Which teams will rise -- or fall -- in the second half?

On Tuesday, the Athletics, Pirates and Red Sox became the first three teams to play their 81st games of the season. Every other club will reach that point by the end of the week. It’s a reminder that while we think of the All-Star break as the midpoint of the schedule, it actually happens much, much earlier than that.

Therefore, as we reach the actual halfway point this week, it’s a good time to ask: Who is going to rise or fall in the season’s second half? Let’s try to identify the five teams most likely to improve from this point forward -- and the five most likely to decline.

BETTER IN THE SECOND HALF

Braves (37-41)

After the Braves’ miserable start to the year -- it’s remarkable how long it can take to work off beginning 0-7 -- it feels like we’ve all been waiting for them to kick into gear and actually start playing like the Braves. It still hasn’t happened yet. After briefly getting back over the .500 mark, they endured a 4-15 stretch from May 20-June 10 before righting the ship again of late.

But these are still the Braves. Ronald Acuña Jr. has been one of the best hitters in baseball since making his season debut, Matt Olson is looking like Matt Olson from two years ago and Spencer Strider is starting to round into form as well. (Through Monday, they had outscored their opponents this year by 26 runs, better than two teams in Wild Card position: the Blue Jays and Mariners.) Chris Sale’s fractured left rib cage doesn’t help, but this is a team built to win now -- one that has in fact won rather consistently over the past eight years. Catching the Phillies and Mets in the National League East is unlikely, but discount Atlanta from a run at one of the Wild Card spots at your peril.

Mariners (41-37)

The surprising thing about the Mariners is that they’ve flipped what we usually expect from them: Their offense, thanks largely to the supersonic season Cal Raleigh is having, has been their strength; in addition to Raleigh, J.P. Crawford, Randy Arozarena and Jorge Polanco have been lineup stalwarts putting up some of the best seasons of their career.

It’s the rotation, specifically the back of it, typically the Mariners’ whole thing, that isn’t holding up its end of the bargain. But you can see that starting to change with George Kirby and Logan Gilbert both back in the fold after missing time with injury. If that rotation gets back in order and the offense stays at its level, this team is going to make a run. You know what would help? One of those monster Julio Rodríguez summers we’ve seen some of the past few years.

Orioles (34-45)

Now, you should know that I actually picked the Orioles to make the World Series this year, a prediction that is, uh, not looking great. I made the case for still believing in Baltimore more than a month ago, and while they didn’t turn things around immediately after that, I’d like to note that, entering Tuesday, they’re 18-10 since the second game of a doubleheader on May 24. If they can go 18-10 again over the next month-plus, with the way the American League is going, they’ll be right in the thick of the playoff chase.

Baltimore has started to get a little healthier -- though Adley Rutschman hitting the IL for the first time doesn’t help -- and some of those young hitters are slowly taking small steps forward. It might not be in time to save the Orioles’ season, and there’s always the possibility that they start selling off pieces a month from now, but the talent has always been here. Now that the nightmare start is over, it’s starting to show out.

Rangers (39-41)

The Rangers, clearly, should have a better record than they do. They’ve also outscored their opponents, something they’ve done despite injuries to Corey Seager and miserable starts from Adolis García and Marcus Semien. Those three have started to come along, as have some of the young players with high expectations, such as Josh Jung and Evan Carter.

The rotation is also rounding into shape, with Jacob deGrom healthy, Kumar Rocker showing progress and Nathan Eovaldi (right triceps fatigue) on track to be activated from the IL soon. The Rangers have the sort of thunderous talent that can get on a run. They’ve been a bit snake-bitten so far, but if that turns in the second half, look out.

Royals (38-41)

The Royals’ underlying stats have actually been worse than their record, and they’ve been prone to skids that last a week, or longer. But everything that made Kansas City a playoff team last year is still here: Excellent starting pitching, a solid bullpen, lots of team speed and, of course, Bobby Witt Jr.

But there’s growth potential here, too. Jac Caglianone has some of the best raw power in baseball, and you can already see him adjusting to the bigs; if he gets going, he’ll provide precisely what this team needs most. There’s also some low-hanging fruit here as we head toward the Trade Deadline, because it’s easier to find help in the outfield, where the Royals are weakest, than most other positions. You know what else wouldn’t hurt? Witt Jr. getting back to his 2024 form. He has been very good in ‘25, rather than transcendently great like he was in ‘24. A second-half surge from him would go a long way. He's certainly capable of it.

