes, RHP (2023)
2. Rays: Dylan Crews, OF (2023)
3. Twins: Travis Bazzana, 2B (2024)
4. Giants: Charlie Condon, OF/3B (2024)
5. Pirates: Wyatt Langford, OF (2023)
6. Royals: Roch Cholowsky, SS (2026)
7. Orioles: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP (2024)
8. Athletics: Grady Emerson, SS (2026)
9. Braves: J.J. Wetherholt, SS/2B (2024)
10. Rockies: Walker Jenkins, OF (2023)
11. Nationals: Max Clark, OF (2023)
12. Angels: Vahn Lackey, C (2026)
13. Cardinals: Ethan Holliday, SS (2025)
14. Marlins: Chase Burns, RHP (2024)
15. Diamondbacks: Hagen Smith, LHP (2024)
16. Rangers: Nick Kurtz, 1B (2024)
17. Astros: Kade Anderson, LHP (2025)
18. Reds: Eli Willits, SS (2025)
19. Guardians: Seth Hernandez, RHP (2025)
20. Red Sox: Rhett Lowder, RHP (2023)
21. Padres: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF (2024)
22. Tigers: Braden Montgomery, OF (2024)
23. Cubs: Kyle Teel, C (2023)
24. Mariners: Chase Dollander, RHP (2023)
25. Brewers: Bryce Rainer, SS (2024)
That breaks down as eight players from 2023, 10 from 2024, four from 2025 and three from this year, which feels right. The next-best prospects from each of those four Drafts? Jacob Wilson (2023), Christian Moore (2024), Liam Doyle (2025) and Jacob Lombard (2026).
I'll rank the three most interesting teams in the Draft:
1. White Sox: They've surged back into contention much quicker than expected, making them the rare team to own the No. 1 overall choice and a winning record at the same time. It's unclear if they'll take Cholowsky, Texas high school shortstop Grady Emerson or Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey at the top. They covet Illinois prep infielder Landon Thome, the son of Hall of Fame slugger and White Sox special assistant Jim Thome, and may be able to get him with their second selection at No. 41. With a $17,592,100 bonus pool, they're poised to land a lot of talent.
2. Orioles: For most clubs, the top tier of talent consists of Cholowsky, Emerson and Lackey, followed by a second tier of Florida high school shortstop Jacob Lombard, UC Santa Barbara right-hander Jackson Flora and Mississippi prep outfielder Eric Booth. There's a good chance they'll all go in the first six picks, but No. 7 with the Orioles is wide open. Do they swing for the fences like they have in the past and take a player with huge upside but also bat concerns in Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron? Do they take a safer pick such as Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress? Or do they pull a true surprise? Given their history, it won't be a pitcher.
3. Pirates: The Pirates have the largest bonus pool ($19,130,700) and four of the top 51 choices with Nos. 5, 34, 44 and 51. After hitting big on its last three top-10-overall selections in Skenes, Griffin and Hernandez, they could land the consensus best pitcher in this Draft with Flora. They're poised to do plenty of damage afterward as well, and since they're hanging around in the National League Wild Card race, they could consider trading No. 34 to bolster their big league roster.
Quick aside: How can you not love Jcmo34Mo's avatar?
Lackey is more athletic than most catchers and could handle all four infield and outfield corners. He looked fine at third base in 14 errorless games the last two seasons at Georgia Tech.
Lackey slashed .397/.519/.772 with 20 homers and 15 steals in 61 games this spring, and an argument could be made that a team could get more out of his bat and he could retain more of his athleticism if he played a different position than catcher. But he's also a solid defender with a strong arm behind the plate, which adds to his value.
Even with Lackey's offensive production, I don't think the White Sox would consider him with the No. 1 overall choice if he weren't a catcher. He'd still go in the first 5-10 picks but not at the very top.