Mailbag: Plan with middle relief, a motivated Oneil Cruz and much more
DALLAS — Hello, Pirates fans. Welcome to my weekly mailbag. Moved it to Monday due to the schedule. Thank you for understanding. Bunch of great questions, per usual. Let’s get started.
Hank Dave Burner Acc (@NotHankDave): What’s the plan with middle relievers?
Jason Mackey: This was asked a bunch of ways, for perfectly understandable reasons.
The back end of the Pirates bullpen has been solid. But they definitely have long-relief jobs to fill. Jose Urquidy, Hunter Barco and Cam Sanders couldn’t stick, although I think Barco was probably miscast and is better served building back up and developing as a starter.
I’m genuinely intrigued by Wilber Dotel. The stuff is there. We saw that in Spring Training. It’s simply a matter of executing and throwing strikes.
I asked general manager Ben Cherington about the likelihood of a trade this early in the season Sunday on the Pirates Insider Show, but he described that route as mostly picked over at this point. Which means solutions will likely be internal.
Dotel has a great opportunity in front of him. If he can throw strikes and cover innings when that situation arises, he’ll remain in the big leagues. Evan Sisk will get more opportunity.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them at some point try Thomas Harrington, who has a 4.32 ERA in four starts with Triple-A Indianapolis. Been in the big leagues before. Fits the profile. Though I’d imagine, like Barco, they have to be cognizant of his development as a starter.
BmoreYinz (@BmoreYinz): What do they do when Jared Triolo is eligible to return from the injured list?
Jason Mackey: We’re not there yet, although we’re getting close. Asked Cherington about Triolo Sunday. Cherington said Triolo has upped his movement and feels good. But the Pirates also don’t have a date for him to start a rehab assignment.
When Triolo does come off the IL, he will return to the MLB roster. That’s not a question. Now, how does that impact Nick Yorke and Nick Gonzales? Tough to say.
I like the versatility there. Those guys have been serviceable at three spots each. Triolo can play six.
But I question whether there would be enough available at-bats or whether it would be detrimental to someone. That’s possible. Cross that bridge when you come to it.
Chris Lait (@mrchrisl8): Oneil Cruz seems to be taking the game more seriously lately. Who does he listen to in the organization and who has been influencing him the most?
Jason Mackey: The Cruz dynamic is an interesting one. And not to keep harping on his, but it’s also something I asked Cherington about during our show.
I agree with you. He has looked more engaged, but I’d like to describe that dynamic more because I don’t want it to sound like Cruz was walking around not caring — he cares.
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It’s the same as Spring Training, honestly. You can tell when he’s motivated to prove something to somebody, and he’s looked that way since after the Mets series, when many were doubting and ripping him.
His defense has improved, especially his communication. Maybe it’s a small sample, I don’t know. Need to see more. But it has gotten at least a little bit better.
That said, he does need to reduce the strikeouts and swing-and-miss. But there are enough other good things that we don’t have to get dragged down by that stuff.
As for who he listens to … a lot of people, honestly. He’s not an egomaniac or some sort of nonconformist. He just has a tendency to have his head in the clouds sometimes, and it’s cost him and the Pirates at times.
Don Kelly has challenged him. Tony Beasley has challenged him. Miguel Perez (bullpen coach and former Minor League manager) has challenged him. Major league coach and translator Stephen Morales has challenged him.
Cruz has done a solid job responding — he’s second among Pirates position players in fWAR at 0.8 — but the job also isn’t done.
Johnny Jackson (@JaXsiin): Which player has impressed you the most this year?
Jason Mackey: I enjoyed this question, Johnny. Thank you. Made me think.
Let’s start with a definition. I’m defining impressed as doing something at least somewhat unexpected, hence why I’m not including Paul Skenes here. He’s been impressive, sure. But we’ve come to expect that.
I’m also crossing off some of the veterans because they’re paid and expected to produce. Their off-the-field impact has been impressive, but once again, it’s kind of why they signed those guys.
A big one who stands out for me is Carmen Mlodzinski, Tuesday’s starter, although Cruz is close.
If you polled the fan base, at least 90% probably rolled their eyes at the idea of Mlodzinski starting again. But he’s been really, really good, with an ERA under 2.00, and a belief in himself that has been impressive to see.
Another player who might fit into this category for me: Braxton Ashcraft. Again, we knew he would be good. Can’t say that’s terribly surprising. But he’s been elite, his 1.0 fWAR better than all but six starting pitchers in MLB. Furthermore, his expected ERA is just 1.98, the best in MLB.
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Matt (@Fattishi): The NL Central, of all divisions, is collectively off to an insane start. Which team is most surprising? Which start from a team not picked to win the division is sustainable? And which team is most likely to collapse by July?
Jason Mackey: The NL Central has been surprising. All five teams over .500. The last time five or more NL Central teams were over .500 19-plus games into a season was May 4, 2006. That was when there was six teams.
The last time every NL Central team was .500 or better 19-plus games into the season (this stat is a few days old) was May 29, 2004. Bottom line, it’s been a bit since the division looked like this.
I’d say the Cardinals, at 13-8, are the most surprising. Nobody expected that. They’ve won five straight. It’s probably the least sustainable and the one most likely to collapse by July, although the Reds (14-8, 1st place) are also in a precarious place.
They’ve started 10-0 in one-run games, which isn’t sustainable. They also have the worst run differential (-8) in the division.
Honestly, I think the Pirates might be the most sustainable here given the Cubs injuries to pitchers (10 on the IL) and what Pittsburgh has pitching-wise.
Mark Gutierrez (@Mark17403): Why can’t the Pirates use a consistent lineup? It’s maddening.
Jason Mackey: I have a few thoughts on this Mark, but I’ll start with this: Who cares? If it works, if they win, they can change the lineup every game. It’s also common around the game.
Managers seek platoon splits and scheme for matchups late in games. That’s always been a part of baseball, but it’s grown in importance with the proliferation of bullpens and analytics departments.
There’s also more thought given to rest and basically optimizing every possible thing.
Do I completely agree with that? No. I’d prefer a traditional setup and for teams to stick to it. I’d also like to see pitchers go deeper into games. But my opinion on both fronts is meaningless.
It’s the way pretty much all teams operate. Follow the Brewers, for example, and take note of how many times they roll out the same lineup back-to-back nights.
cody (@Nailersburgh24): Do we see Esmerlyn Valdez or Termarr Johnson this season?
Jason Mackey: Hi, Cody. Hope you’re doing well. I’d certainly think/hope so. If not, there’s probably some unfortunate situation that occurred.
Valdez was a little delayed after getting hit on the elbow. He’s fine now. Has a .929 OPS in 20 games at Triple-A. That’ll get you promoted when there’s an opportunity.
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Johnson is trickier. He’s hitting just .148 with a .487 OPS in Indy, but he also left Sunday’s game in the fifth inning, seemingly with an injury. That could impact things. I also don’t know where Johnson will play.
But a first-round pick five years ago who has shown flashes of productivity … yeah, it’s time to get him up here (when appropriate) to see what he can do.
John Taylor (@wvpirate): Any hope for a Brandon Lowe extension?
Jason Mackey: Hope on my end? Yes. I think Lowe has been fantastic, and I think a potential deal would make a bunch of sense for them.
But hope as it relates to something happening or whispers of talks, no. I think it’s too early for that stuff.
Numbers-wise, you and everyone else can see Lowe has been very good. Just have to do it over more than 22 games. Where he’s been especially valuable, though, is the clubhouse and being part of that veteran leadership group that I wrote about over the weekend.
Jason Mackey: Jason.Mackey@pirates.com and @JMackey_PGH.