Rays of the Ninth: How the stats stack up

ST. PETERSBURG -- So, why is it that the Rays’ lineup has been at its best after the seventh inning this season? Nobody can quite explain Tampa Bay’s dominance late in games this season, but Yandy Díaz has a theory.

“I think we're the type of team -- we like to let the [opposing] team feel good about themselves being in the game,” Díaz said jokingly through interpreter Manny Navarro. “And then at the end, we capitalize on them.”

It’s as good a guess as any, but the facts speak for themselves: The Rays’ lineup has been dangerous in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings this season. Entering Tuesday’s game against the Orioles at Tropicana Field, the Rays led the Majors with 238 runs scored in the seventh inning or later, and they had allowed the second-fewest runs during that phase of the game.

All together, their plus-99 run differential following the sixth inning was by far the best in baseball entering Tuesday -- ahead of the Padres’ plus-77 and the Giants’ plus-43. The last team to finish the season with a run differential that high in the seventh inning or later was the 2009 Yankees, whose plus-125 mark was also the most by any team since 1974.

By comparison, the Rays entered Tuesday ranking 11th in the Majors with just a plus-21 run differential before the seventh inning. What changes after the sixth?

“Honestly, I couldn't tell you what it is, why it always seems to happen in the eighth or whatever the cause may be,” second baseman Brandon Lowe, who’s driven in 20 runs between the seventh and ninth this season, said last week. “But I'm not going to question it.”

Their ninth-inning numbers jump off the page, too. Tampa Bay has scored 70 runs and allowed only 21 in the ninth so far this season, a plus-49 run differential that clearly outpaces San Diego, which ranks second at plus-30. The last team to own a full-season run differential that high in the ninth inning was the 2007 Mets (plus-49), and the MLB record since 1974 is the 2003 Astros’ plus-50 mark.

Curiously, that late-inning success hasn’t followed the Rays into extras this season. They are 5-10 in extra-inning games, having been outscored by 12 runs in those 15 contests. But Tampa Bay's ability to stage late-inning rallies is better reflected in its Major League-leading 37 come-from-behind wins this season entering Tuesday.

“Wins are wins,” manager Kevin Cash said recently. “They show the ability to really put pressure on teams late in ballgames.”

Indeed, the Rays have been so-so against opposing starting pitchers, entering Tuesday ranked 13th in the Majors with 310 runs scored and a .703 OPS. But they’ve been excellent after getting into opponents’ bullpens, scoring 307 runs (most in the Majors) while posting a .781 OPS (tied with the Astros for first in MLB) against opposing relievers.

That actually runs counter to the league’s overall trend, as MLB teams this season entered Tuesday with a .731 OPS against starters and a .716 OPS against relievers.

Regardless of how they distribute their runs or how often they strike out, the Rays seem to be delivering on their preseason promise to field a formidable lineup. In Spring Training, Kevin Kiermaier said, “Don’t sleep on what we can do offensively as a unit.” So what they’re doing now doesn’t seem out of character to the veteran center fielder -- even if nobody can seem to explain it.

“We complement each other well. We feed off each other well. Especially late in the games -- don’t know what it is about that, but it’s fun to make all these comebacks and piece together great at-bats when we need it the most,” Kiermaier said last week. “I’m not surprised at all. I knew we were capable of this, and hopefully we can sustain all this, keep this confidence rolling for us for as long as possible and stay in a groove.”