Which college pitchers could be drafted in 1st round?

There are officially less than three months until the MLB Draft, which is set to take place on July 11-12 in Philadelphia, and while there appears to be a clear-cut favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in MLB's top Draft prospect Roch Cholowsky, the rest of the board remains a crapshoot.

Last week, on the MLB Pipeline Podcast, experts Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo took turns guessing what the Top 11 picks of the Draft could look like based on their personal intuition. The results of the exercise shocked even Callis himself, as it showed just how much the Draft landscape has changed since the start of the calendar year.

On this week's episode of the podcast, Callis and Mayo, with host Jason Ratliff, take a deep dive into the state of college pitching Draft prospects. The group discusses who the top college arm is right now, who No. 2 might be, players who have fallen/climbed most and a sneaky sleeper pick who may not be getting the attention his performance warrants.

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The clear No. 1
Jackson Flora, RHP, UCSB (No. 14 Draft prospect)

Mayo: Getting varying degrees of where he belongs. There are some people who don’t think he makes it out of the Top 5, some people see him more in that 6-10 range. But just from a pure talent standpoint, he’s got ridiculous arm strength. His stuff is really, really good. His last start was not as good, but he still missed a ton of bats and was successful over only five innings. So, he was less efficient than he has been, but overall, I think he’s jumped to the top of that college pitching list because of how good he’s been. He's got an 11.1 K-per-nine innings rate, only walked 2.8 per nine innings, his ERA is 0.63 on the year. So, all of that is really, really good and he has vaulted himself to the top of that list and the fact that he’s 6-foot-5, there could be more in the tank because he throws plenty hard, but even more consistent stuff to come and Santa Barbara just has a very good track record of churning out pitching prospects.

Callis: If the Draft were today, he’s clearly the best college pitcher and it’s not even close. It would be the third time in 12 Drafts that UCSB has had the first college pitcher. Dillon Tate in 2015 and Tyler Bremner went No. 2 last year, and I think Flora probably goes in the Top 5, but definitely in the Top 10 this year.

Who's No. 2 now?
Callis: Cade Townsend, RHP, Mississippi (No. 76)
Mayo: Logan Reddemann, RHP, UCLA

Callis: I think that if the Draft were today that Cade Townsend from Mississippi might be the second college pitcher taken. He missed a start with a shoulder issue, but the MRI was clean, he came back, his stuff has bounced back and he’s been as good as he was before. And he’s been really, really good all season. He’s got 2.02 ERA in eight starts for Mississippi. He's amassed 54 strikeouts and eight walks in 36 innings, which is pretty good. California high school kid, who I think we ranked a few years ago, on our 2024 list, played well at the combine and was a third-to-fifth rounder back then. But the stuff is really, really good, the fastball is 93-96 mph, it’s got high spin rates, it’s got carry, the curveball and slider can both be plus pitches. He’s got a changeup in there as well that has got its moments. He’s throwing more strikes which is something he did not do last year.

Mayo: Let’s start with Reddemann here, and obviously everyone is talking about him because of the start that he had against Rutgers. But, he's been good all spring. He’s always been a good strike thrower, good feel for pitching and the velocity has come. He’s added a lot of strength, especially in his lower half. He drives down the mound really well. He’s been clocked as high as 99. It’s been really impressive because he’s got five pitches. He was mostly fastball, slider, curve, but his changeup is really good. All of them are good, 51% miss-rate in that last start and for the year it’s been really really good, so that’s a big step forward. But, he has a 9.88 K/BB ratio. His delivery, it’s a little drop and drive and that adds to deception. I think he’s third in the country in K-minus-BB percentage. I’m sure when you strike out 18 it helps that. But, overall, he’s been really good, 79 strikeouts and eight walks in 53 2/3 innings so far. So, I was thinking comp round at first, but given the dearth of college pitching, and if he continues to be successful as the year goes on, so many eyes are on UCLA because of Roch Cholowsky and the other guys that are there, he’s going to be seen a lot and if he keeps performing I can't image that he's not a first-round pick.

Guys who have fallen
Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina (No. 9)
Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida (No. 13)

Callis: Last year, we had Kade Anderson, Liam Doyle and Jamie Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon and Gage Wood. It seemed like we had a ton of college arms to talk about. This year, the two guys we had ahead of Flora coming into the year -- Cameron Flukey has barely pitched because he’s got a stress fracture in his rib but he should be back in the near future, and then Liam Peterson, who had a reputation for good stuff but being inconsistent, and he has shown good stuff but been inconsistent this year. I still feel like those guys are going to go in the first round, but I think it’s more, maybe, the back half of the first round than as high as I thought they were going to go coming into the year.

Mayo: I think that’s right. But, I think that if a guy like Flukey comes back and throws well, given what people thought of him before the injury and it's not arm related, he could float back up. I don’t think he surpasses Jackson Flora, but he could be in that top half of the first round. In terms of everyone else, I don’t know, maybe Liam Peterson if he suddenly clicks. Just because the stuff is so good. But, he’s never really been that. It’s always been stuff over performance so I do wonder if he belongs more in the back half of the first round anyway.

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Guys on the climb
Callis: Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas (No. 38)
Mayo: Mason Edwards, LHP, USC (No. 88)

Callis: Hunter Dietz was a part of that loaded Calvary Christian rotation in 2023, and then we basically didn’t see him for two years in college because he had a stress fracture in his elbow that required surgery before his freshman season. He pitched twice that spring, then he had a setback with that elbow that sidelined him again. So, he pitched 1 2/3 innings in two years at Arkansas. Now, in fall practice, everyone was going nuts because he was 94-97 and hit 99. He had a curveball that looked like a plus-pitch, it just needed more consistency. He upgraded his cutter/slider. He’s a 6-foot-6 lefty. And, you know the control has been sporadic at times, but he’s shown four pitches that have looked really, really good. I've talked to some guys that think you can give him four 6’s across the board on his pitches, which is very very good. His ERA is 3.61, which isn’t the most glittery ERA, but 76 strikeouts and 17 walks in 47 1/3 innings. Townsend might be the second college pitcher taken right now, but I think Dietz is erasing the concern about the lack of track record and if he continues to show this stuff and stays healthy all season then he could climb boards too.

Mayo: Mason Edwards out of Southern Cal. He didn't have a great start the week before last and bounced back with a better start this past week. He was sharp last week, 57 percent miss rate, he doesn’t throw super hard, like 91-92, some scouts think there may be a little more in there as he continues to pitch. He does not have a huge track record, the walks have not always been great this year. But, the slider is just stupid, he’s got a curveball and an effective changeup, also. It was good to see him bounce back.

Sneaky sleeper
Ben Blair, RHP, Liberty

Mayo: Ben Blair from Liberty, who I think is probably more comp round to second round, but again, big college arms who perform do tend to move up lists. I think that he’s been up to 97, he pitches 94-95, it’s funky, herky-jerky, it’s an interesting combination of things so we’ll see if he continues. It’s not as big of a conference, it’s not as much of a spotlight, so it will be more uphill in terms of getting seen to land in that first round.