New name at top of Rookie Power Rankings

A new king sits atop the Rookie Power Rankings throne.

Reds second baseman Jonathan India climbs to the top spot in MLB Pipeline’s Rookie Power Rankings this week. He unseats Marlins left-hander Trevor Rogers, who had sat at No. 1 for six straight editions of the RPR dating back to June 2 but is still rehabbing in the Minor Leagues after dealing with family medical issues back home. Over in the American League, Astros pitcher Luis Garcia claims his highest RPR ranking of the season and will need to hold off outfielders Randy Arozarena (Rays) and Adolis García (Rangers) for the junior circuit’s rookie prize the rest of the way.

The RPR is voted on by MLB Pipeline staff and reflects who we believe will win Rookie of the Year awards by season’s end, combining both 2021 performance and some projection for the remainder of the campaign. Given that the RPR runs every two weeks, only two editions of the rankings remain this season.

1. Jonathan India, 2B, Reds
Previous RPR: 2

India keeps finding ways to show why he’s an above-average offensive player in the Majors. Prior to August, he was walking at impressive levels and posting high on-base percentages. He’s been more aggressive this month and is showing off more power with six homers and .560 slugging percentage through 22 games, both season bests for a single month. He leads all rookies with a 3.3 fWAR, 129 wRC+ and .388 OBP and ranks third with an .848 OPS (minimum 250 plate appearances). There’s a reason why Cincinnati put India into the leadoff spot in early June and hasn’t looked back since.

2. Luis Garcia, RHP, Astros
Previous RPR: 3

Garcia’s gem against the Royals on Tuesday (6 2/3 IP, 0 R, 7 K) isn’t the only reason why he moved up here, but it sure didn’t hurt. The 24-year-old right-hander has been as reliable as they come for the AL West leaders, especially of late. He owns a 1.99 ERA with 23 strikeouts and five walks over his last four starts (22 2/3 innings). Garcia leads all rookies with 144 K’s in 123 1/3 innings (10 more than Tarik Skubal in second) and has backed that up with a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the entire season.

3. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Marlins
Previous RPR: 1

Rogers has made only one Major League start since July 20, at first due to lower back spasms and now due to his noble decision to head home to help family deal with COVID-related issues. He made a rehab appearance for Low-A Jupiter on Tuesday, lasting 3 1/3 innings while throwing 55 pitches. The Marlins want him to work back to full strength before giving him another shot at the Majors. The fact he still slots into the No. 3 spot speaks to how much of a lead he had in previous RPRs. Rogers still claims a 2.45 ERA, 129 strikeouts and a 3.3 fWAR (still best among rookie pitchers) in 110 innings this season. He’ll be welcome back with open arms when he does return to the Miami rotation.

4. Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays
Previous RPR: 3 (tied)

The preseason AL Rookie of the Year favorite is in the midst of easily his best offensive month yet of 2021. Arozarena is hitting .396/.484/.642 with eight extra-base hits in 15 August games to this point. He owns a 1.125 OPS in that period after failing to post an OPS above .800 in any of the preceding four months. He owns a .275/.354/.455 line on the season to go with 16 homers and 11 steals in 111 games, and his 127 wRC+ is not that far off India’s mark at the top of the list. If he can carry this into September, he would give himself a great shot at passing Garcia among AL rookies on this list.

5. Adolis García, OF, Rangers
Previous RPR: 5

García continues to mix power and defense to make himself one of the highlights of a rough season down in Arlington. His 27 homers continue to lead all rookies this season, and his .482 slugging percentage ranks fifth (minimum 250 plate appearances). He is also tied for seventh among all Major League center fielders with seven Outs Above Average, thanks to his good jumps and impressive speed. The rest of his offensive profile drags down his ROY chances -- his season OBP has dropped below .300 this month -- but the 28-year-old is showing just enough loud tools to keep him prominently in the race.

6. Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals
Previous RPR: 8 (tied)

The switch-hitting outfielder was out from Aug. 13-23 with a sprained right wrist but came back to go 1-for-3 with a double Tuesday. That return was promising because Carlson looked very much like he was clicking offensively prior to the injury. Through 11 games in August, he owns a .357/.417/.524 line with five extra-base hits and two stolen bases. Power continues to be the biggest offensive issue for Carlson in 2021, but he’s still hitting .261/.342/.420 with 12 homers and an above-average 109 wRC+ through 113 games. These recent improvements only help his chances to get down-ballot NL Rookie of the Year votes come October.

T7. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Indians
Previous RPR: 7

Yes, the deck is stacked against Clase as a reliever competing against starting pitchers and everyday players for an end-of-year award. But he continues to tick all the boxes needed to get some ROY consideration. Clase leads all rookies with 18 saves and places seventh among all AL relievers in the category. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last 15 appearances, dating back to July 17, and has struck out 16 and allowed only six hits and one walk in 15 1/3 innings over that span. He has a 1.55 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 57 strikeouts in 52 1/3 innings on the season as a whole. Throwing a cutter that averages 100.1 mph sure helps.

T7. Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF, Orioles
Previous RPR: 8 (tied)

Mountcastle was already looking like a good hitter in the Majors, but he’s taken matters to a new level in August with a .372/.391/.884 line and six homers in 12 games this month. Those numbers could have been even greater had he not missed 10 days due to a concussion. His 23 homers place him second among all rookies as do his 195 total bases. There’s a fighting chance the Baltimore slugger could track down García in both categories over the remaining five weeks and give the AL ROY race even more intrigue.

9. Patrick Wisdom, 3B, Cubs
Previous RPR: unranked

Unlike some others on this list, Wisdom has actually struggled a bit with the bat in August, but since time is almost running out and the balance of performance vs. projection is tipping heavily toward the former, the 29-year-old deserves a spot in the RPR. Along with García and Mountcastle, he is one of only three rookies with 20 homers in 2021, having hit exactly that many over 78 games with Chicago. His .538 slugging percentage is tops among all rookies while his 125 wRC+ places fourth. It’s possible pitchers are beginning to figure out the right-handed slugger since he’s hitting just .211 with a .662 OPS and 32 strikeouts in 20 games this month, but his impressive previous performances from the summer will still earn him some ROY consideration no matter what follows.

10. Tyler Stephenson, C, Reds
Previous RPR: unranked

The only thing holding Stephenson off previous RPR editions was his lack of consistent playing time. He’s still basically splitting duties with Tucker Barnhart behind the plate in Cincinnati, but his hitting performance has been too good to keep him off the list as the season winds down. Stephenson owns a .289/.374/.452 line with nine homers over 313 plate appearances. He’s been pushing for even more playing time of late with four of those homers coming over 11 games in August alone. His 1.026 OPS this month is his highest of any yet in 2021. Barnhart is the better defensive catcher, but Stephenson’s bat will earn him a prominent role in the Reds’ chase for an NL Wild Card spot.

Also receiving votes: Shane McClanahan, LHP, Rays; David Bednar, RHP, Pirates; Garrett Whitlock, RHP, Red Sox

Honorable mentions: Ian Anderson, RHP, Braves; Casey Mize, RHP, Tigers; Akil Baddoo, OF, Tigers; Andrew Vaughn, OF, White Sox; Wander Franco, SS, Rays