5 Padres thoughts heading into critical set against MLB-best Brewers 

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SAN DIEGO -- In no particular order, here are five thoughts on the Padres ahead of a potential playoff preview against the Brewers this week. At least, that’s the optimistic way of looking at it.

1. I’m not judging Mize and Ray on their first outings

Yes, those games count in the standings. Yes, it would’ve helped an awful lot if the Padres won ‘em. But I thought manager Craig Stammen put it best on Friday night:

"You're looking at: Will we be better with those guys over a period of time?” Stammen said. “Not just one single first start. I know the reaction is this is their first start, and they didn't pitch their best. We're thankful that they're on our team. And we're looking forward to the next eight, nine, 10 starts -- and the playoff starts that they get."

Robbie Ray and Casey Mize were Deadline acquisitions brought on board to solidify the Padres’ rotation. Instead, well, they pitched like what the Padres have gotten from the final few spots in their rotation for most of the year.

Neither was about to make any excuses for their poor performances. So I’ll do it for them -- because I think there are reasonable mitigating circumstances.

Neither Mize nor Ray knew when or where they’d be pitching next. Neither of them had worked with either of the Padres’ catchers. Both of them were pitching on unusual rest schedules after having starts scratched.

And most importantly: Their track records are so much better than what they showed last week. Let’s see what they do this week against Milwaukee before we make any judgments.

2. Merrill is all the way back

The numbers show it. Merrill’s OPS is back above .700 after homers in consecutive games over the weekend. Among all the reasons for the Padres’ offensive surge, Merrill ranks near the top.

I think it’s more than the numbers that tell the story with Merrill. It’s the attitude.

One of Merrill’s best traits on the field -- maybe his best trait -- is his competitiveness. If he’s standing in the batter’s box with a clear mind and the intent to beat you … as a pitcher, you’re probably in trouble.

It didn’t look like that very often during the first half, though. Merrill has always been a free swinger. But it’s like he knew he was chasing too frequently and actively trying to stop doing so. Which led to some bizarre takes from a guy like Merrill -- takes on very hittable pitches.

But when we spoke with Merrill a couple weeks ago in Atlanta, I knew things were changing. He said, assertively, that he didn’t care if he swung at balls. That it was just part of his game.

And while that sounds counterintuitive, I thought it made perfect sense. Because when Merrill was swinging at balls in the first half, he let it affect his next swing -- and let it affect his competitiveness in the box. Oddly enough, by not worrying about those chases, Merrill has begun making better swing decisions.

Take Saturday for instance. Merrill fell behind 0-2 against Astros righty Peter Lambert. He laid off two fastballs above the zone, then a changeup below the zone. On 3-2, he launched his 17th homer of the season. He’s back.

3. It’s Rengifo reunion week

The Brewers have earned the benefit of the doubt by now. They own the best record in the National League. They were the top seed in the NL last year as well.

Still, it’s strange to me that they couldn’t make it work with Luis Rengifo. In 22 games, Rengifo is hitting .324 with an .851 OPS for the Padres.

In some ways, he feels like a perfect Brewer -- versatile, pesky, a threat on the bases. Their loss has been the Padres’ gain.

4. The Padres hope the same is true for Hays

The decision to sign Austin Hays to a Major League deal felt like a no-brainer -- and that was before his pinch-hit, two-run homer in Sunday’s series finale against the Astros. The Padres were keen to add an outfield bat at the Deadline but instead opted to allocate all of their resources to the starting rotation.

Fair enough. The need was much greater in the rotation. But left field has been a bit tricky. Especially against left-handed pitching. Rengifo is probably better suited playing elsewhere. Jase Bowen wasn’t doing enough at the plate.

Enter Hays, who had a .945 OPS against left-handers across the 2024 and ’25 seasons.

“You could argue you should trade somebody -- and we didn’t have to trade anybody to get him,” Stammen said.

Look, it’s been a stop-and-start season for Hays, who has dealt with multiple leg injuries and only played 12 games with the White Sox before he was designated for assignment. But after finishing his rehab stint, Hays says he’s fully healthy (and now very eager to build on his streak of three straight playoff appearances with three different teams).

Maybe it doesn’t work out in the long run. But the fit is so obvious, and it’s such a low-risk move, you do it 10 times out of 10.

5. No Miz this week -- the Padres need to capitalize

Jacob Misiorowski, the National League Cy Young Award favorite, started Sunday for the Brewers. That means the Padres don’t have to face him. And, no, the Padres won’t be throwing their ace, Michael King. But they’ll take that trade-off.

At this time of year, any little advantage counts. If you’re the type who pays attention to playoff odds, you’re noticing much bigger day-to-day swings in those odds. (I am that type, not because they’re gospel, just because they’re fun.)

The Padres should like their chances this week, with their revamped rotation and without the task of taking down the Miz. They can worry about that -- or at least they hope -- come October.