'Sign me up': Tigers control own fate going into Guards series

This story was excerpted from Jason Beck's Tigers Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

DETROIT -- Part of the role of a Major League manager, or most any leader, is to find order and perspective in the midst of what seems like chaos. Present a logical path through darkness, and others will follow. As the Tigers struggled to process Saturday’s loss to Atlanta, a game that was a pitch away from ending Detroit’s losing streak, A.J. Hinch showed the way out.

“This is absolutely grinding at these guys,” Hinch said. “It’s not a concern of the work or the conversations or the mood or the vibe. It’s a concern about the results, and these guys know it. I love these guys. I’m going to continue to back them because of all the good that we have done and all the good that we can do.

“Despite all of this, what a miserable ride this has been for a short period of time, guess who controls our own destiny? We just have to go out and play.”

A day and another loss later, Hinch doubled down.

“I don’t see our guys quitting. I don’t see our guys down. I don’t see our guys pouting. I don’t see our guys conceding. And we shouldn’t,” Hinch said. “I’m going to remind everybody that we’re a first-place team. And right now, it’s hard for everybody to look at us that way because of the way the last week went.

“We’re going to wake up in first place, with our destiny controlled by us, against a team that’s been as hot as you can get in baseball. And we get to play them in a three-game series? Sign me up.”

The Tigers have struggled to recreate not only the urgency of their incredible late-season run last year, but also the us-against-the-world feeling that allowed them to defy the odds and reach the postseason, then fueled them in the Wild Card series to beat an Astros team that had advanced to the ALCS in seven consecutive seasons.

“This year, we have that hunger,” Spencer Torkelson said last week, “but it’s harder to find it every single day.”

As they head to Cleveland for three games against the Guardians that will likely determine the AL Central champion, they have their urgency. For a team that has seemingly been preparing for the postseason since the Trade Deadline, the playoffs start now. And the way the last couple weeks have gone, the current projections aren't exactly kind to the Tigers.

• Skubal to face Guardians with Tigers clinging to 1-game lead

Playoff projections by Baseball Prospectus (66.8%), Fangraphs (64%) and Baseball Reference (59.4%) still favor the Tigers to win the division, but not nearly as strongly as a week ago. All of them project Detroit to finish at 88-74, one game ahead of Cleveland, essentially saying that both teams would be expected to go 3-3 this week, even though the Tigers have a tougher remaining schedule. But considering the Guardians swept the Tigers in Detroit last week, it’s not easy to find people expecting a Tigers turnaround, even though the road team has won nine of 10 games between the teams so far this season.

This is where the Tigers can draw a parallel to last season. Much like last year’s Wild Card series in Houston, they’re hitting the road for what is effectively a best-of-three series. And they have Tarik Skubal starting Game 1 trying to set the tone and give them a chance if they scrape a run or two off Gavin Williams or, like they did when Skubal and Williams matched up in Cleveland on July 6, get to the Guardians bullpen.

Win Tuesday behind Skubal, who has allowed one run in 22 innings against Cleveland this year, and not only does Detroit’s division lead grow to two games, the pressure that has seemingly focused on the Tigers for the last few weeks shifts to a Guardians team that has been playing with nothing to lose.

Ironically, that’s the way the Tigers have to play. The path out of their September swoon is the path they forged last year. But they have to charge into it at full speed.

Here are the potential scenarios coming out of Cleveland:

• If the Tigers win all three games, they would clinch the Central, holding a four-game lead with three games to play.

• If the Tigers take two of three, they would head to Boston still controlling their fate, needing any combination of two wins over the Wild Card-contending Red Sox or two Guardians losses to the Rangers, who come to Cleveland this weekend.

• If the Tigers lose two of three, the AL Central would be even heading into the final weekend, but the Guardians would hold the tiebreaker based on head-to-head records in the season series. Thus, Detroit would need to win in Boston and get help.

• If the Tigers get swept, they would still be mathematically alive. But with a two-game deficit and the tiebreaker working against them, they would need to win out and hope the Guardians somehow get swept. Any Tigers loss or Guardians win over the weekend would wrap up the Central for Cleveland and leave the Tigers hoping for a Wild Card berth.