Why Ryan Clifford might be the Mets' first baseman of the future
This browser does not support the video element.
For the second straight offseason, the Mets face the prospect of losing their star first baseman, as Pete Alonso heads back to free agency.
Alonso has been a staple in Queens since winning the 2019 NL Rookie of the Year Award, totaling 264 homers while missing just 24 games across seven seasons. That kind of production is not easy to replace, especially on the open market.
And while there's still a chance that "Polar Bear" returns to Citi Field -- our experts give it a coin-flip chance -- the Mets may already have their first baseman of the future in the form of a homegrown prospect: Ryan Clifford.
Acquired in August 2023 as a key part of the return for Justin Verlander, Clifford has some of the best left-handed power in the Minors. Since signing for second-round money ($1,131,530) as an Astros 2022 11th-rounder, he's produced elite exit velocities with roundtrippers to match. The club's No. 8 prospect ranked sixth in the Minors this season with 29 homers, and he's the youngest player to go deep at least 70 times in the Minor Leagues since 2023.
Clifford isn't big-league ready yet -- at 22, he's only played 34 games at Triple-A and posted a 103 wRC+ for Syracuse, but he should be in The Show before long and ready to contribute in the heart of the Mets' lineup.
What makes him stand out as a prospect?
Clifford's power is undoubtedly his calling card. He's well-built at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds and has the uphill bat path to maximize his natural power that plays to all fields.
During his brief time at Syracuse, the North Carolina native posted a 90th percentile exit velocity of 107.4 mph, a figure only Alonso, Francisco Alvarez and Juan Soto surpassed among Mets players last year. His 53.1 percent hard-hit rate ranked 17th out of 549 Triple-A hitters with at least 100 plate appearances despite being one of the youngest hitters at the level.
Clifford is also quite selective at the plate and not apt to chase (22 percent in 2025), enabling him to run a high walk rate (14.7 percent). At minimum, he should contribute on offense as a three-true-outcomes hitter.
The former Vanderbilt commit currently plays a mix of left and right field in addition to first base, and while he has the arm for right field, his below-average speed makes him a better long-term fit at first. He's also made tremendous strides defensively on the infield dirt, to the point that he could become a plus defender there.
What are the biggest obstacles to reaching his ceiling?
While Clifford has plenty of pop, he doesn't project to hit much for average. There's plenty of swing and miss in his game, although the good news is he's improving on that front.
The slugger whiffed on a concerning 25 percent of swings on pitches in the zone in 2024, including 28 percent on fastballs. To put that in context, only 14 qualified Major Leaguers had an in-zone contact rate below 75 percent last year, nearly all of whom made up for it with elite power or defense. But with an improved and more aggressive approach, Clifford has cut those numbers to a more manageable 17 percent for both figures in 2025.
There's also a question of how he'll hold up against fellow lefties. In 2024, he actually hit better against southpaws (.290/.424/.449) than he did against righties (.216/.363/.415), although he returned to a more traditional split in 2025 (.204/.273/.381 vs. LHP, .247/.379/.497 vs. RHP). Hitting passably against lefties could be the difference between him being on the strong side of a platoon and being an everyday, middle-of-the-order hitter.
Who is a reasonable comp at the MLB level?
There's good reason to be excited about Clifford's offensive potential, even if he no longer ranks in MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list after maintaining a spot throughout 2024. He does come in at No. 8 on the first-base prospect list.
Player comps can be a tricky thing since no two players are alike, but perhaps some middle-of-the-road outcomes for Clifford are players like Adam Lind and Brandon Moss. Peaking as a 3-WAR player with 30-something homer power from the left side and the ability to play an outfield corner in a pinch, although Clifford has a leaner frame than that duo.
If we're really dreaming here, there are some similarities between Clifford and another former Vandy recruit, Matt Olson. With continued improvement defensively at first and further reduction of in-zone whiffs, you're talking about an athletic first baseman able to consistently tap into near-top-of-the-line power.
When should we expect to see him in the Majors?
Clifford has earned mid-season promotions each of the past three seasons and could be in line to make his big league debut before his 23rd birthday on July 20. The Mets don't need to add him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft until December 2026, but he seems likely to force his way to the Majors before then.
Still, his timeline to the Majors may also just come down to opportunity. The Mets already have All-Stars in both corner outfield spots (Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo) and may still return Alonso. Mark Vientos was one of the club's top hitters in 2024 and is a bounce-back candidate at DH and first.
Clifford didn't have a problem catching up to big-time velocity in his brief stint at Triple-A, so if that continues to hold up over a larger sample size, and should playing time open up with an injury, Clifford will be one of the top candidates to fill in and provide needed left-handed power to New York's lineup.