What are the chances Skubal gets traded? Execs around baseball weigh in

Tarik Skubal's future in Detroit has been a hot topic for months, from the offseason trade buzz to his arbitration filing in January, followed by the February hearing in which the two-time Cy Young Award winner was awarded a record $32 million salary for 2026.

Skubal’s elbow surgery earlier this month threw a wrench into the situation, muddling the Tigers’ season on the field, his potential trade value and his upcoming free agency.

Detroit was 18-17 on the day the club announced Skubal would undergo surgery, but the Tigers have gone into a tailspin since then with a 3-17 record in their last 20 games entering Wednesday.

The left-hander appears to be making a speedy recovery from his May 6 surgery, throwing a 40-pitch simulated game on Tuesday as he works his way back from the injured list.

Skubal’s return could potentially come quicker than expected, but given the Tigers’ 22-34 record – one that has them facing a 10-game deficit in the American League Central and a five-game spread from the final AL Wild Card spot – the trade winds will continue to swirl between now and the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline unless Detroit is able to turn things around in the coming weeks.

“Any club who finds themselves out of the postseason picture while carrying a star player on an expiring contract has to consider moving that player at the Deadline,” a National League executive said. “That said, no one should count out Detroit yet. We’re only one-third of the way through the season; there’s a lot of baseball yet to be played.”

One AL executive believes “there’s a chance [the Tigers will trade Skubal this summer], but I don’t think it’s probable.”

“I always think there is a chance, but they would have to feel confident that they aren’t going to be able to go on a run,” the AL exec said. “And that the return would be significant enough to wave the proverbial white flag.”

While it’s way too early for any legitimate Skubal trade talk to take place, a number of rival executives believe that the Tigers will move the 29-year-old if they find themselves on the outskirts of the playoff race when the calendar turns to July.

“If they’re way back, I think they will trade him,” another AL executive said. “However, given the state of the AL, it seems like they’ll be within spitting distance of the Wild Card.”

“I would think they try to move him at the Deadline if they are this far out of contention,” an NL executive said. “They know they are not going to sign him, so you have to do what’s best for the organization.”

What could the Tigers expect in return for two months of one of baseball’s best pitchers? A lot of that may depend on how Skubal looks when he comes back; if he’s throwing like his old self, Detroit could bring back a nice haul for a player who most expect will be signing elsewhere next winter.

“I’m sure teams will be paying attention to his rehab starts,” an AL executive said.

Which teams could be logical landing spots for Skubal if he’s moved? The Dodgers are always an obvious candidate given their resources and the front office’s history of making big summer deals. The Braves have baseball’s best record despite a rotation that has dealt with numerous injuries this season. One AL executive who believes Skubal will be dealt tabbed the Brewers as a potential trade partner, as Milwaukee has made such deals in the past for Zack Greinke and CC Sabathia.

“They are sending him somewhere,” the exec said. “No doubt about it.”