Best rotation in baseball? Projections are high on Boston’s group

Who will have the best starting rotation in the Majors in 2026?

The Phillies are the reigning (and runaway) champs in that category, at least going by FanGraphs’ version of WAR. The Dodgers have a star-studded group that one could dream on winding up as the best in club history. The Mariners are stacked with notable names, and the Blue Jays have made some aggressive improvements this offseason. The Tigers have Tarik Skubal (at least for now). The Pirates have Paul Skenes.

But if you look at the projections over at FanGraphs, the answer is … the Red Sox. (Again, this is going by fWAR.) That actually was technically the case before Boston agreed to a deal on Wednesday with left-hander Ranger Suárez, one of the top starters available on the free-agent market, but it’d be more accurate to say the Sox were in a virtual tie at the top with the Dodgers. Now they are clearly in the No. 1 spot.

Top projected starting rotations for 2026
Per FanGraphs (as of Thursday)

1. Red Sox: 18.3 WAR
2. Dodgers: 17.1 WAR
3. Tigers: 16.1 WAR
4. Phillies: 15.8 WAR
5-T. Pirates: 15.1 WAR|
5-T. Blue Jays: 15.1 WAR

What stands out about the Red Sox is not just that they’re first -- it’s also that in 2025, they ranked merely 12th, with their 11.6 rotation fWAR putting them a full 10 WAR behind the leader. The Phillies (first), Dodgers (fourth), Pirates (fifth) and Tigers (seventh) all ranked in the top seven a year ago, but the Red Sox, along with the Blue Jays (23rd) are projected for significant bumps in 2026.

Most improved starting rotations for 2026
2025 SP fWAR vs. 2026 projected (as of Thursday)

1. Red Sox: +6.7 WAR (11.6 to 18.3)
2. Blue Jays: +6.6 WAR (8.5 to 15.1)
3. Angels: +5.0 WAR (6.1 to 11.1)
4. Rockies: +4.9 WAR (1.5 to 6.4)
5. Braves: +4.5 WAR (10.1 to 14.6)

The Angels and Rockies were two of the bottom three rotations by fWAR in 2025, so they have more room to climb. The Blue Jays were also in the bottom 10, and the Braves were decimated by injuries. The Red Sox, though, already had a solid rotation. Now it looks a lot better -- even if it’s important to note that projections are hardly a guarantee of future results.

Let’s look at four reasons why Boston’s outlook is so rosy:

1. They have Garrett Crochet
This also was true of the 2025 Red Sox, so it doesn’t count toward the ‘26 club’s potential improvement. Still, it’s obviously an enormous factor why Boston ranks so highly here. Projections have Crochet right up there with Skubal and Skenes as the top three starting pitchers in MLB, and by a pretty wide margin over the next tier. That’s a significant advantage.

2. They acquired three key pieces
After Crochet, Boston’s top two starters (by far), as well as three of their next four, are offseason additions. Sonny Gray, acquired from the Cardinals, is projected as a top-10 starter, because despite his age (36) and 2025 ERA (4.28), many of his underlying metrics and skills remain strong. Suárez, who agreed to a five-year deal, has been a steady performer over his four seasons as a full-time MLB starter, balancing modest innings totals with strong run prevention. And Johan Oviedo, acquired from the Pirates, only made nine starts last season in his return from Tommy John surgery, but showcased some notable changes that could, with Boston’s help, lead to a 2026 breakout.

3. They added by subtracting
One way to build a great rotation is by having an elite ace like Crochet at the top. Another is to avoid having weak links at the bottom who are dragging down the group. The latter speaks to a lot of what went wrong for Boston’s starting pitching in 2025. Crochet was a beast. Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito (now a free agent) were solid. Rookies Connelly Early and Hunter Dobbins (since traded to St. Louis) contributed in their limited starts.

But of the nine pitchers who made at least five starts for the team, four posted a negative fWAR: Walker Buehler (-0.6 in 22 starts), Richard Fitts (-0.2 in 10 starts), Tanner Houck (-0.3 in nine starts) and Trade Deadline acquisition Dustin May (-0.1 in five starts). Buehler, Fitts and May are now gone, while Houck is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and will be back late in the 2026 season, at best.

4. They boast enviable depth
That top five of Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Bello and Oviedo is projected to soak up 83.7 percent of Boston’s starting innings in 2026. That would be nice if it happens, but things tend not to work that way over a 162-game season. Every MLB team used at least eight starters in 2025, led by the Braves, with 19. Two-thirds of teams used at least a dozen pitchers to start games.

The point is: Just about every team’s depth will be tested, and the Red Sox are in better position than most for that eventuality. Beyond that top five, the team has two proven Major League contributors returning from serious injuries -- righty Kutter Crawford and lefty Patrick Sandoval, neither of whom pitched last year. Lefties Early and Payton Tolle both showed promise in their brief MLB debuts a year ago and are ranked by MLB Pipeline as two of the top eight left-handed pitching prospects in baseball. Another lefty, Kyle Harrison, has seen his star fade since his time as a top Giants prospect, but he’s still only 24, with 37 big league starts under his belt and upside to offer.

Of course, that depth also gives Boston’s front office the option of using some of it in service of a trade that could land the team another big piece, perhaps a second baseman or third baseman. Even if that happens, Boston will have some protection, though. That’s one reason the forecast is bright for the team’s rotation.