Revisiting our Rays preseason predictions

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

BALTIMORE -- It's not quite awards season in baseball, as most of the major hardware is handed out after the game’s most coveted prize is won during the World Series. But with the final week of the regular season underway, it is time to start thinking about end-of-season awards.

The Tampa Bay chapter of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America presented its three annual awards before Sunday night’s game at George M. Steinbrenner Field.

Junior Caminero took home the Don Zimmer MVP Award. Chandler Simpson and Jake Mangum shared the Rookie of the Year honor. And Drew Rasmussen earned the Paul C. Smith “Champion” Award, given to the player who exemplifies the spirit of true professionalism on and off the field.

Not a lot of tough decisions in that mix, especially with Simpson and Mangum splitting the rookie award. But it inspired some conversation about whether we saw any of them coming, which got us thinking about a preseason exercise from this March 25 newsletter.

At the time, we were tasked with predicting a Team MVP and Cy Young, followed by a “Bold Prediction.” Let’s revisit what we said then and correct the record with the benefit of hindsight.

Team MVP
What we said then: Brandon Lowe
The pick now: Junior Caminero

In my defense, this was the first sentence of my explanation when picking Lowe: “It would not be a surprise if Junior Caminero immediately becomes the Rays’ best player.”

The lesson: If you’re going to be wrong, be right at the same time.

Lowe is wrapping up an impressive season in his own right. He hit his 30th home run on Sunday night, his first 30-homer campaign since his incredible 2021 season. He’s only the third player in franchise history with multiple 30-homer seasons, joining Evan Longoria (four) and Carlos Peña (three). It’s no coincidence that this has also been Lowe’s healthiest season since 2021. This is what he does when he’s in the lineup regularly.

But with all due respect to Yandy Díaz, who is leading the team in OPS (.856) and batting .302 thanks to an absurdly hot finish, Caminero is the obvious choice here. He’s hit 44 homers and driven in 108 runs, putting him in position to challenge Peña’s single-season records on both fronts, and he has emerged as a legitimate star in his first full season.

There is still room for Caminero to grow, but the strides he made defensively this season show he is willing to put in the work. And have we mentioned he only just turned 22? Caminero’s first MVP nod surely won’t be his last.

Team Cy Young
What we said then: Shane McClanahan
The pick now: Drew Rasmussen

First, we obviously didn’t know the extent of McClanahan’s nerve issue at the time, much less that it would keep him from throwing a single pitch for the Rays. It was a lost season for Tampa Bay’s erstwhile ace, which couldn’t have been much more frustrating just as he seemed ready to return from his second Tommy John surgery.

But to once again claim victory in the face of defeat, I’d note this part of the preseason prediction: “Rasmussen might not pitch as many innings as his counterparts, but his production could be the best of the bunch.”

Well, that’s what happened. Rasmussen has had his innings limited, as the organization has been mindful of his long-term health after he rejoined the rotation following a third major elbow procedure. But his performance and run prevention have been, as usual, elite.

The All-Star right-hander will enter his final start with a 2.80 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 147 2/3 innings over 30 starts. He leads the team in Baseball Reference’s calculation of WAR with 4.3. Despite not qualifying for the ERA title, he ranks seventh among AL pitchers in bWAR.

Even if you remove the narrative context, what Rasmussen has done is impressive. But when you consider what he’s overcome to be this consistently excellent? It’s beyond worthy of recognition.

Bold Prediction
What we said then: “There will be postseason baseball at Steinbrenner Field.”
What we say now: There will not be postseason baseball at Steinbrenner Field.

Well, at least we know their postseason games would have been at Steinbrenner Field. So there’s that.

Turns out the preseason predictions were correct to say the Rays would be, as I wrote then, "outside the playoff picture, forecasting somewhere in the neighborhood of 82 wins.” That might have even been a little too kind, depending on how this week goes.

Unlike last season, their positive run differential leads to an “expected” record better than their actual mark. And it has felt different than last year because they’ve ridden a rollercoaster of streaks and slumps, compared to 2024’s monorail ride along the .500 track.

But the results and the record will be largely the same, and that was not their hope or expectation coming out of Spring Training.