What we'll soon learn about the Rays' mettle

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry's Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ST. PETERSBURG -- On Friday night, the Rays began a long and important stretch.

Tampa Bay is scheduled to play 17 games in the next 17 days, a key run after it stumbled into the second half. The club has lost 11 of 18 games and won only one of six series since the All-Star break.

What’s gone wrong? The Rays had allowed four or more runs in 11 of 18 games entering Friday’s series opener against the Orioles. They’ve continued to make baffling mistakes in the field and on the bases. But their wildly inconsistent lineup is the biggest concern, as Tampa Bay has averaged only 3.4 runs per game while hitting just .225/.308/.339 in the second half.

Will the Rays reverse course over the next 17 days? Here’s what we should learn about the team over the next 2 1/2 weeks.

1) A potentially (and surprisingly) important tiebreaker result
As of Friday morning, the Rays (58-52) held the final AL Wild Card spot -- behind the Blue Jays and Mariners -- but are just a half-game ahead of the Orioles (58-53). Not only that, but Tampa Bay and Baltimore have split their season series so far: Eight wins apiece, with only three games to go this weekend.

Due to the new postseason format, this weekend might prove very significant come October.

There are no more Game 163s. If teams finish the regular-season schedule with the same record, whoever won the season series wins a key tiebreaker. Thus, if the Rays and Orioles finish tied for the third Wild Card, whichever team wins the season series will make the postseason and the other will not.

Maybe Tampa Bay will hit its stride and surge ahead, or Baltimore will falter and fall behind, making this all irrelevant. Still, it's worth noting: The Rays are 16-2 against the O's at home since 2020 and haven’t lost a home series to Baltimore since June 23-25, 2017.

Who’d have thought back in April that this would even be a concern, anyway?

2) Where they stand before the stretch run
It’s interesting to look at the standings now, and we’re getting closer to scoreboard-watching season. But to put it simply, a lot can change in 17 days. Consider: 17 games ago, the Rays were 11 games over .500 and alone in second in the AL East.

By the time this stretch is over, we should have a better feel for Tampa Bay’s postseason odds. Or, at least, what the Rays will have to overcome heading into a brutal September schedule.

They’ll finish August with series against four clubs that currently have losing records: the Royals, Angels, Red Sox and Marlins. After that? Six games with the Yankees, nine (!) with the Blue Jays, six against the Astros and three against the Guardians, plus two series against Boston and one against Texas.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Rays’ remaining schedule has a weighted opponents’ winning percentage of .531, highest in the AL and third in the Majors. It won’t be easy. That makes the rest of this month even more important.

3) Just how healthy they’ll get
For the first time in a while, Tampa Bay has some good news on the injury front. Manuel Margot has begun a rehab assignment, with hopes of returning when eligible on Aug. 20.

Wander Franco and Harold Ramírez were expected to take batting practice on the field with the Rays on Friday. Those two could return around the same time as Margot, if everything goes well. All three should be a boost to their lineup and bench.

Things are a little less certain on the pitching side. J.P. Feyereisen is headed for an MRI on his shoulder. Shane Baz is about to begin two weeks of plyometric exercises. Matt Wisler received injections in his stiff neck. JT Chargois and Nick Anderson are still rehabbing in Triple-A, looking to get their stuff back.

On a potentially positive note, Yonny Chirinos and Brendan McKay are doing well with Single-A Charleston, and Josh Fleming should face hitters soon. Plus, Tyler Glasnow is still on track to start facing hitters on Aug. 20, after which we should know more about his chances of returning late this season.

Then, it’s a question of what a more fully formed team might look like. Will those hitters fix their offensive issues? Will those arms add depth to their pitching staff? Will all that be enough to survive the September gauntlet and get back into the postseason?