Who slots into the Twins' rotation after López, Ryan and Ober?

This story was excerpted from Matthew Leach’s Twins Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Did you think I’d forgotten to wrap up Around the Horn? No such luck. Although camp is under way, a deep dive into various units of the 2026 Twins continues. We’re finally to the pitching staff, and more specifically, the rotation.

If the Twins are going to contend in ’26, it will have to start with this unit, which features both a strong top two and lots of intriguing depth.

On the 40-man roster: Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, David Festa, Pablo López, Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Bailey Ober, Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya, Kendry Rojas, Joe Ryan, Simeon Woods Richardson

New arrivals: None

Departures: None

Top 30 prospects: Rojas (No. 5), Dasan Hill (No. 7), Prielipp (No. 9), Riley Quick (No. 10), Ryan Gallagher (No. 14), Charlee Soto (No. 15), C.J. Culpepper (No. 17), Raya (No. 18), Morris (No. 19), James Ellwanger (No. 20), Matt Barr (No. 22), Adrian Bohorquez (No. 23), Jose Olivares (No. 24), Jason Reitz (No. 27)

The big question: Just how much of a competition is there?

At first glance, it would appear that only three spots in the Twins' rotation are set, and arguably only two are really set in stone. López and Ryan will pitch the first two games in some order, and assuming he’s healthy and right, Ober is the third starter.

Conventional wisdom has held that after those two, it’s pretty open. Bradley, Woods Richardson, Matthews, Festa and Abel are likely to be the frontrunners for two final spots, with Rojas and Prielipp as long shots hoping to make an impression for down the road. That perception is strengthened by the fact that López, Ryan and Bradley will all pitch in the World Baseball Classic. That means that all of the contenders will get plenty of innings to make their cases.

But … just how wide open is it? The Twins gave up a significant piece (Griffin Jax) to get Bradley, and though the righty is only 24 years old, he’s made 73 big league starts. He made six starts down the stretch for the Twins last season after a stint with Triple-A St. Paul. It’s conceivable that he could get bumped if he struggles this spring, but Bradley has to be a significant favorite for a starting spot.

Meanwhile, Woods Richardson made 22 starts for the Twins last year and posted a solid 4.04 ERA, finishing very strong. He’s also out of options, so he has only two potential destinations as a Twin -- in the big league rotation or the big league bullpen. As with Bradley, he’s certainly not a lock to be in the rotation, but you’d have to say he’s favored.

So where does that leave Matthews, Festa and Abel? Well, the good news is they’ll have every opportunity to compete. Thanks to the aforementioned Classic commitments, there will be plenty of innings to go around. If any of them have taken a big step forward this offseason, they’ll have the chance to show it.

Two of the runners-up will likely head St. Paul to pitch in the rotation, since no team can be lucky enough to only need five starters all season. The Twins will almost certainly dip into their depth over the course of the year. One, however, will probably be bullpen bound. Even if none of them is in the season opening bullpen, the club will likely determine that at least one of these promising young arms is the next Jax or Louie Varland or Jhoan Duran.

That’s to be determined over the next six weeks.