How this hurler turned his season around

This story was excerpted from Thomas Harding’s Rockies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Rockies righty reliever Carlos Estévez was confident enough to be in on the joke that resulted from early outings. He is effective enough to laugh about it all now and raise a question:

Will Estévez's smile grace the Rockies' bullpen beyond this season?

Capable of 100 mph on his fastball and having posted a strikeout rate of 9.5 per nine innings through his first five Major League seasons, Estévez went his first nine outings without a strikeout.

"Honestly, I didn't even notice, then I was like, 'Oh, my,'" Estévez said, chuckling. "It was disappointing, but I was working on stuff like trying to throw strikes and get quick outs.

"Then I was like, 'I've got to strike out someone,' just joking around. And in one of those last outings, I'd go two strikes and I'd break a bat and they'd hit a ground ball to first, and I'm like, 'Oh my gosh, come on.'"

The first time Estévez struck out a hitter, at Arizona on May 6, he allowed three runs on homers by Daulton Varsho and David Peralta. But he eventually found his form.

His ERA sat at 6.32 ERA through his first 19 outings. In 31 outings since (going into Tuesday), he posted a 2.48 ERA. Strikeouts were down slightly, 27 in 29 innings, but that's partly the result of using a changeup for weak contact to go with his fastball-slider combo. He held opponents to a .196 batting average and walked just 11 -- close to the one in three innings that's ideal for a high-leverage pitcher.

"There have been some peaks and valleys with Carlos, but he's peaking in a lot of ways," Rockies manager Bud Black said. "It starts with strikes. It's so important for a relief pitcher to come in and be aggressive, and that's what Carlos has been doing.

"The changeup and slider have been more consistent, especially with the changeup. His best stuff has been in the strike zone. That's where it starts."

Forced into closer duty as a rookie in 2016 and having regained his fastball velocity after missing 2018 with oblique and elbow injuries, Estévez and the Rockies have been through the at-times-difficult development steps. But Estévez, earning $3.025 million after avoiding his final year of arbitration, is a free agent at season's end.

The Rockies started this season with Daniel Bard as closer, and Tyler Kinley, Alex Colomé and Estévez in primary righty setup roles. Lefty Lucas Gilbreath pitched himself into a high-leverage role. But that wasn’t enough depth, not without several lesser service-time relievers accelerating.

The thin crew became thinner. Kinley sustained a season-ending forearm flexor tendon injury after 25 mostly impressive outings, and Colomé was solid until a second-half slump and an arm injury that has him on the current injured list.

The Rockies expect to contend in future years, based on a farm system that ranks ninth in the Majors according to MLB Pipeline -- the team’s highest ranking since 2017, the first of two postseason trips. The bulk of the talent will not be ready for 2023, however.

The Rockies have outfielder Kris Bryant on a seven-year deal that began this season, contracts beyond next year for third baseman Ryan McMahon and starting pitchers Germán Márquez, Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela (who should return from his left ACL injury early next season), and Bard beginning a new two-year agreement. There is no sign of a purge, so the only strategy that makes sense is increasing the talent level of the current big league squad through trades and free agency.

In that vein, retaining Estévez, who turns 30 on Dec. 28, makes sense. The goal needs to be exceeding this year’s quotient of experienced and talented pitchers, plus counting on lower service-time relievers to progress.

Estévez received interest from other teams near the Trade Deadline, but nothing happened -- mainly because contending clubs concentrated on relievers that were either already closers or had club control beyond this season. In free agency, Estévez could be swayed by a ninth-inning offer from another team.

"What reliever doesn't want to be a closer at some point? They might be lying if they tell you no," he said.

But if the opportunity and the money are right, Estévez said he would be happy with the organization he has been with since he signed as an amateur in 2011.

"If we've got Bard closing and I get to come back and pitch in leverage innings, we'll be fine," Estévez said. "It depends on the business side, but let's see what baseball comes with."