Lugo wraps up disappointing season, but Royals have pieces for '27 run

KANSAS CITY -- It was a season to forget for Seth Lugo, who wrapped up his 2026 campaign by allowing four runs in 3 1/3 innings in the Royals’ 5-4 win over the White Sox on Wednesday night at Kauffman Stadium.

Kansas City’s offense, led by Maikel Garcia and Carter Jensen, and the bullpen, most notably Lucas Erceg’s scoreless eighth, backed the 36-year-old starter to grab a victory, but Lugo’s struggles bookended what has been a troubling stretch for a central piece of the Royals’ 2027 rotation.

Lugo finished the season with a 5.17 ERA, the worst qualified mark in the Major Leagues. Arizona’s Merrill Kelly (4.94) was the only other qualified pitcher to have an ERA above 4.61.

It’s a concerning trend for multiple reasons -- it wasn’t just a rough month or two. After posting a 2.68 ERA across seven starts to begin the season, Lugo delivered a 6.01 mark across the final 25 starts (128 2/3 innings) to wrap up his third season in Kansas City.

“Frustration,” Lugo said of his season. “I think a lot of guys here are frustrated. Obviously didn’t make the playoffs. … But at the same time, stayed healthy and made every start this year. That’s something to be proud of and something to carry into the offseason.”

Lugo’s reliability was a positive, with the Royals losing Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek and Luinder Avila to major injuries, but the veteran’s struggles were concerning. This season, Lugo was uncharacteristically out of the zone early in counts, couldn’t effectively use his fastball (-11 run value) and was unable to get batters to chase his stuff out of the zone (25.6% chase rate, 4th worst percentile). That led to opponents building up Lugo’s pitch count, identifying which pitches to swing at and doing damage with them, like his 33-pitch, four-run third inning Wednesday night.

The Royals had a lot of confidence in Lugo after signing him to a two-year extension, which began this year, worth $46 million guaranteed ahead of last season’s Trade Deadline. At the time, Lugo had a 2.95 ERA over 113 innings following his Cy Young Award runner-up finish in 2024. However, he pitched to an 8.35 ERA across 32 1/3 innings before his season ended with an IL placement on Sept. 4.

Lugo has an option worth another $20 million in 2028 that will become guaranteed if he tosses 162 2/3 innings next season. Meaning, the Royals may have two more seasons with Lugo at or near the top of the team’s payroll. Kansas City will need Lugo to return to form, or spend to build up its injury-depleted rotation, to get back into contention in 2027.

“Because he’s done it before,” manager Matt Quatraro said of his confidence that Lugo can rebound next year. “He’s a guy that believes in himself, and he will spend a lot of time figuring out how to fix this. Not that he hasn’t already, but he’s got the weapons. He’s going to execute more.”

There were a number of positives for next season that flashed Wednesday, though. Garcia’s three-hit, three-RBI game was his best performance since returning from the injured list with a left Grade 1-plus hamstring strain. It was a rare night with Jensen, Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., Jac Caglianone, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez -- fixtures for 2027 -- all in the lineup. All six recorded a hit.

But by far the biggest development was Erceg’s scoreless eighth inning. It was the first high-leverage spot for the former Royals closer since his demotion to Triple-A Omaha earlier this season for performance issues. After working on his mentality, mechanics and plan on the mound, Erceg needed just nine pitches to keep Kansas City’s one-run lead. He also hit triple digits for the first time since the 2024 ALDS.

With a bullpen that has a 5.02 ERA (29th in MLB), this could be one of the clearest ways to fix a group that is expected to go through a major overhaul this offseason as the Royals look to get back to playing meaningful games next September.

“I was pretty ashamed of myself, pretty embarrassed, to put myself in the position that I did this year,” Erceg said. “I worked hard while I was down there, so to see the surface-level results play in my favor a little bit more, and see that [velocity] creep back up, is nice to see.”