How Reds can secure the final NL Wild Card spot
As we enter the final weekend of the regular season, the race for the final National League Wild Card berth is poised to go down to the wire. Three teams are still in the running. But only one can make it.
The Reds (81-78) remain in pursuit of that final spot, sitting one game behind the Mets (82-77). The D-backs are also alive at 80-79. Cincinnati has a series against the Brewers in Milwaukee on tap, while the Mets square off with the Marlins in Miami and the D-backs face the Padres in San Diego.
Working in Cincinnati’s favor? It owns the tiebreaker advantage in every possible scenario. The Reds had a better head-to-head record against both New York (4-2) and Arizona (4-2) in 2025, and they would also win a three-team tiebreaker by virtue of having the best combined record against the other two clubs.
Also in Cincinnati's favor is that the Brewers have a two-game edge over the Phillies -- plus the tiebreaker -- for the top seed in the NL. As such, they would secure the No. 1 spot with one win or a Phillies loss to the Twins.
That said, the Reds still need some help to clinch what would be their first full-season (excluding the shortened 2020 campaign) postseason berth since 2013. Whatever they do, they need the Mets to be one game worse. So if they sweep Milwaukee this weekend, which would make them 84-78, they’d need the Mets to go 2-1 or worse in their series against the Marlins. If they go 2-1 or worse, they’d need the Mets to go 1-2 or worse. If they only win one more game, they’d need the Mets to get swept AND the D-backs to go 2-1 or worse. (Cincinnati needs to win at least one game against Milwaukee to stay alive.)
In short, the Reds have multiple paths to the postseason, but they may require a favorable break or two to punch their ticket to October.