Rox enter offseason facing Arenado's future

DENVER -- With third baseman Nolan Arenado going into his final year of club control, the Rockies face juicy Hot Stove options: Do they bestow upon Arenado the generational wealth of a multiyear contract? Or potentially lose him to another suitor after the season?
But there is a larger question: What does the 2018 season mean?
With solid starting pitching and an offense that had star power but battled inconsistency, the Rockies finished 162 games tied with the Dodgers for first place in the National League West. A loss to the Dodgers in the tiebreaker sent the Rockies to the NL Wild Card Game, where they beat the Cubs before bowing out vs. the Brewers in a three-game NL Division Series sweep.
The Rockies' Arenado situation is more analogous to the one the Nationals faced last winter with Bryce Harper than the Orioles' situation with Manny Machado. The Nationals, believed to be a World Series contender entering 2018, held on to Harper through a disappointing finish. The Orioles -- en route to 115 losses -- dealt Machado to the Dodgers as the non-waiver Trade Deadline approached.
The Nats could argue that their window to win is still open, even if they lose Harper and still need help with pitching, second base and catching. The Rockies can make the same point, maybe stronger.
No Rockies starting pitcher will reach free agency before 2021 (Chad Bettis). DJ LeMahieu and Carlos González became free agents this week, but after Arenado, the next big run-producer to potentially hit free agency would be Trevor Story in '22.

So, the question for the offseason: Are the Rockies better-positioned to chase a World Series title with Arenado or without? Even with him, the Rockies will need to add another proven hitter, either through free agency or a trade.
Colorado's history shows that dealing a productive offensive player can pay immediate dividends, but circumstances were different.
After a disappointing 2008, the Rockies traded Matt Holliday -- then a year from free agency -- to the Athletics in a deal that brought Gonzalez and Huston Street to Colorado. Gonzalez, after some Minor League time and a slow start in the Majors, eventually replaced Holliday's bat, and Street was the closer the Rockies needed. Colorado reached the postseason in '09, falling to the Phillies in the NLDS.
Back then the offense was potent enough to wait while Gonzalez developed, but the current club needs thunder even with Arenado. Also, the '09 Rockies didn't enter with nearly the expectations they will face in '19.

A look at another team -- and a familiar name at the same contract stage -- might be instructive.
After making the World Series in 2014 and winning it the next year, the Royals faded in September 2016 but still had many World Series parts in place, and they entered '17 with high expectations. Kansas City finished '16 with the Majors' 14th-highest payroll, according to Sportrac. Royals closer Wade Davis was entering his final year of club control.
The Royals dealt Davis to the Cubs for outfielder Jorge Soler -- under club control through 2021 -- thinking his offense would make up for Davis' absence. But injuries limited Soler to 35 games in '17, and the Royals couldn't replace Davis. Joakim Soria and Kelvin Herrera struggled as closers. Mike Minor converted six September saves, but Kansas City's postseason dreams fizzled.
Could the Royals have competed for another title with Davis? With the Cubs, Davis converted 32 of 33 save chances in 2017. This year, he set a Rockies record with 43 saves (despite a couple of crisis points) as he began a three-year, $52 million contract.
If the Rockies believe they are close, and believe in the pitching and the quality of controllable position players, any trade for Arenado would have to be a doozy. The deal would have to replace him -- in 2018 an NL-high 38 home runs, 110 RBIs, .935 OPS, plus outstanding defense -- and either bring back or facilitate the acquisition of at least one more run-producer.
Or Arenado could help drive the Rockies' title hopes -- for 2019 and maybe beyond.