With star-studded farm system, AL-best Rays could get aggressive at Deadline

BOSTON -- Evan Longoria doesn’t pretend to follow the daily ins and outs of every team in Major League Baseball. He’s enjoying retirement, after all. But the newly minted Rays Hall of Famer has seen enough on Instagram and follows his former team closely enough to pick up on one important point.

“They’ve put themselves in a position to be, obviously, buyers at the Deadline and to contend deep,” Longoria said during his “Legacy Weekend” festivities at Tropicana Field. “It seems like this is a bit of a down year for the AL East -- not for the Rays.”

That is a pretty accurate assessment of the way things have gone so far. The Rays entered the All-Star break with the American League’s best record. The Yankees are three games behind in the standings, and there are only three other teams in the AL with winning records.

Record at the break: 56-38 (First in AL East, three-game lead for best record in AL)
Record at the break last year: 50-47 (Fourth in AL East, 5 1/2 games back)
Playoff odds: 97.6%, per FanGraphs
Remaining Strength of Schedule: .488 (28th, third-easiest in MLB)

That puts the Rays in good position as it relates to the postseason, of course. It also puts them in a fascinating place ahead of the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline.

They have been the AL’s best team for much of the season. They have stars in the lineup, in the rotation and at the back of their bullpen. They do a lot of things well, and their chemistry and camaraderie have been big parts of their narrative since the early days of Spring Training.

What does that mean for president of baseball operations Erik Neander and his staff as they look for ways to upgrade the roster? They must not only consider the final 2 1/2 months of the regular season, but also what will set them up for success in October.

“It starts with us, right? It starts with the players, how we're playing. We're going to be the tone-setter of what the front office does,” All-Star starter Nick Martinez said. “If we're playing hard and we're playing for that playoff spot, it should be motivation for the front office to be buyers.”

Not that Neander and Co. need much motivation on that front, given how competitive they are and the fact that the Rays are coming off two straight seasons that ended with Game 162. This front office has always taken the approach of trying to reach the postseason every year, believing that’s the best way to win a World Series, but the Rays have also aggressively sought to improve their best teams.

Not all of those moves came to pass. (Shohei Ohtani did not become a Ray in 2023, despite Tampa Bay’s willingness to deal a prospect by the name of Junior Caminero.) They didn’t all work out. (Nelson Cruz, Aaron Civale, etc.) But Tampa Bay’s mentality is typically that of an aggressive buyer when there’s a chance to win the division.

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So, what’s on the table? It’s fun to think about Tarik Skubal swooping in for the stretch run and an unforgettable October, sure, and such a pursuit wouldn’t be out of character. But it mostly means the Rays will be active, looking to address any potential weaknesses that could stand between what they’ve done so far and what they want to do in October.

“Know that Erik will do everything he can to improve our club, like he always does,” manager Kevin Cash said. “Definitely appreciative of the guys that are here right now and feel like we’ve got a very strong group with us right now.”

Here are four more things to consider as the second half begins and baseball’s focus shifts toward the Trade Deadline.

Biggest need: Another proven hitter

Don’t be surprised if the Rays bring in another starting pitcher, either to ease some workload concerns down the stretch or to increase their odds once they get into the postseason. Fortifying the bullpen would help, too. But their most obvious need is for another bat behind the “Big Three” of Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Caminero. They’re not getting much offense from their outfield, middle infield or catcher, so they have options. Even if it’s not a big-time power threat to bat cleanup, a reliable contact hitter like Luis Arraez would go a long way.

Biggest chip: Prospect depth

The Rays’ deep Minor League system has only gotten better thanks to a few breakout seasons and another Draft class full of high-upside players. Theo Gillen, Nathan Flewelling and Caden Bodine are Top 100 Prospects, and No. 2 overall pick Grady Emerson will join Gillen atop Tampa Bay’s system. So, take a quick scroll down their Top 30 Prospects list -- or look at recently graduated prospects like shortstop Carson Williams -- and you can see why the Rays are well-positioned to be aggressive at this Deadline. They don’t necessarily have to deal their top prospects, because they have so many they can use to make whatever moves they need.

Key player for second half: LF Chandler Simpson

Simpson is not necessarily the Rays’ most important player. Their lineup is much more dependent upon Díaz, Aranda and Caminero. It’s hard to imagine their rotation without Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Martinez or, now, Griffin Jax. And their bullpen would be in trouble without Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly. But Simpson is a wild card, the difference between their lineup being fine and being dangerous. When he’s hitting for a high average, making the defense panic and wreaking havoc on the bases, the Rays are a different team.

Determining Factor: The AL East standings

Typically, the Rays’ willingness to be aggressive at the Deadline is directly correlated to their odds of claiming a first-round bye in the postseason. As long as they maintain their current position, or are at least within striking distance of the division title, it feels safe to say Neander will prioritize the present over the future. Those moves don’t always work out -- Joe Ryan for Cruz, Kyle Manzardo for Civale, etc. -- but it will send a message to the clubhouse: They believe in this team.