These are the Twins' best bets at leadoff

BRADENTON, Fla. -- As it turns out, manager Rocco Baldelli and the Twins knew all along last spring that Max Kepler was destined for the leadoff spot in the lineup instead of Jorge Polanco. They just didn't want to put that out into the world so easily.

That could very well be the case again this season as the debate rages on throughout Twins Territory as to whether breakout rookie Luis Arraez would be a fit at the top of Minnesota's "Bomba Squad 2.0" lineup. Baldelli, of course, neither confirmed nor denied that.

"Our lineup is going to change a lot over the course of the year," he said with a coy smile.

So perhaps there's something to read into the fact that Baldelli slotted Arraez into the leadoff spot of his first Grapefruit League batting order in the Twins' 2-1 victory over the Pirates on Saturday. Likely not, though, since neither Kepler nor Polanco made the trip to Bradenton, making it hard to predict for sure how all of those potential leadoff options slot into the pecking order.

Baldelli did offer a strong endorsement of catcher Mitch Garver's performance leading off against left-handed starters last season, which could indicate that the brunt of this debate could only be relevant against righties. He also indicated that Spring Training results would likely have little bearing on his ultimate decision.

"There is some evaluation that goes on in camp, but our lineup -- and many things -- do not really depend on Spring Training performance," Baldelli said. "Spring Training performance is something to, I think, take with a grain of salt, sometimes."

It could take a while for the lineup against right-handers to get settled, since the Blue Jays have a lefty on the mound on Sunday. So in the meantime, let's take a look at the debate.

The upstart: Arraez
There's no big question as to why many have speculated that Arraez could inherit the leadoff spot, as there's something to love in the second baseman for traditionalists and forward-thinkers alike. He might not have the speed, but he has the slap-hitting contact ability to work pitchers for at-bats ahead of the big boppers in the lineup.

Factor in Arraez's team-leading .399 on-base percentage from last season, and it's easy to imagine a table-setter that can set up the likes of Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz and Miguel Sanó for RBI opportunities. The only possible downside? Arraez's lack of power means that all of the extra plate appearances afforded to the leadoff hitter will be going to a bat with less ability to change the game with one swing.

"It's something you certainly think about," Baldelli said. "The guy went out and had a .400 on-base percentage for us last year. It's a tremendous option for us, and we also had a guy who hit 30-some odd home runs and had the best year of his career offensively hitting in the leadoff spot, too. We'll have plenty of options."

The incumbent: Kepler
Kepler was thrust into a rather unfamiliar role when Baldelli and his staff approached him about leading off last spring, but he quickly took to the role and posted a career year with 36 homers and 32 doubles in a .252/.336/.519 season. His combination of a keen eye at the plate and newfound aggression in swinging at hittable pitches served the Twins well as a first man up.

The outfielder didn't necessarily have the on-base ability of Arraez or Polanco, but he posted the fourth-highest slugging percentage on the team last season without sacrificing the quality of his at-bats, which gave the Twins a tough out and plenty of pop in their lineup spot that came up most frequently last season. Kepler's comfort level, in growing into the role is also a factor for Baldelli.

"I think Kep right now has put himself in position where we do feel comfortable with him leading off," Baldelli said. "We’re going to hold off on any kind of lineup decisions, or really any kind of public discussions for now. It’s early in camp, we have a lot to figure out."

The dark horse: Polanco
Lost in much of this discussion is the fact that Polanco was also named a candidate for the leadoff role during Spring Training last year before Kepler ultimately took off with the job. When healthy, the Twins' shortstop also checks many of the boxes.

Polanco had a better on-base percentage (.356) than Kepler last season, though not as good as that of Arraez. He was similar to Kepler in his aversion to strikeouts (16.5 K%), though obviously, neither could hold a candle to Arraez in that regard. Polanco had much better power numbers than Arraez and runs well, which could give the Twins a very well-rounded presence atop their lineup.

Does Baldelli still think that his shortstop can be a factor in the leadoff spot?

"Yes, I do," Baldelli said. "And we've talked to our guys already this spring about the type of team and the type of lineup that we could have, and that guys could be hitting in spots that they might not be totally familiar with because we have to."