How the Reds are built to overcome Greene's injury

GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- With Tuesday's development that arthroscopic right elbow surgery will keep starting pitcher Hunter Greene out until at least July, the playoff-aspiring Reds will have to figure out how to win without him.

If there is any good news to be had at all it's this: They've done it without Greene before and Cincinnati appears more prepared to weather the situation this season.

“It’s hard to replace Hunter. He’s the ace. He’s the No. 1 for a reason. The guy is extremely talented. He’s our superstar," said Andrew Abbott, who will be the Reds' Opening Day starter. "I think everybody knows what we have to do. I don’t think the mission or the message changes. I think it’s a little more emphasized."

Greene, 26, is having bone chips and loose bodies removed in a procedure scheduled for Wednesday in Los Angeles.

Here's why the Reds can still succeed without Greene during the first half of the season:

Just look back to 2025

The Reds ended a lengthy playoff drought by finishing 83-79 to clinch the final National League Wild Card berth on the last day of the regular season. Greene pitched in elite form the first portion of 2025 before a right groin strain in early May knocked him out for two weeks. He returned but re-injured the groin and went back on the IL June 4.

• Reds 8, Rockies 1

That second IL stint lasted 2 1/2 months. Greene still went 7-4 with a 2.76 ERA, but he set career lows with 19 starts, 132 strikeouts and 107 2/3 innings. Overall, the Reds had a better record without Greene than with him. They were 44-46 when he was on the active roster and 39-33 while he was out.

Still, Greene's latest absence was viewed as a serious blow and not downplayed.

“We will miss him, there’s no getting around that," manager Terry Francona said.

More rotation depth in 2026

The only Reds starter to get through last season without an IL stint was Brady Singer, who made a team-leading 32 starts. Filling in for Greene, Wade Miley tried to pitch with a surgically-repaired left shoulder and lasted three games. Trade Deadline acquisition Zack Littell finished the season with the club and prospect Chase Petty (No. 9) also was needed, but without success. The organization's top prospect at the time, Chase Burns, made his big league debut in his first pro season and proved electric.

Entering '26, Cincinnati appeared in a better position to overcome injuries.

"I think what’s in the room now, what depth we have, what guys we have in this clubhouse, we’re more than capable to hold down the fort and then produce and win and have some success while he’s gone," Abbott said.

Three young arms -- Rhett Lowder, Brandon Williamson and Julian Aguiar -- are available after all three missed the entirety of last season with injuries.

“The talent in the organization has risen and we’ve got more guys healthy," closer Emilio Pagán said. "Those are three very good pitchers pitching and throwing the ball well. So the depth is in a better spot to cover the time [Greene] is not going to be with us.

"Having said that, Hunter is probably our best arm. You’re not just going to replace a Hunter Greene. But if you can come in and get competitive innings from guys that are available -- and we will because they’re very talented pitchers -- it should theoretically put us in a better spot than we were the last couple of years when [Greene] was down.”

Lowder, Burns and Williamson are still competing for the final two spots in the rotation. Aguiar and Petty were recent spring cuts.

"Plus just the way we feel about our group. They’ll go compete," Francona said. "I haven’t seen anybody that’s remotely feeling sorry for themselves. We’ll be OK.”

All three contenders have mostly pitched well. Williamson delivered a crisp three scoreless innings vs. the Rockies on Tuesday.

“First off, it's horrible about missing Hunter," said Williamson, who missed 2025 recovering from '24 Tommy John surgery. "I know he’s a competitor. I want to play with him bad. I think he’s going to be a Cy Young [Award] guy for a long time. But it really doesn’t change for me. I haven’t played in so long. I just want to play.”

Pitchers returning from missing a whole season could also bring complications. But president of baseball operations Nick Krall said the club would not look to sign a starting pitcher from outside the organization.

“Not at this point," Krall said.

“It’s hard. It’s March 10," Francona added. "Whoever you bring in isn’t going to help you when you need it. Me and Nick were talking about it. Those guys rush and you love having guys here [in camp]. It’s pretty important.”

Offense and bullpen bolstered

While starting pitching and run prevention will be critical in the Reds' efforts to contend, scoring more runs consistently would certainly be a key to success. After struggling to do so in 2025, the Reds added a proven middle-of-the-order slugger by reuniting last month with free agent Eugenio Suárez on a one-year, $15 million contract.

Suárez, along with more consistency from core players like Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain -- plus a full season of rookie Sal Stewart -- could help to outscore opponents, even in high-scoring games.

In the bullpen, the Reds brought back a free agent in Pagán while signing relievers Pierce Johnson and lefty Caleb Ferguson and trading for another lefty in Brock Burke.

If there are no setbacks, Greene could be back on a big league mound for a second-half push to contribute.

“The overall depth of our team and organization has gotten better," said Pagán, who was re-signed to a two-year, $20 million contract. "When you look across the league, the best teams are the ones that have the most depth and can battle through injuries. Because everybody’s going to come across them. You just hope to be in a good spot when those do come up.”

“Our starting pitching is going to be a strength, even with Hunter out. It’ll be even stronger when Hunter does come back, hopefully sooner rather than later just because of how talented of an arm he is and how much he means to our team. Depth wins in this league and our depth has gotten better.”