Which system rose the most? Your prospects rerank questions answered
We had a feeling people might have a lot of questions and opinions following our full in-season rerank of the Top 100, all 30 team Top 30s and a new farm system rankings. Boy, were we right.
We started on this week’s MLB Pipeline Podcast by answering a question about the highest ranked guy in each of our respective Top 100 lists who didn’t make the other two (Jim Callis, Sam Dykstra and I begin a Top 100 process by combining our individual lists – 125 deep, actually – and then sending it out for feedback). Go give that a listen for the answer.
But people had a lot more to say, unsurprisingly, about all of the new rankings. So I tried to extend this week’s Inbox a bit to get to a few more queries than usual.
On the rise side of the ledger, I’d probably go with the Giants, who jumped up to No. 5 from No. 19 in the preseason. I hate to give Mr. Callis props publicly, but he did say at the start of the year that their system had a chance to take a nice leap forward, and that was largely because of the impressive young hitters (Josuar Gonzalez, Luis Hernández and Jhonny Level) who are all in the Top 100. Then they added three high-end arms in the Draft and traded for even more, giving them a lot more balance up and down the ladder
In terms of falling, I’ll point to the Mets, who dropped from No. 7 to 18. A lot of that is because Nolan McLean, Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing graduated. Getting Jefferson Rojas at the Deadline helped, along with a few others now in their Top 30, but the lack of high-end elite talent when combined with poor seasons from guys like Jonah Tong and Ryan Clifford and injuries to others, led to the slip in the rankings.
As Jim likes to say, the farm system rankings always make one team (and fans) happy, 29 ... not so much. So outside of the very top (and maybe the very bottom), they all represent challenges. But if I’m going to point to just a couple, I’ll go to the back of the top 10: the Mariners and Marlins. Both teams have six Top 100 guys, tied for the most, and a big reason why they’re ranked where they are. Seattle’s list thins out in the back half of it, so it becomes a struggle of how to weigh top-end talent vs. depth. As for Miami, it’s a system moving up for good reason, but two of the Top 100 pitchers, Thomas White and Robby Snelling, are hurt, and so is high-end arm Kevin Defrank. Some of the Marlins’ hitters have been performing better, but that’s a relatively new development.
Yes, the Pirates did move down 10 spots, from 3 to 13, but they are still in the top half of the rankings. The main reason for the slide on the list is graduations. When the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball (Konnor Griffin) and one of the best pitching prospects in the game (Bubba Chandler) both graduate from prospect status, that’s going to cause a dent. Seth Hernandez still gives them a top 10 talent, but it tails off a bit more precipitously than it has in the past. It’s still a pretty deep list, and that’s why they didn’t fall beyond the top 15.
I’m answering this mostly because DbacksFactoids has been tweeting us about this incessantly for a while now. I’m going to hope that the intent was to say Patrick Forbes should be higher on the D-backs list, rather than somehow claiming he belonged in the Top 100 with Tyler Bremner and Gage Wood. The really simple answer is that he’s barely pitched, now up to 20 2/3 IP with High-A Hillsboro. A right flexor strain, then more elbow discomfort, kept him off the competitive mound until the end of May and he’s been throwing in relatively shorter stints as he ramps back up. Bremner and Wood haven’t been perfect – Bremner missed a chunk of time, too, with illness – but both he and Wood are in Double-A now. And, the explanation I often remind people of: Our rankings are not based on what a player is doing at this moment, though that obviously plays a part, but are about what the industry thinks that player will be in the big leagues in the future. The snapshot right now has Forbes trailing the other two 2025 college pitchers you mention.
I’d like to point out that Bonemer started the season at No. 61 and is now at No. 30, so the net for the year is still more than +30. But I understand what you’re getting at: We had done some "market corrections" to the Top 100 over the course of the season, and the White Sox young infielder had risen to No. 16 prior to this rerank. Yes, his strikeout rate in Double-A is presently a bit lower (24.0 percent vs. 29.1 pct in High-A), though his OPS is actually now a bit lower (.918 vs. 937), but I’ll chalk that up to statistical fluctuation. I’d like to see him sustain that for longer to prove that his Winston-Salem numbers were the exception, not the rule. But he’s definitely going to end up at a corner, which puts pressure on him to keep putting up those power/run-producer numbers. Three debuting draftees along with a couple of players we moved up (rather than moving him down) also play a role here. We did initially have him a bit higher, but got considerable feedback from the scouting industry to nudge him a bit lower because of concerns about his hit tool and his ability on the dirt.
He is indeed the highest-ranked prospect to not make the Top 100. But we will always re-evaluate players after they are drafted and signed. And the fact of the matter is that Lebron didn’t come off the board until No. 18 and only got a slightly over-slot bonus (about equivalent to pick No. 16). His raw tools put him in the conversation, but I think everyone would like to see what it looks like for a prolonged period of time in pro ball after he struggled so much in the SEC this past spring. And his hot start over seven games isn’t going to get him closer to being added; that just won’t be a big enough sample size to move the needle that much.