Should Rays want to face White Sox or Guardians in ALCS?

ST. PETERSBURG -- Outside of northeast Ohio and the South Side of Chicago, and perhaps the Vatican, there might not be anyone watching Game 5 of the American League Division Series on Saturday night with greater interest than the Rays.

Whoever comes out on top of that winner-take-all matchup at Progressive Field will advance to the AL Championship Series. The Rays will be waiting at Tropicana Field, where they will host the Guardians or White Sox in Game 1 on Monday night.

Who will it be? The Rays will be watching, then they’ll quickly finish their preparation for whichever AL Central opponent emerges from that quadrant of the postseason bracket.

“I think right now, we're just fans of baseball watching two good teams,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said during a Zoom call from Tropicana Field on Friday afternoon. “We'll find out a lot probably around 11:30 p.m. tomorrow.”

The Rays were in a similar position heading into the AL Division Series, waiting to see whether the Yankees or Red Sox would advance, but their familiarity with both AL East rivals negated some aspects of the uncertainty then. Clearly, based on the way they swept past the Yankees, it didn’t bother them.

This situation isn’t identical, though, because the Rays don’t have the same level of head-to-head experience with teams they faced only six times apiece this season. Plus, all those matchups took place before the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline.

The Rays won their season series against the White Sox, 4-2, although timing played a part in those outcomes. Tampa Bay swept the series at Rate Field from April 14-16 and outscored the South Siders, 21-11. But the White Sox won a three-game series at the Trop from July 31-Aug. 2 and outscored the Rays, 15-3.

“What we saw of Chicago in the beginning of the season is different than the team they are now, for sure,” Cash said. “We saw midway through they came in here and played really good baseball.”

It was somewhat of a similar story with the AL Central champion Guardians. The Rays won the season series, 5-1, and outscored Cleveland, 20-8. Tampa Bay took two of three at Progressive Field from April 27-29, only losing against a gem by Gavin Williams, then swept a three-game set at the Trop from July 24-26 that was highlighted by a brilliant 1-0 duel between Drew Rasmussen and Parker Messick.

Throw out the Rays’ 11-3 romp on July 24, and every game they played against the Guardians this season was decided by three runs or fewer. In fact, half of their games were decided by just one run, and two of those were 1-0 victories.

“As far as the Guardians go, it feels like it's kind of like a Yankees series where they're always tight ballgames,” Cash said. “Very well-played. Very well-pitched. Big, timely hits.”

Both teams have had to get creative with their pitching plans in the ALDS, running bullpen days and seemingly using their whole staff just to get to Game 5. And the decisive matchup is bound to be an all-hands-on-deck affair that will only further drain their available pitchers while the Rays watch from afar.

“It should be to our advantage. Of course, it's baseball. Anything can happen,” Rays reliever Kevin Kelly said Friday. “I'm sure we're all going to be watching the game tomorrow, and then we'll know who it is.”

Which team would the Rays rather face? That’s hard to say.

The White Sox certainly present power at the plate, which could concern a Tampa Bay staff that allowed the eighth-most home runs (201) in the Majors this season.

The White Sox ranked fifth in the league in homers (211) and were the only team in the Majors with three 30-homer bats: Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery. Chase Meidroth, Sam Antonacci and former Ray Tristan Peters balance that pop with a little more contact and on-base ability.

Chicago’s pitching leaves more to be desired, which is why manager Will Venable has had to piece games together in the ALDS, but Sean Burke has put up front-line numbers for a few months. The right-hander produced a 2.74 ERA with 112 strikeouts in 98 2/3 innings over his final 18 appearances and pitched well in Game 2 of the ALDS.

The Guardians seem like the tougher matchup on paper, though, as all their close games against the Rays would indicate.

High-end starters like Messick and Williams can swing a series, and both pitched well enough to beat the Rays during the regular season. Closer Cade Smith can be a nightmare in the ninth inning, and Cleveland has an incredible ability to get the most out of its arms.

Plus, this Cleveland lineup is deeper in some ways than the groups Tampa Bay has seen in the past, although the Guardians didn’t have a single 20-homer hitter this season. José Ramírez still leads the way, even after a down year at the plate, but he’s got plenty of support in Jo Adell, Chase DeLauter, Travis Bazzana and Steven Kwan, among others.