Stewart a lock for NL Rookie of the Year? The numbers back it up

With September baseball still left to play, Sal Stewart has suddenly run away with the National League Rookie of the Year Award.

The 22-year-old first baseman reached historic marks during a scorching hot series at Wrigley Field last weekend, and with the unfortunate news that Cardinals rookie JJ Wetherholt will miss time with right wrist tendinitis, Stewart finds himself in the lead for the recognition.

Wetherholt’s injury had nothing to do with it, either, but instead it was the most impressive month by Stewart yet that pushed him to the top. In 29 August games, he hit .304 with eight homers, 21 runs scored and 35 hits to go along with a .879 OPS -- all season-high marks in a single month this year.

That, compared to Wetherholt’s .200 average and .595 OPS in August, and despite his excellent defensive numbers, has been enough for Stewart to get his well-deserved praise among the very best in a season dominated by not only the top two NL ROTY contenders, but the AL’s Kevin McGonigle, Parker Messick and Munetaka Murakami.

Entering Thursday, Stewart’s 31 homers, 105 RBIs, 143 hits and 140 games played leads all rookies. His 105 RBIs also lead the Major Leagues, giving Stewart the chance to join Ted Williams (1939) and Walt Dropo (1950) as the only rookies in MLB history to finish the season atop MLB’s RBI leaderboard.

Stewart’s already made plenty of history, though. He’s the only Reds rookie to put together a 30+ homer, 100+ RBI season and just the second to hit 30 or more homers in a season, joining Hall of Famer Frank Robinson (38 in 1956). His 105 RBIs are almost the most by a rookie in franchise history after he passed Jim Greengrass (100 in 1953) on Friday.

Of the last nine rookies to hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs since the Rookie of the Year Award began in 1947 -- Dropo (1950), Ron Kittle (1983), Jose Canseco (1986), Mark McGwire (1987), Mike Piazza (1993), Albert Pujols (2001), José Abreu (2014), Aaron Judge (2017) and Pete Alonso (2019) -- every single one took home the hardware.

“It’s remarkable," said closer Emilio Pagán on Friday about Stewart. "If I had a vote, he’s Rookie of the Year. Obviously, I’m biased. And he’s getting stronger down the stretch, which is really hard for young players to do. You see it every year. A rookie will hit a proverbial wall in August or September, [but] his at-bats seem to be getting better.”

That’s another important factor going for Stewart -- availability. The rookie has played in every single game. So that begs that question, just how much can Stewart continue to improve his numbers?

Is a 40-homer season on the table with another red-hot stretch? Only three players have ever reached that mark in their rookie season -- Alonso (53), Judge (52) and McGwire (49). If he matches his August homer total he can tie Cody Bellinger (39 in 2017) for the fourth-most by a rookie in a single season. He’s just seven away from tying Robinson for the most by a rookie in Reds history, a number he’s hit three times in the five full months so far this season.

What about RBIs? How far up the record books can Stewart climb? Well, he’s driven in at least 21 runs over the past three months, meaning 126 or more is not off the table, which would be the sixth-most by a rookie in MLB history. Even hitting 120 would be a special feat -- only seven rookies have hit that mark since RBIs became an official stat in 1920. And only Pujols (130) has hit that mark since 2000.

While the Reds will have a tough time getting back into the NL Wild Card race, Stewart’s pursuit of a legendary rookie season could be in reach at season’s end. Right now, it’s hard to envision Stewart not claiming Cincinnati’s first Rookie of the Year Award since Jonathan India in 2021, and instead wondering -- just how much can he win it by?

Passing future Hall of Famers on those all-time rookie lists will help secure it, but that’s not what Stewart is worried about.

“I don’t want to keep talking about it," Stewart said on Friday regarding the Rookie of the Year Award race. "There’s a lot of great players. I’ve said it once and I’ll continue to say it -- I’m proud of all of their seasons and I’m happy for them. Do I want to win it? Yes. But I don’t want to keep bringing it back up. I want to focus on winning games. It’s not fair to these guys right here, who’ve played a lot of games.”