One minor change(up) revolutionized the Rays' pitching staff

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ST. PETERSBURG -- Griffin Jax was standing in front of his locker at Rogers Centre in Toronto on July 22 when he started looking around the visitors’ clubhouse.

Jax was coming off a strong start, having held the Blue Jays to just one run over six innings. He threw his changeup a lot, with the offspeed offering accounting for 25 of his 83 pitches on the night. He finished each of his five strikeouts with changeups and forced the Jays to whiff on nine of their 17 swings against it.

Such is life when facing the 2026 Rays’ pitching staff. You’re going to see a lot of changeups, and you’re probably not going to like it.

“If you go up and down this staff, it's a lot of really good changeups,” Jax said. Then he started reeling off names.

All-Star closer Bryan Baker features an elite changeup. Top setup man Kevin Kelly developed a good one, too. It’s the top offspeed offering for starters Nick Martinez and Shane McClanahan. Same for bulk-innings lefty Ian Seymour. All-Star starter Drew Rasmussen is better known for his fastballs and breaking balls, but hey, he also found a good changeup.

“A lot of quality changeups in here,” Jax concluded. “It’s a pitch that’s been really working.”

That’s an understatement.

Here’s one way to look at it, based on where the Rays’ team-wide changeup usage and effectiveness ranked among the league leaders as of Thursday morning.

For context, the second-highest changeup usage rate belongs to the Padres, at 17.3%. The league as a whole is throwing changeups only 11.1% of the time, illustrating how far outside the norm the Rays have veered.

But that’s got nothing on the Rays’ edge on strikeouts ending in changeups. The Phillies have the second most in the league, with 161. Yes, 120 fewer than the Rays.

Tampa Bay has often been ahead of the curve when it comes to pitching trends and finding different ways to be successful on the mound. In this case, a change -- or changeup -- has done the staff good.

“I think it just goes back to emphasizing these guys throwing their best pitches as often as possible, right? That's no secret,” pitching coach Kyle Snyder said. “That's been something that we've pushed for a long time. I think some of it's how we've been rostered, what we've acquired, and some of it's just the development of that pitch.”

Here’s a quick breakdown highlighting some of the Rays’ top pitchers’ changeup usage, as well as the batting averages and whiff rates that those offspeed offerings have produced. These stats were also updated before Tampa Bay’s series finale against Texas on Thursday.

It’s somewhat unfair to group them all together. As Martinez said, channeling Snyder: “There’s no two changeups that are alike.”

Some are elite due to their movement, like the way Jax and McClanahan’s move horizontally. Others are effective because there’s such a large gap in velocity with the pitcher’s fastball -- roughly 10 mph for Baker, for example, and even greater for Martinez.

“You talk about velo, shapes, arm angles -- and we have an array of that, right? We have obviously a really good changeup-throwing team, and not one of them is the same,” Martinez said. “They each bring something different to the table, and I think that's what makes it very hard for hitters to prepare against.”

As Snyder said, personnel is a key factor here.

The Rays have acquired pitchers like Martinez, Baker and Steven Matz who lean on their changeups. McClanahan’s return has played a part. Seymour and changeup-heavy reliever Cole Sulser have already handled more innings than they did last season.

“Sometimes it's just how you're built and what options you have as pitchers, what the priority is to your offspeed pitching,” manager Kevin Cash said. “You're not surprising guys at this point that you're going to get it. There's just not a great answer for it. I think it's because it's very tough to read that pitch. It looks like a fastball coming in, and the bottom falls out.”

But there is also some development taking place. Jax began throwing a changeup in 2022, got comfortable with it as a reliever last year, then started using it even more when he moved into the rotation. Kelly incorporated a changeup into his mix over the offseason, and Rasmussen added a “kick-change” to his repertoire of hard stuff this season.

“Everyone's a little different,” McClanahan said. “I think [the Rays] do a really good job of understanding what makes it good and then helping you refine that and know how to use it at the right times.”

Rasmussen believes it’s an example of how quickly the game evolves. A dozen years ago, low sinkers and sliders were all the rage. Then everyone wanted to throw high fastballs and diving breaking balls. Next came the rise of the sweeper. Now, everyone -- including Rasmussen and Martinez -- seems to be throwing three different fastballs.

What’s the next trend? Maybe we’re looking at it.

“That’s basically what this game is: As hitters adapt, pitchers need to also be willing to change a little bit, and I think that's what we have found to be successful this year,” Rasmussen said. “I’ve been really fortunate to be here and be on the leading edge of all that stuff.

“But also what it means is, here in about 18 months, we’re going to be adapting again.”