Biggest questions as Rays close in on playoff berth, top seed in AL

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry's Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ATLANTA -- Five months ago, it seemed almost unfathomable that the Rays would be where they are right now. Widely predicted to finish last in the American League East, Tampa Bay lost three of its first four series and looked like a flawed, albeit talented and cohesive, group that might struggle in a challenging American League this season.

But here are the Rays, three weeks from the first game of the postseason, with the best record in the AL. Everything they want is ahead of them -- and entirely within their grasp.

They are getting increasingly close to clinching their first trip to the postseason since 2023. The first celebration could come as soon as Thursday.

They have a four-game lead over the Yankees for the AL’s best record with 19 games remaining. The AL East is once again a beast that could send four teams to the playoffs, but the rest of the league is muddled enough to envision a path to the franchise’s third World Series appearance.

It’s difficult to overstate the importance of winning the division, gaining home-field advantage and securing a first-round bye. The Rays haven’t won a postseason series since 2020, and bypassing the Wild Card Series would put them one step closer to a championship with the added benefit of extra rest ahead of a best-of-five AL Division Series.

The stretch run is here. Winning is all that matters. Here’s what else we’ll be watching the rest of the way.

The final push
This three-game series against the Braves is important, and this weekend’s matchup with the Astros could be an AL Championship Series preview, pitting arguably the top two AL MVP candidates -- Yordan Alvarez and Junior Caminero -- against each other.

But the toughest, most crucial part of the Rays’ schedule is the haul from Sept. 18-27: three games at home against the Red Sox, four in three days at Yankee Stadium and three more in Philadelphia to finish the regular season.

The Red Sox will have plenty at stake as they try to gain ground in the division race or at least gain an edge for home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series. The Yankees series, starting with a Sept. 22 doubleheader, could very well decide the division. If the season ended today, the Sox and Yankees would meet in a best-of-three Wild Card Series for the chance to advance to the ALDS against … the Rays.

And don’t overlook the Phillies series. They could have a lot on the line, too, whether it’s the National League East title or home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series. It would be ideal for Tampa Bay to have the division race decided by then, because Citizens Bank Park could be crazy that weekend.

Award chases and stat races
The team comes first, of course, but the Rays have a lot of individual accolades within their reach this month.

Caminero has a shot to gain ground on Alvarez, currently the favorite to win AL MVP, and either way seems likely to command the Rays’ highest-ever finish for that award while also pushing for the team’s first outright AL home run crown. (The single-season franchise home run record of 46 is also again in play after he finished one shy last season.) Hot-hitting Chandler Simpson, or even Yandy Díaz, could help Caminero’s chances by swiping the AL batting title from Alvarez.

Drew Rasmussen may not be a favorite for the AL Cy Young Award, but a strong finish could push him further up many ballots. Leading the league’s best team would only help Kevin Cash’s case for a third AL Manager of the Year Award. And closer Bryan Baker is sure to receive consideration for the Baseball Writers’ Association of America’s first AL Reliever of the Year Award if he boosts his Major League-leading save total.

Who’s healthy? Who’s hot?
It may be an oversimplification, but the best team does not always win in October. Usually, the postseason is decided by which team is the healthiest and which team gets hot at the right time.

With that in mind, we’ll be watching the Rays’ injured list and the performance of some of their most important players and position groups that could decide how long they play next month.

Will Shane McClanahan be healthy and ready to start a postseason game? Any chance Ben Williamson and/or Jake Fraley can make it back and make an impact? What’s the status of relievers Garrett Cleavinger and Manuel Rodríguez? What does that mean for a bullpen that struggled, outside of Tyler Wells, in Texas over the weekend? How are Simpson and the “Big Four” atop the order hitting?

Playoff roster spots
This ties into the last topic because, at a certain point, you have to start seriously considering who belongs on the postseason roster. Matchups will play a part in that, of course, but health and recent performance matter, too.

How will the Rays set their rotation, especially when they’ll only need three starters in their first series? If Freddy Peralta keeps up what he’s been doing lately, it will be tough to deny him a spot.

Would they push other starters, like Griffin Jax, to the bullpen? Can a prospect like Ty Johnson show enough over the next three weeks to earn a spot? Will they continue to carry a third catcher in Kenny Piper? What’s the right balance of position players and pitchers in a short series?