No. 1 prospect Konnor Griffin's place in history

When prospect rankings come out, they are based on long-range projection. The order is based on who is perceived to be the best big leaguers five, 10 years down the road.

Over the years at MLB.com, there have been top-ranked prospects with eye-popping tools and scouting grades to match. Each tool is graded on a 20-to-80 scale, and players who land at the top of the rankings invariably have a bucket full of 60 (plus) or more tools. The hope, even if it doesn't happen during the player's climb to the big leagues, is that his production will match his projected potential.

The flip side of that coin are players who put up huge numbers in the Minor Leagues who surpass those grades, those who are labeled as prospects who "outplay their tools."

Then, every so often, comes a prospect who checks off all of the boxes at once. An incredibly talented player with a very full toolbox who also uses those tools in games to put up numbers. This year's No. 1 prospect, Konnor Griffin, is one of those unicorns.

All five of his tools are plus (60) or better. He hit his way across three levels as a teenager and put up absurd stats across the board. The question is, just how good of a prospect is he? Where does he stack up in the pantheon of the game's greatest prospects ever? Based on the tools, the grades and the opinions of the scouting industry, he at the very least belongs in the conversation of the best we've seen in quite some time.

What the scouts are saying

Scouts are, by their nature, not an effusive group. Their job is to evaluate players at every level with a critical eye. They’ll tell you when they see great potential or tools, but they'll generally shy away from throwing a "best prospect ever" label around. But some come close when it comes to Griffin.

"I saw him in the Florida State League last year," a long-time National League scouting executive said. "He would be on a very short list of all-time prospects I have scouted. I was really surprised with how good he was at shortstop. His tools are similar to A-Rod's. He's super-impressive, with power and speed off the charts."

Alex Rodriguez. Mike Trout. Byron Buxton. Bobby Witt Jr. These are the names as prospects brought up when Griffin is discussed. It's hard not to look at those players through the lens of what some of them went on to do as big league stars, but when trying to compare apples to apples, prospects to prospects, the Pirates shortstop measures up.

"We did have that conversation: Where does he fit?" a second NL scouting executive said. "Was it Trout or Upton, they were really, really good looking prospects, had tools and performance and projected upside. Witt did come up too.

"That's what we do in scouting. Our job is to show comparables to what they're doing and what they're projecting like. He does belong."

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An added element to all of this is that Griffin wasn't at the top of many Draft boards or rankings. MLB Pipeline had him at No. 9 on the Draft Top 250 as the 2024 Draft approached. There was general agreement that he probably had the loudest array of tools, but there were concerns about some holes in his swing. More than one scout also mentioned that the Mississippi high school he came out of was not a place to find high-end talent at one time, but that the level of competition there has improved.

"He's actually exceeded the whole hit tool evaluation," an American League scouting executive said. "I had given him four superstar tools; the hit was a concern to me, and I wasn't sure he was going to make adjustments. This kid has really exceeded expectations.

"The higher up he gets, the key to his success will be his ability to keep making adjustments. If he hits, he's legitimately a superstar. I think the industry is so fast to label someone as the next great thing, but that can be unfair to the kids and not being able to live up to those expectations, even though so far he has."

The grades

When looking at the history of top prospects on MLB.com, there haven’t been too many hitters who we’ve given overall 70s too, and Griffin is part of that select group. He’s one of 16, to be precise, since we started grading in this manner in 2016. They’re listed below, with the first year they appeared with that overall grade:

Byron Buxton (2014)
Xander Bogaerts (2014)
Oscar Taveras (2014)
Kris Bryant (2015)
Carlos Correa (2015)
Corey Seager (2016)
Ronald Acuña Jr. (2018)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2019)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (2019)
Eloy Jiménez (2019)
Wander Franco (2020)
Adley Rutschman (2022)
Bobby Witt Jr. (2022)
Julio Rodríguez (2022)
Jackson Holliday (2024)
Konnor Griffin (2026)

It should be noted that Shohei Ohtani didn't get a 70 overall as a hitter, but did as a pitcher, in 2018. As always, he deserves a separate category. Grading players is far from an exact science, nor is there a truly objective way to measure these 70s against each other. But when adding up all the tools grades, there are 10 who score at 300 or better, and Griffin clocks in well. He's literally on the short list in this regard.

Buxton: 355
Griffin: 325
Acuña: 315
Correa: 310
Witt: 310
Franco: 305
Rodríguez: 305
Guerrero: 300
Holliday: 300
Taveras: 300

The stats

As mentioned above, Griffin doesn't only have huge grades; he's put them to very good use in his one year of pro ball. Standing alone, it's impressive: .333/.415/.527, 21 HR, 94 RBI, 65 SB, 50 BB, 122 K, 165 wRC+. Just like with his grades, when stacked up against other elite-level seasons, it really measures up.

Since 2004, when we started ranking prospects, Griffin's 255 total bases from last year place him ninth among all Minor Leaguers in their age 19 (or younger) season. There have been nine players that age who posted an OPS of .940 or higher:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2018): 1.076
Billy Butler (2005): 1.015
Giancarlo Stanton (2008): .992
Bo Bichette (2017): .988
Samuel Basallo (2023): .953
Byron Buxton (2013): .944
Joey Gallo (2013): .944
Konnor Griffin (2025): .942
Jackson Holliday (2023): .941

FanGraphs has wRC+ totals dating back to 2006. Griffin's total of 165 wRC+ led all teens in 2025. It's not the be-all, end-all statistic, but it's another marker of just how good Griffin's first full year of pro ball was that puts league averages into context. The top 10, with a minimum of 400 plate appearances over the past 20 years:

191, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2018)
175, Bo Bichette (2017)
167, Byron Buxton (2013)
167, Jaff Decker (2009)
165, Samuel Basallo (2023)
165, Konnor Griffin (2025)
165, Wil Myers (2010)
163, Eloy Jimenez (2016)
162, Mike Trout (2011)
161, Giancarlo Stanton (2008)

No matter how you slice this one up, it's clear Griffin's name absolutely belongs on any short list of greatest top prospects we've seen over the past two decades. That's not a guarantee of future stardom, of course, with the lists above littered with players who had huge grades or huge early seasons who never quite lived up to the very lofty expectations set for them. We should find out soon if Griffin is ready to join the list of elites in the big leagues. As one of the NL executives put it:

"We all know that who they become, that's the outcome," he said. "The process, these are the guys he's aligned with in terms of their body of work. Do [the Pirates] let the Minors develop him or do they let him win the job this spring?"