Will Skubal get traded? Here are 7 possible destinations

Should the Tigers trade Tarik Skubal later this summer, he'd be the rarest type of difference maker available at the Deadline. The lefty became only the 12th pitcher to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards last season.

Skubal returned from an innovative nanoscope procedure on Saturday in Cleveland, and allowed three runs (two earned) over 4 2/3 innings with four strikeouts in Detroit's 3-1 loss. With him set to be a free agent this winter, and the Tigers sitting 13 games under .500, there is a lot of buzz around him being moved before the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline.

For a team looking to acquire Skubal, there is always some risk. No one wants to be the club that trades away a future franchise pillar for two months of a star player, especially if that season doesn’t end with a ring. However, any such decision must be weighed against the reality that a flag flying forever is priceless.

Said one AL general manager of a potential Skubal deal: "Someone will have to be irrational about the value they are willing to give up, but that’s every Trade Deadline. There’s no math at 6% or 8% [World Series chances] that makes the math that much better. Sometimes, you’re removing math and taking a big swing to do something special. I don’t think you can justify it with math, but I don’t think you always need to either."

Some club is likely to go for it if Skubal is on the market. Within that context, what archetype of clubs should be most interested in paying a premium? And who fits the description this summer?

Let's first consider the optimal archetypes:

The elite division leader

Since 2012, when MLB added a second Wild Card in each league -- and expanded to a third Wild Card in 2022 -- only three Wild Card teams have won a World Series (2014 Giants, 2019 Nationals and 2023 Rangers).

That's three out of 64 total Wild Cards, a 4.6% success rate.

The extra round, extra travel and extra pitcher usage all add up to create a heavy tax.

It's preferable to trade tomorrow for today when holding strong chances at securing a bye.

The "one ace away" juggernaut

Rostering an ace is always an advantage, but elite pitchers are even more important in the postseason, when they take on a greater share of innings due to the added off-days and urgency of October.

Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling combined for 34.6% of Arizona's regular-season innings in 2001, but a massive 58.2% of the club's postseason innings. Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Patrick Corbin shouldered 59% of the Nationals postseason innings in 2019 compared to 40% in the regular season.

"The simple answer is since he can throw a larger percentage of playoff innings than regular season, he’s probably better fit for the teams who are playoff locks," said one assistant GM.

Teams with a closing window

Either due to age, or impending free agents, a closing window of opportunity is an incentive to make a final push.

So what clubs fit into these archetypes?

1. Braves

The Braves fit into several of these buckets. They roster the second-oldest pitching staff (31.2 average weighted age). As electric as the 37-year-old Chris Sale is, he might not have another year like this. They also possess one of the oldest position-player groups.

Paring Skubal with Sale would be a bit reminiscent of the Diamondbacks adding Schilling to Johnson at the 2001 Deadline. And while Atlanta enjoys an eight-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East, they hold just a three-game lead over the Dodgers and Brewers for a bye.

The Braves are also one of four teams with double-digit World Series chances at FanGraphs (10.2%). Atlanta is in an All-In position. (MLB.com Braves reporter Mark Bowman recently did an analysis of the pros and cons of a Skubal deal.)

2. Dodgers

The Dodgers' contention window is not at risk of closing immediately, but they do roster the oldest position-player group in the Majors (30.6 weighted years), and some core players like the 33-year-old Mookie Betts (.196 average) are demonstrating decline.

There is also the incentive that is chasing history, as the Dodgers are attempting to be the first franchise to three-peat since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees.

To chase down that history, the Dodgers would ideally avoid the Wild Card round. Moreover, given Tyler Glasnow's and Blake Snell's injury issues, there are rotation questions. The Dodgers own by far FanGraphs' top World Series chances (23.6%).

3. Brewers

Yes, another NL team. The Braves, Dodgers and Brewers are the three strongest teams in the Majors in terms of wins -- and all reside in the top four in terms of expected wins and run differential. But they are also squaring off for two postseason byes. There's the incentive of winning this game of musical chairs.

In the case of the Brewers, they also have the motivation of being a small-market team with fewer resources to fall back on year after year, allowing them less margin for error. The iron is hot should they choose to strike it.

They are one of five clubs to have never won a World Series, and have made only one World Series appearance in club history (1982). A Skubal-Jacob Misiorowski combination at the top of their rotation could change that.

4. Yankees

The Yankees lead the AL in pitching fWAR and just returned Gerrit Cole to an excellent group, so they don't have a glaring need on paper. But, again, this is Skubal, the best lefty in the game.

The Yankees are tied for their second-longest title drought in franchise history. They are also one of the few clubs that figure to be able to meet Skubal's contract demands. The Yankees rank third in run differential in the Majors, too.

If we knew Aaron Judge was going to be 100% in October, one could push the Yankees up on this list. Even with the injury, New York is second in FanGraphs World Series-winning chances (14.3%).

5. Mariners

This might seem like a curious choice given the depth of their rotation, but, again, the Seattle University product simply moves the needle more than any other Deadline asset.

Moreover, the Mariners' rotation is all right-handed in a season in which left-handed hitters are posting their best wRC+ (108) since WWII, and greatest share of plate appearances in history. Seattle has a need for an impact lefty.

Seattle is the other team with double-digit WS chances at FanGraphs (10.7%), and another team to have never won a World Series.

6. Rays

Tampa is similar to the Brewers, an elite small-market operation that has yet to win a World Series title.

The Rays are a well-rounded team. They are above-average in terms of runs scored and wRC+, defensive runs saved in the field, and enjoy a top 10 ERA. They make life difficult for opponents even without many brand names. Skubal would change that and also help stave off the Yankees in the AL East. And while they typically don’t add high-salaried players on long-term deals, a half-season rental is not far-fetched.

7. Guardians

While intra-division trades are rare, which pushes the Guardians down the list, the Tigers would not have to worry about Skubal being a long-time division rival.

While the Guardians don't often trade much of tomorrow for today, their deal for Andrew Miller at the 2016 Trade Deadline helped advance them to Game 7 of the World Series, nearly ending what is now the longest active World Series drought in the sport.

The Guardians are in a playoff bye position in a wide-open American League.

Who ought to not make such an investment? Teams chasing a Wild Card and with little hope of avoiding a play-in round -- or teams with deep structural flaws.

For other contenders, the bet on adding a rental ace is often losing one but when it hits it's a decision that is remembered forever. Players like Skubal are rare and it's even rarer they are available at the Trade Deadline.