WORSE IN THE SECOND HALF

Blue Jays (42-36)

You know what’s strange about the Blue Jays so far this year? They’re not hitting a lot of homers. Entering Tuesday, Bo Bichette (11) was actually the team leader in homers, and they were 19th overall in the Majors. The Jays were supposed to be a team that hits the ball out of the ballpark, but, when you look at them, you can kind of see why many were wondering if, had they not extended Vladimir Guerrero Jr., they might consider a tear down.

The Blue Jays are pretty old, after all, and you wonder if there could be some second-half fade, particularly because, thanks to injuries, they are in some danger of running out of pitchers. The Rays aren’t going anywhere, the Orioles are coming along and the Red Sox have a lot to prove. Someone’s going to take a hit in this division. It may well be the Jays.

Cardinals (44-36)

Considering how idle their offseason was and how skeptical some of the fanbase has become in the past few years, the Cardinals’ first half has to be considered an unabashed success. It has been a pleasant mix of veterans stepping up (the still-here Nolan Arenado, a hanging-in-there starting rotation), younger players making the turn toward established contributors (Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson) and MLB newbies becoming key Cardinals for years to come (Masyn Winn, Victor Scott II).

But the Cardinals don’t quite look built to last. That rotation is barely holding together, neither Nolan Gorman nor Jordan Walker are playing like the centerpieces they were meant to be, and perhaps most important, this team is unlikely to make any moves to shore up deficiencies on the roster. This was always a year of transition for St. Louis, and a surprising first half isn’t going to change that. The target is still 2026 and onward: ‘25 is likely to be treated as the happy accident it sort of is.

Giants (44-35)

Obviously, it’s more difficult to predict a second-half fall now that they have Rafael Devers in the lineup, particularly when you consider that he may be playing first base (the team’s biggest hole) sooner rather than later. But it has to be said that the Giants have been overachieving a bit. Their starting rotation has been Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and a prayer (particularly given Justin Verlander’s struggles). And while their lineup has its usual better-than-you-think guys, such as Wilmer Flores and Heliot Ramos, their middle infield has struggled (second baseman Tyler Fitzgerald was just sent down to Triple-A), and catcher Patrick Bailey has paired his Gold Glove defense with a .531 OPS entering Tuesday.

The key to the Giants’ success has been their relief corps, which has been excellent (Randy Rodríguez, Tyler Rogers and Erik Miller have been downright absurd) but will surely suffer the same bullpen fluctuations every other team in baseball suffers at some point. The biggest worry: all those one-run games. The team is 19-15 so far in them, but that’s the sort of tightrope walking that it’s tough to get away with for a full season. Can they really keep pace with the Padres and the rest of the NL Wild Card teams?

Guardians (39-38)

There isn’t a metric out there that believes the Guardians should even be all that close to .500, let alone two games above it. Entering Tuesday, they’d been outscored by 23 runs, worse than everyone in their division other than the White Sox. Their Pythagorean record is six games under .500. Clay Davenport’s third-order win percentage thinks they’re an 11-games-under team. (It has them worse than the Pirates.)

The Guardians have kept their heads above water thanks to another MVP-caliber season from José Ramírez, a 4-1 record in extra-inning games entering Tuesday and some timely hitting (something Cleveland generally has been good at for years, it should be said). The Guardians have made a habit of defying expectations, but there isn’t an analytical measure that doesn’t think they are a stone that’s about to sink.

Tigers (50-30)

Now, now: We promise we are not Tigers haters. The Tigers have been one of the happiest stories of the 2025 season so far, and we are not here to rain on that parade. This looks like not just a playoff team but a potential No. 1 overall seed in the American League, particularly in a division that doesn’t seem nearly as strong as it did last year. We’re just saying: This is a team currently on a 100-win pace … and we’d pump the brakes on that a bit.

The offense has been fantastic, but you’ve got several players, from Gleyber Torres to Spencer Torkelson to (especially) Javier Báez, hitting at a level that recent history certainly would argue is unlikely to sustain itself the rest of the year. And that’s not mentioning all the young players who look like real candidates to hit the August wall (Colt Keith, Wenceel Pérez, even Torkelson). It’s nice that everyone in the rotation is in their 20s, but that is asking for trouble in the second half as well, and it’s worth noting that this Tigers version of Jack Flaherty is not exactly looking like last year’s version. Add in an unproven bullpen, and we can see this team taking a few steps back in the second half. The good news: They’ve worked up large enough of a margin in the first half that it likely won’t even matter.