How the Rays can send the World Series back to Milwaukee
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ST. PETERSBURG -- The Brewers were already the favorite in this World Series. They earned that by finishing the regular season with the best record in the Major Leagues before sweeping the back-to-back champion Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.
Two games into this World Series, the American League champion Rays’ odds haven’t gotten any better. History tells the story in this situation. In best-of-seven postseason series with the current 2-3-2 format, teams taking a 2-0 lead at home -- as the Brewers just did -- have gone on to win 47 of 58 times.
Of course, there is some hope for those maintaining their belief in Tampa Bay. The Rays are 59-27 at Tropicana Field this year, with a 4-1 mark in the postseason. And 16 teams have rallied from a 2-0 deficit, and two have done so in the past three seasons: the Blue Jays in last year’s ALCS and the D-backs in the 2023 NLCS.
“Look, we’re down 2-0, but we haven’t lost the World Series,” designated hitter Yandy Díaz said through interpreter Kevin Vera. “There’s still work to do.”
But it hasn’t happened in the World Series in 30 years, not since the Yankees rallied past the Braves in 1996. Can the Rays do it, too?
“I think we still love each other and know the talent in this clubhouse,” center fielder Jonny DeLuca said Saturday night. “It’s going to be a great story, coming back and being able to play these next few games and get some momentum back on our feet.”
If the Rays are going to make history and win the first World Series championship in franchise history, or at least survive long enough to send the series back to Milwaukee, here are three things they’ll have to do.
1. Ride the rotation
The Brewers entered this series with a deeper lineup and a more dominant bullpen. The Rays’ one advantage, it seemed, was a stronger rotation. But Milwaukee nullified that edge by winning Games 1 and 2, even after Tampa Bay reset its starting staff to have ace Drew Rasmussen pitch in Game 2 on five days’ rest.
The Rays can’t continue to waste the one apparent advantage they have, which means they need another great outing from ALCS MVP Freddy Peralta in Game 3. The former Brewers ace has been all but untouchable lately, going 7-0 with a 0.89 ERA in his last 10 games (including nine starts) over the past two months.
“We've got a really good pitcher going, as do they,” manager Kevin Cash said. “A lot of confidence in this club to respond. They've done it all season long, and they'll continue to do it.”
It’s not entirely clear how the Rays will handle Game 4, although right-hander Griffin Jax would presumably be involved in some starting/bulk-inning capacity. If they are facing elimination, anything would be on the table.
Winning once to force a Game 5 would allow the Rays to put their season in the hands of their three most trusted starters: Nick Martinez, Rasmussen and Peralta.
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2. Clean it up
Left fielder Chandler Simpson summed it up well when asked what lesson the Rays could take from the first two games of this Series.
“We’ve got to play clean versus those guys,” Simpson said.
The Rays did that throughout the regular season. More than arguably any other team, they rarely beat themselves. They made smart decisions. Their pitchers avoided walks. Their hitters put the ball in play. Their defenders converted balls in play into outs.
That wasn’t the case in Milwaukee. The Rays were uncharacteristically sloppy, which led a frustrated Junior Caminero to shout at his teammates in the dugout in an apparent attempt to energize them.
Will Caminero’s message come through? Will they be better for the experience they gained in Games 1 and 2? Will it help to be in a more friendly, familiar environment at Tropicana Field?
Their season depends on the answer.
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3. Build the bridge
Two months ago, the Rays’ bullpen looked like a strength heading into the home stretch of the regular season.
Now, suddenly, it seems like Cash has nowhere to turn besides top left-hander Cam Booser and closer Bryan Baker, both of whom have been excellent this month despite Baker’s diminished fastball velocity. Everyone else in the bullpen has given up at least one run, besides lefty Garrett Cleavinger, who got two outs in Game 1 in his first game action since Sept. 4.
Kevin Kelly has given up eight hits in four innings. Tyler Wells has allowed five runs on six hits. Ian Seymour gave up the game-tying homer in Game 2, continuing a rough stretch out of the bullpen.
Unless Peralta pitches seven or eight innings in Game 3, someone is going to have to step up in the bullpen and turn into a sure thing to build the bridge from the starter to the closer. Will it be Jax or Martinez, or is there another answer out in the bullpen?