Imanaga may be Cubs' best option for G5 start -- but there are others

CHICAGO -- What’s the path to 27 outs?

A trend throughout this postseason for Cubs manager Craig Counsell has been waiting until necessary to reveal his pick for the next game’s starter. That didn’t change during Friday afternoon’s Zoom, which offered no answer as to who will toe the rubber first on Saturday night in the National League Division Series winner-take-all Game 5 against the Brewers.

“I think this is a game where we're going to have everybody available, maybe with the exception of [Matthew] Boyd,” Counsell said. “Everyone is going to be available. It's cliche here, but I'm going to tell you, we've got 11 pitchers to figure out how to get 27 outs. That's how we're treating it.

“We're certainly going to need the bullpen formula that we've used. We're going to have to get half the outs from not those five guys, right? And that's how we're looking at it, and that's what we're going to have to get.”

Here are the options in play for the Cubs:

1. Trust lefty Shota Imanaga with the start
Maybe the best solution is not to overthink things.

Imanaga was the Cubs’ Opening Day starter this year after his sensational rookie campaign a year ago that included being named an All-Star, starting a combined no-hitter and garnering down-ballot votes for both the Cy Young Award and Rookie of the Year. He thinks about the game analytically, searches for adjustments and embraces being a showman on the hill.

Imanaga has also been giving up a lot of home runs lately, something that may factor into the starting-pitching decision.

Imanaga logged a 3.73 ERA overall this season, but surrendered 31 home runs in 144 2/3 innings. That was a jump over last year, when he allowed 27 in 173 1/3 frames. In his last six turns in the regular season, Imanaga yielded 12 homers in 34 2/3 innings. He gave up a crucial homer in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Padres, and then allowed two more in a short outing (2 2/3 innings) in Game 2 of the NLDS in Milwaukee, meaning Imanaga would be on normal rest for Saturday.

Imanaga is not a high-velocity arm (his average fastball velocity of 90.8 mph is in the 8th percentile, per Statcast) and relies on command (4.6% walk rate) and deception with an elite splitter in a six-pitch arsenal. He is prone to homers, but can limit damage if there is little traffic via hits and walks. That last component has been a struggle recently.

“He’s been great all year,” Cubs catcher Carson Kelly said. “He continues to make adjustments and we’re working behind the scenes to find ways to get a little creative, but the moment’s on the line, he makes big pitches. I have all the confidence in the world in him.”

2. Go with an opener
The blueprint for this approach can be found in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Padres. The Cubs used veteran reliever Andrew Kittredge for the first inning, but that was due to wanting to limit Imanaga’s exposure to Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado.

Imanaga came out of the bullpen and turned in four decent innings, but a two-run homer to Machado in the fifth proved to be a big blow in a 3-0 loss. That said, this was a way to have Imanaga turn in a bulk outing without seeing the top of a lineup as often as in a standard start.

If the Cubs took this approach, there are plenty of ways to go about it. Counsell could pull from his group of high-leverage arms (Daniel Palencia, Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar and Kittredge), or look to one of the other relievers on the roster (Colin Rea, Aaron Civale, Michael Soroka and Ben Brown).

Counsell could also go into Game 5 with a plan to pull Imanaga at the first sign of trouble. When Boyd lasted only two outs in the first inning in Game 1, for example, Soroka finished the opening frame and then Civale was the bulk (4 1/3 innings) arm. Like Civale, Rea saved the bullpen by providing 3 1/3 scoreless frames in Game 2 after Imanaga’s short start.

Of course, Games 1-2 are much different than a win-or-go-home Game 5 situation.

After Boyd (67 pitches), no reliever threw more than 15 pitches in Thursday’s Game 4 win. Only Palencia, who has been used as a mid-game fireman, went more than one inning.

Counsell leaned heavily -- though within reason -- on his high-leverage arms at Wrigley Field, with Palencia (2 1/3, 25 pitches), Pomeranz (2 IP, 30 pitches), Keller (2 1/3 IP, 34 pitches) and Thielbar (1 2/3 IP, 21 pitches) all appearing in Games 3-4.

Friday’s off-day will help that quartet regroup.

“The final game of a playoff series is usually kind of all hands on deck,” Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner said. “I don’t know what our plans are at this point, but our depth in both starting and our bullpen has just been so impressive throughout this year. However they choose to get 27 outs, I have a lot of confidence in our group.”

3. Bring back Cade Horton
To be clear, this didn’t feel like a realistic solution, but it was going to be on the collective minds of Cubs fans in the leadup to Game 5. Counsell quickly shot down this idea during his Zoom.

Horton, who is eligible to come off the 15-day injured list on Saturday, has not pitched since Sept. 23 due to sustaining a right rib fracture. He got back on a mound for the first time on Tuesday, but it was a light 15-pitch session. Horton followed that with an up-down bullpen session on Friday.

“Everything went really well,” Counsell said. “It was really a positive day. Obviously, how he feels kind of post and how he feels tomorrow are really important. But the actual throwing session went very well.”

The NL Championship Series will begin on Monday night, so if the Cubs advance to face the defending World Series champion Dodgers, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Horton (1.03 second-half ERA) could make that roster in a best-of-seven series.