Strider making timely return to rotation firing on all cylinders

This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

BOSTON -- A few weeks ago it felt like the Braves had multiple holes within their rotation. That feeling certainly didn’t exist on Friday, when Bryce Elder was optioned, despite having posted a 3.10 ERA over his past five starts.

“He got it and handled it like a pro,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “Those conversations are never fun, even though they know what’s going on, knowing somebody has to go with Spencer [Strider] coming back.”

The Braves weren’t going to option AJ Smith-Shawver, who has a 1.08 ERA over his past four starts, and they couldn’t option Grant Holmes because he is out of options. Could they have moved Holmes to the bullpen? Sure. But why would you do that when he has pitched into the sixth inning in seven straight starts?

There was also the option of having Strider make a rehab start before being activated from the injured list to start Tuesday at Nationals Park. But the Braves saw enough during Wednesday's sim game to believe he is ready to make what will be just his second start in more than a year.

The Braves are in a good spot as they prepare to add Strider’s potential excellence to a rotation that has posted an incredible 1.97 ERA over 15 games going back to May 4. Atlanta ranks third in starters’ ERA (2.70) and first in starters’ innings (103 1/3) this month.

This has been quite a turnaround. As the second half of April unraveled, Chris Sale was struggling and Strider was heading toward his second stint on the injured list. Spencer Schwellenbach was nearing what amounted to a speed bump and Smith-Shawver was aiming to get back to the Majors.

But ...

Sale has a 1.72 ERA over the five starts he has made going back to April 25. The 40 strikeouts he has tallied during this stretch ranks second only to Detroit’s Tarik Skubal. Sound familiar? Yeah, the Braves lefty is pitching like he did last year, when Skubal’s strikeout total was the only thing that separated Sale from being the first pitcher to win MLB’s Triple Crown during a 162-game season since Johan Santana in 2006.

Smith-Shawver has allowed three earned runs over the 25 innings he has totaled in the four starts he has made since returning from Triple-A. Opponents have hit just .141. This ranks first among MLB pitchers who have completed at least 20 innings since April 29.

Schwellenbach posted a 7.17 ERA and allowed opponents to produce a .903 OPS during a four-start stretch from April 15-May 3. But he has further enhanced excitement about his potential by quickly bouncing back from the first rough patch of his young career. He has allowed just six earned runs and 14 hits over his past three starts (20 innings), winning his previous two decisions. He surrendered a Rafael Devers grand slam in the third inning on Sunday and didn’t allow any other runs during his seven-inning effort.

Now, the Braves will patiently wait to see how long it takes for Strider to find a groove and possibly reintroduce himself to the dominant form he had in 2022 and ’23.

Strider’s four-seam fastball averaged 97.2 mph in 2023, his most recent healthy season. Just 0.3 percent (6-of-1,826) of the four-seamers he threw registered at 94 mph or lower.

So, yeah, there was reason to notice when he sat around 94 mph while throwing 65 pitches in Wednesday’s sim game. Was he holding back? Does he just need some time to build arm strength? Is this where he’s going to be until he further distances himself from last year’s elbow surgery?

We’ll find out over the next few weeks and months, as he takes advantage of the chance to strengthen what has already been one of the game’s top rotations.