With AL East title on line, Yanks determined to keep Rays from celebrating in Bronx

NEW YORK -- It has felt inevitable that the American League East race would be decided this week in the Bronx.

The Rays have led the Majors’ most competitive division for most of the season, and they haven’t ceded the top spot in the standings since reclaiming first place on June 27.

But the Yankees have always been there -- threatening and falling back, perhaps -- but never trailing by enough to diminish the potential importance of this week.

Well, here it is.

The Yankees will host the Rays in a four-game series at Yankee Stadium, beginning with a separate-admission doubleheader on Tuesday. Thanks to the Rays’ terrific homestand and the Yankees’ series loss in Phoenix, the question now is how much longer this race will remain alive.

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The Rays arrived in New York holding a six-game lead in the division race with only seven games remaining. One victory by Tampa Bay will eliminate the Yankees from the AL East race and lock them into an AL Wild Card spot. So for the Yankees to have any chance, they must pull off a four-game, three-day sweep.

The stakes? As Gerrit Cole once said, “They’re high.” Let’s dive in.

What’s at stake?

Rays: Winning just one game will guarantee the Rays’ first AL East championship since 2021, giving them a bye through the Wild Card Series and home field advantage in both the AL Division Series and -- if they advance -- the AL Championship Series. They also need just one win to clinch the season series against the Yankees.

Yankees: Manager Aaron Boone acknowledges that it would be a “tall order” to keep the Rays from spraying bubbly in the Bronx, but that’s exactly what they intend to do. They entered the season looking to change the narrative after coming up short in their pursuit of the Blue Jays last year. They’re instead on the verge of settling for another consolation prize and needing to fight through a best-of-three.

How are the starting rotations lined up?

Rays: They will send their two best starters to the mound for Tuesday’s doubleheader. First comes veteran right-hander Nick Martinez, their clubhouse leader and most dependable source of innings. Tampa Bay has a 22-7 record behind Martinez this season. Then comes Drew Rasmussen, one of the AL’s top starters. The Rays haven’t lost one of Rasmussen’s starts since July 9, going a perfect 11-0 in his outings since then. Martinez will be pitching with an extra day of rest, while Rasmussen will be working on four days’ rest for only the seventh time this season. Left-hander Ian Seymour and right-hander Freddy Peralta would be in line to start Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

Yankees: Carlos Rodón and Max Fried will start the doubleheader, in that order. Both have dealt with injuries this season but are rounding into form at the right time. In three September starts, Rodón is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA, putting a bout with left elbow inflammation into his rear-view mirror. After twice landing on the injured list with a bone bruise in his pitching elbow, Fried is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three September starts. Cole and AL Cy Young Award frontrunner Cam Schlittler follow in the third and fourth games of the series, respectively.

What has been going well for each team lately?

Rays: Um, everything? The Rays just went 8-1 during their final regular-season homestand, and they’ve won four straight series against the Braves, Astros, A’s and Red Sox. Since getting swept in a four-game series at Fenway Park coming out of the All-Star break, they’ve put together a 39-18 record -- the best in baseball since July 20. Their starting pitching has been particularly strong, with a 2.81 ERA this month that ranks second to only the Yankees. They have found different ways to score runs, as usual, including early rallies like Sunday and a pair of walk-off homers from AL MVP candidate Junior Caminero.

Yankees: These Yanks suddenly find themselves leaning on the strength of their pitching, believing the offense will eventually deliver. Ben Rice cracked his team-leading 39th home run, fulfilling a prediction Boone made in Spring Training. Rice said Boone was teasing him, coming up “one or two” short of his preferred total, so look for Rice to swing for his 40th this week. Austin Wells has hit three homers in his last six games, while Heliot Ramos has homered in his last two games. He could be an important piece if the Yankees are going to make October noise.

What are some areas of concern that could be an issue this week or in the postseason?

Rays: Plenty of Rays have picked up the slack, but leadoff man Yandy Díaz has had a tough month, with a .229/.286/.357 slash line in September. He sets the tone for their lineup, so it’s obviously important for him to be in top form come October. And this is really nitpicking, considering he’s 3-0 with a save and a 1.42 ERA this month, but MLB saves leader Bryan Baker has more walks (four) than strikeouts (two) in seven September appearances. He’ll need to be lights-out in the postseason, too.

Yankees: Other than Aaron Judge’s right calf strain, which the Yankees are treating like a top-secret matter of national importance, there are concerns bubbling about the state of the bullpen. Brent Headrick’s velocity has dipped and he may be showing fatigue after a Major League-leading 79 appearances. Tim Hill hasn’t been the automatic ground-ball machine of years past. Michael Fulmer gave up a game-winning homer in Arizona. But there’s no bigger issue than proving they can win without Judge, the engine around which their offense is built. They are 48-41 without him, compared to 41-25 with him.