Inbox: Which teams had the best Draft, fastest picks to the bigs and more

Well that was a crazy weekend, huh? Having the MLB Draft and the All-Star Futures Game at the same time is, well, a lot, but we have you covered. And not surprisingly, all of that prospect-related action left you with a ton of questions.

So let’s not waste any more time.

Thanks to our fearless MLB Pipeline leader, Jason Ratliff, we have you covered, and we’ll even go beyond the top three picks as you asked.

The formula to figure this out was calculated by taking the amount of picks (in this case three), the amount of unranked players taken with those picks and the total number of prospect points in those picks (250 points for No. 1 prospect Grady Emerson, 249 for Roch Cholowsky, etc.). An average of prospect points per pick is taken and then the difference (Pipeline value vs. slot, as Blah bla put it) is the cumulative overall pick numbers minus cumulative draft rankings, so the higher the number, the better. Let’s start with the question and look at the top three picks:

1. Rangers (73)
2. Blue Jays (64)
3. Angels (36)
4. Reds (34)
5. Mets (27)

In Jim Callis’ fine work on top Draft hauls, the Angels were the only team in this group that got mentioned. But he was looking at the top 10 rounds, so we should too. Using the same formula, here’s what we have:

1. Guardians (169)
2. Angels (-34)
3. Dodgers (-54)
4. Phillies (-60)
5. A’s (-88)

The Guardians and Angels made Jim’s list. This obviously isn’t the only measuring stick used to determine who had a good Draft, so to answer the question posed directly: No, it’s not really consistent with who had the top Drafts.

This is an oft-answered question following each Draft, and we did just that on this week’s info-packed MLB Pipeline Podcast. All four of us – me, Jim Callis, Jason Ratliff and Sam Dykstra – gave options. We did mention Roch Cholowsky as an obvious choice, but we all gave different options:

Me: Cole Carlon, LHP. I predict a strong first full season and the Blue Jays calling him up to let his 70-grade slider play out of the bullpen in a playoff race.

Jim: Jackson Flora, RHP. The No. 4 overall pick, Flora has the combination of pure stuff and feel for pitching that should help him rocket through the Giants’ system.

Jason: Cal Randall, RHP. The Cardinals’ fifth-rounder is a reliever-only with one of the best fastballs in the class.

Sam: Drew Burress, OF. Someone had to take an outfielder and Burress is the kind of advanced hitter who shouldn't take long to get to the big leagues, especially with the A’s.

We’ll be figuring this out in August when we do our full-on re-rank that incorporates all the Draft picks. As you allude to, there are a lot of moving parts and how top prospects line up on team lists will factor in. On the Rays list, how do you stack up current No. 1 prospect (and No. 9 overall) Theo Gillen vs. Grady Emerson? And where do we stand in the Roch Cholowsky vs. Caleb Bonemer debate? Vahn Lackey compared to Walker Jenkins and Kaelen Culpepper on the Twins list?

Some of that we’ll put aside. We won’t put any of the top three Draft guys in the top 10, so adjustments will be made; Emerson goes ahead of Gillen in my book; Roch over Bonemer for me, but that’s just my opinion, and I’d put Lackey between Jenkins and Culpepper. But in terms of general area in the top 100? We’d probably do something like:

Emerson and Cholowsky probably land in the teens, perhaps stacking them around 16 and 17, behind Josuar Gonzalez. Lackey belongs a little bit behind that. I’ll put him at what would then be No. 23, behind George Lombard Jr.

This kind of question is always tough to answer without considering MLB performance, which is necessary considering Anderson hasn’t reached the big leagues yet. Since we started ranking prospects here, we had ranked a left-handed pitcher in the top 10 of our Top 100 just 15 total times. According to our records, only two have been No. 1 overall: David Price in 2009 and Matt Moore in 2012 (both Rays, for whatever that’s worth). Here’s the list of lefties who have been in a top 10 over the years (top rank in parentheses):

Matt Moore (1)
David Price (1)
Greg Miller (3)
MacKenzie Gore (3)
Julio Urías (4)
Clayton Kershaw (4)
Francisco Liriano (4)
Scott Kazmir (4)
Brian Matusz (5)
Aroldis Chapman (6)
Jeff Francis (6)
Cole Hamels (6)
Madison Bumgarner (6)
Danny Hultzen (9)
Tyler Skaggs (10)

Anderson now sits at No. 5 on our current Top 100, and that’s even more rarified air. While I can’t be 100 percent sure about guys who have moved into the top 5 in-season with graduations (we have records of all preseason and midseason lists), that group of 15 shrinks to 9 when looking at top fives. And none have been there since MacKenzie Gore in 2020. Now every year is different, but it definitely puts Anderson in select company, even though he has less than a full season of pro experience. Trying to think about what we thought about these hurlers as prospects, I’d probably do it this way:

1. David Price
2. Matt Moore
3. Mackenzie Gore
4. Clayton Kershaw
5. Kade Anderson
6. Julio Urías
7. Francisco Liriano
8. Scott Kazmir
9. Aroldis Chapman
10. Cole Hamels