Twins, Guardians set for key clash in AL postseason race

It’s a big opportunity for the Guardians, and potentially a last stand for the Twins, as the American League Central rivals meet up for three games this weekend at Target Field. Minnesota (69-77) is in danger of falling out of the AL Wild Card race, while Cleveland (74-73) is trying to track down the division-leading White Sox and maintain its tenuous grip on the final Wild Card spot.

It’s the final series between the two clubs this year, with both teams coming off road trips and Thursday off-days.

What’s at stake for the Guardians

The Guardians will enter the weekend positioned in a postseason spot. Their goal is to leave Minneapolis with that still the case. No matter what the White Sox do this weekend, the Guards must control what they can control: winning their own games. If Chicago slips up during its three-game weekend series in St. Louis, all the better.

The Guardians will enter Friday no more than 2 1/2 games out of first place in the division, pending the outcome of the White Sox series finale with the Pirates on Thursday. It’s crucial that they keep the deficit in a manageable spot this weekend. The Guardians will host the White Sox in a critical three-game series beginning Monday that could swing the AL Central race.

What’s at stake for the Twins

To call this a “last stand” may be a little bit too dramatic, but not much. The Twins have fallen 4 1/2 games behind Cleveland in the race for the final AL Wild Card spot with 16 games remaining.

That’s a tough margin to make up, and it becomes almost impossible once you run out of head-to-head meetings. If the Twins win the series, they have a slight chance of catching the Guardians. If they sweep, they’re right back in the mix. If they lose the series? It starts getting awfully late.

Following this weekend, the Twins have only one more head-to-head series against another team contending in the AL Wild Card race, at home against Texas from Sept. 25-27 in the final weekend of the regular season.

How the Guardians' pitching shakes out

Parker Messick will look to get the Guardians back on track after their series loss in Baltimore this week. The AL Rookie of the Year Award and AL Cy Young Award contender is set to start Friday’s series opener in Minneapolis. He struck out a career-high 12 batters over six innings in his last start on Saturday vs. the Tigers.

Beyond Messick, the Guardians' weekend probable starters were TBD as of Wednesday.

Gavin Williams last pitched on Sunday. That would line him up to start Saturday against the Twins on five days’ rest. But that could render him unavailable for next week’s series against the White Sox, barring the big right-hander coming back on short rest to face Chicago.

Another potential factor is the next steps for lefty Joey Cantillo, who has dealt with recent command troubles and struggled against the Orioles on Monday (2 1/3 innings, four runs on three hits, five walks and two hit batters). Manager Stephen Vogt at least didn’t rule out the possibility of using an opener ahead of Cantillo, which could be a means to get him deeper into his next outing, though nothing was decided as of the series in Baltimore.

“We're talking about a lot of different scenarios with the rotation,” Vogt said Tuesday. “We don't know what we're going to do coming out of the off-day yet. There's a lot of factors to talk through, and we're always looking at what's the best possibility for us to win the game.”

How the Twins’ pitching shakes out

The good news for Minnesota is that its two best starters will both pitch in this series. Taj Bradley is set to go Friday, looking to win his third straight start. He’s been tremendous at Target Field this year, with a 3.30 home ERA and an average of more than six innings per start.

On Sunday it will be Joe Ryan, making his second start following a monthlong injured-list stint due to a strained left glute. He had a couple of hiccups in his return from the IL, but overall looked very good, with his stuff resembling what he was doing in the first half before he got hurt. Ryan probably will still be on something of a pitch count, but he’s nonetheless the Twins’ best starter.

In between? That’s TBD. Manager Derek Shelton has a variety of options and isn’t tipping his hand which way he’ll go. He could choose an opener or a bullpen game. He could start rookie Connor Prielipp on four days’ rest, or veteran Bailey Ober on five. Ryan and Prielipp piggybacked on Monday in Detroit, and Shelton also recently deployed an opener in front of Prielipp.

The other good news is that the Twins’ best relievers are very well-rested. The club’s primary back-end options, Yoendrys Gómez, Jeff Hoffman, Andrew Morris and A.J. Minter, all will enter the weekend with two days off since their last appearance.