Who could round out the Braves' rotation in 2027?

ATLANTA -- Here is a quick look at each of the pitchers that must be accounted for when getting a feel for what needs to be addressed regarding the Braves’ rotation this offseason.

Tyler Mahle: While Mahle might not be considered the top starting pitcher available on the free-agent market, he might be the Braves’ top target. Would the 32-year-old righty be worth $15 million to $18 million per year over the next few years? He would if he pitches like he did while posting a 1.99 ERA in the nine starts he made for Atlanta after being acquired from the Giants at the Trade Deadline.

Mahle improved with the pitch mix adjustments he made over his final month in San Francisco. But he truly thrived once he further reduced his cutter usage after joining the Braves. He worked well with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and has said he would welcome the chance to continue pitching for Atlanta.

Should the 3.59 xERA Mahle produced in nine regular-season starts for Atlanta create reason to pause? Not really. That was MLB’s 27th-best mark among all qualified pitchers going back to Aug. 7, the day Mahle made his Atlanta debut.

Beyond Tarik Skubal, this year’s free-agent market doesn’t include any legitimate aces. Freddy Peralta’s late season and postseason success strengthened his market. Sonny Gray’s age-36 season arm enabled him to enter free agency with momentum. But when you account for familiarity, risk and cost, Mahle might make the most sense for the Braves, who will also need money to address needs at shortstop, left field and in the bullpen.

Spencer Strider: The Braves say Strider will be a full go at the start of Spring Training. That’s encouraging news. But his availability to pitch doesn’t guarantee his surgically repaired right elbow will ever allow him to be the dependable and effective starter he once was. Strider made just eight starts this year before he suffered an elbow injury in June and disappeared from the radar over the remainder of the season.

Strider was throwing bullpens at the team’s Spring Training complex near the end of the season. He created great hope with the six scoreless innings he threw on May 9 at Dodger Stadium. But after having had two UCL surgeries, Strider might never be durable enough to throw five-plus innings every five or six days over six-plus months. But this doesn’t rule out the possibility that he might still be an effective reliever.

Spencer Schwellenbach: After Schwellenbach fractured his elbow during the 2025 season, he did everything he could to avoid the surgery he ultimately underwent in September, when a screw was placed in his elbow. There aren’t too many Major Leaguers who have pitched with an elbow screw. Most have been relievers. This is why Schwellenbach waited more than a year before finally conceding this surgery was necessary.

Like with Strider, the Braves can’t confidently project Schwellenbach to be an integral piece of next year’s rotation.

Didier Fuentes: The Braves will determine the 21-year-old hurler’s role after stretching him out as a starter during Spring Training. If Fuentes is put in the rotation, he likely wouldn’t be asked to throw more than 120-130 innings during the regular season. He threw a professional-high 80 1/3 innings (postseason included) this year.

Chris Sale, Bryce Elder and Grant Holmes: These three pitchers stand as the only internal options who could currently be projected to make 25-plus starts in an effective manner next year. Sale’s slightly scaled-back schedule this past season might be mimicked during his 38-year-old season.

AJ Smith-Shawver, Joey Wentz, JR Ritchie and Owen Murphy: Smith-Shawver has the highest upside of these four potential depth pieces. But he must prove he can be a dependable starter. He was heading in the right direction before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2025. Now further removed from this elbow procedure, ‘27 might be the year he finally puts it all together.

Conclusion: The Braves could be in good position if they were to enter ‘27 with their rotation consisting of Sale, Mahle, Elder, Holmes and Fuentes. Smith-Shawver, Wentz, Ritchie and possibly Strider could provide the always-important quality depth at the start of the season. Murphy could further develop and highly regarded prospect Cam Caminiti (Braves’ No. 2 prospect, No. 39 overall) could be ready at some point in ‘27.

Adding at least one proven starting pitcher seems to be a must. But it could be argued that adding a right-handed impact bat is actually a more significant offseason need.